Israel Matzav

Officials in Jerusalem claimed on Saturday that the US would release imprisoned Israeli spy Jonathan Pollard in exchanged for Israel releasing jailed Fatah leader Marwan Barghouti.

According to Army Radio, Israel is set to offer the proposed prisoner swap deal in the next few months, and it follows the unfolding anarchy in the Palestinian Authority. Seemingly, Israel intends to use Barghouti's release to strengthen the Fatah movement following the much criticized rule of the new Hamas-led Palestinian government.

In 2004 Israel suggested a similar move but it was rejected by the US government. Jerusalem officials predicted that on this occasion the White House would accept the proposal.

Pollard, a former Mossad agent, was convicted of selling US military secrets to Israel, while he worked at the Defense Department's Pentagon headquarters. He was arrested in 1985 and pleaded guilty to the espionage charges. He was sentenced to life in prison, and has been incarcerated for the past 21 years.

While I see how releasing Barghouti would help Fatah, I don't see how it would help Israel, and I think it weakens our deterrent capability in the future by showing that any terrorist will eventually be released. For Israel, releasing Barghouti makes a farce of our taking 'prisoners.' It tells the terrorists: do what you want and don't fear arrest - we will release you eventually. Of course, we do that anyway... and that also doesn't help....

Update 8:30 AM

This story got linked by LGF (thanks for the hat tip Charles!).

I have a few more thoughts for you on this. First of all, who would want this deal and why. The US wants Barghouti released because it will strengthen Fatah. Whether they want him released badly enough to release Pollard is less clear. Suffice it to say that in 1998, Bill Clinton may or may not have committed to release Pollard in payment for the Wye (Why, Why, Wye?) Accords and then did not do so. The US also turned down an exchange for Barghouti in 2004. Will the third time be the charm? With Casper Weinberger gone just a couple of weeks ago, it seems more possible than before.

The new Olmert government wants Barghouti released because it wants a 'partner' on the 'Palestinian' side. Olmert knows that he cannot talk to Hamas and that Israelis will eventually oppose a unilateral withdrawal expulsion of Jews from Judea and Samaria that leaves another 80,00-100,000 people homeless. A pullback that is the result of an agreement with a 'Palestinian' other will be a lot more palatable to many Israelis.

Fatah wants Barghouti released because Mahmud Abbas Abu Mazen is weak and inept and unpopular and Fatah is still seen as corrupt on the 'Palestinian street.' Replacing Mazen with Barghouti brings in 'young blood' (Barghouti is in his 40's) that is seen as 'clean.' The bonus for Fatah is that Barghouti is a folk hero of the 'intifadeh' having been sent to jail for only a fraction of the terror attacks in which he was involved.

Who doesn't want Barghouti released? Hamas, which views him as a threat. And Israelis with a strong sense of justice and a fear that releasing Barghouti sends a message to the 'Palestinians' that it's okay to commit acts of terror, because ultimately they will be released from jail anyway.

Who wants Pollard released? At this point, I think that both the United States and Israel want Pollard released. That Israel should want Pollard released should be no surprise to anyone. Israel behaved shamefully for the first thirteen years that Pollard was behind bars (1985-98), first claiming that it knew nothing of the affair, and then refusing to raise the Pollard issue at several opportune times to do so. To his credit, Bibi Netanyahu went to the wall for Pollard in 1998 (although I still believe that signing the Wye Accords was a mistake) and by his actions embarassed each of his successors into raising Pollard at every opportunity.

At this point, I think the United States also has an interest in releasing Pollard. His punishment is disproportionate to any other spy affair in American history, whether they were caught spying for friend or foe. Rumors have circulated recently that Pollard was framed by convicted spy Aldrich Ames - the worst spy in American history. Pollard is not Aldrich Ames or Robert Hanssen. It's an embarassment to the United States that they have been holding a man who spied for their most loyal ally for twenty-one years. Pollard is a stain on US - Israel relations. He can be released, deported to Israel (which has granted him citizenship) and barred from re-entering the United States. He would never be heard from again. He is not like Israeli nuclear spy Mordechai Vanunu, who has an interest in exacting revenge against the country of his birth (and who has been released but not allowed to leave Israel). With Casper Weinberger gone, the United States' interest in releasing Pollard may come to the fore.

The 'Palestinians' should be indifferent to Pollard's fate.

My personal feeling: I would like to see Pollard released. I think that he has more than paid his debt to American society. But I think that releasing Barghouti would be a mistake on Israel's part. We have made far too many 'prisoner exchanges' over the years. The one 'prisoner' we have never released is Samir Kantar because his acts were too heinous. I think that the same can be said about Barghouti. Releasing Barghouti would be morally reprehensible.