Israel Matzav

Of all the powers involved in the current showdown with the Islamic Republic, only Russia is in a position to tip the balance between a peaceful resolution and war.

To start with, Russia, which is building an Iranian power plant near Bushehr, could slow down, or even suspend the project pending a diplomatic resolution of the crisis.

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The Russian position at the Security Council is crucial because China, which also has a veto, would not be prepared to isolate itself by siding with Iran if Russia sided with the United States. If Russia vetoes, so will China. If Russia does not veto, the most China might do is abstain.

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Russia needs the Islamic Republic as part of Moscow's effort to curtail US influence in Central Asia, the Caspian Basin and the Middle East.

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Having lost all of its Arab clients of the Soviet era, Moscow also needs Teheran as a bridgehead to the Middle East, the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean. The current analysis in Moscow is that once Bush is gone, Iran will emerge as the dominant power in Iraq and will need Russia as a strategic partner in developing such major oil fields as Majnun, which sits astride the Irano-Iraqi frontier.

It is also in conjunction with the Islamic Republic that Russia envisages making a comeback in such places as Syria and Lebanon, where Iranian influence is already well-established.

THE US is not the only strategic rival that Russia has identified. Also looming on the horizon is China, which many Moscow analysts see as a potential threat to Russian interests in Asia and the Middle East.

In that context a Sino-Iranian axis could isolate Russia in Western Asia and the Middle East and even shut it out of chunks of Central Asia.
Another reason why Moscow needs the Islamic Republic is related to the so-called Islamic time-bomb that is ticking in the heart of the Russian federation. With birthrates among ethnic Russians in free fall, the federation's Muslims, now a fifth of the population, are slated to double by the middle of the century.

The Islamic Republic, although a Shi'ite power, could nevertheless play a role in discouraging secessionist tendencies among Russia's Muslims. Conversely, a hostile Iran could use its immense experience in exporting terrorism to make life difficult for Russia.

Add to all that the fact that Iran is the biggest market for Russian arms, including aircraft and submarines. The loss of the Iranian orders could force entire lines of Russian weapons industries to close down.

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