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Wednesday, August 20, 2008

LA Times: It's a dead heat

An LA Times/Bloomberg poll that was just released has the US Presidential race as a dead heat. But this poll has lots of interesting factoids in it:
Voters favor Obama on the economy, the issue they rank as most important. McCain's supporters remain less enthusiastic than those of his rival. And independents, a crucial swing bloc, are leaning toward Obama.

Also, the Republican Party's dismal standing under President Bush remains a drag on McCain's candidacy: 75% of voters say the country is seriously on the wrong track.

Overall, Obama holds a narrow edge over the Arizona senator, 45% to 43%, which falls within the poll's margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. In June, Obama was ahead by 12 points. Other polls at that time showed him with a narrower lead.

More striking than the head-to-head matchup, however, is the drop in Obama's favorable rating in the run-up to his selection of a running mate and the Democratic National Convention next week in Denver.

Obama's favorable rating has sunk to 48% from 59% since the last Times/Bloomberg poll in June. At the same time, his negative rating has risen to 35% from 27%.

By comparison, McCain's ratings have hardly budged during the same period: 46% of voters have a positive feeling about him; 38% give him negative ratings.


The survey found that 63% of voters have confidence in Obama's ability to deal wisely with an international crisis, while 77% feel that way about McCain.

McCain and his allies have portrayed Obama in recent weeks as a naive celebrity who is unprepared to lead the nation in dangerous times. McCain, a Navy aviator who was a prisoner of war in Vietnam, has also suggested that Obama would put personal ambition ahead of America's best interests.

With that backdrop, the poll found that 35% of voters have questions about how patriotic Obama is; only 9% wondered how patriotic McCain is. Nearly half of voters say Obama lacks the right experience to be president, while 14% feel that way about McCain.

The poll found that McCain, long an unpopular figure among conservatives, has had more success than Obama in rallying his party's base. Nine out of 10 Republicans favor McCain, while just under 8 in 10 Democrats support Obama.

But independents, who could wind up deciding the election, favor Obama, 47% to 36%.

And Obama's backers are more enthusiastic than McCain's, suggesting that the Democrat holds greater potential for a strong turnout of supporters. The poll found that 78% of Obama's supporters were enthusiastic about his candidacy; 61% of McCain's backers felt that way.
Read it all. Here in Israel, we prefer McCain!


At 12:22 AM, Blogger Thud said...

for the deranged 9% just what does McCain have to do to prove his patriotism?

At 2:22 AM, Blogger Findalis said...

Isn't it ironic that the anointed one isn't ahead in the polls. By the way the MSM acts, Obama should be at least 10-15 points ahead. I doubt he'll get much of a bounce from the convention. Maybe 1-3 points. On the other hand, McCain could get a whooping 10 point bounce from his convention.


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