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Sunday, June 22, 2008

ElBaradei: Iran 6-12 months from a nuclear weapon

We now have a fuller version of the interview with Mohamed ElBaradei on Al-Arabiye from Friday, and it's a doozer. The bottom line is that Iran is six to twelve months away from a nuclear weapon according to the UN's feckless nuclear 'watchdog.'

Let's go to the videotape. A transcript follows.

Following are excerpts from an interview with IAEA Director-General Dr. Muhammad Al-Baradei, which aired on Al-Arabiya TV on June 20, 2008.

Muhammad Al-Baradei: If Iran wants to turn to the production of nuclear weapons, it must leave the NPT, expel the IAEA inspectors, and then it would need at least... Considering the number of centrifuges and the quantity of uranium Iran has...

Interviewer: How much time would it need?

Muhammad Al-Baradei: It would need at least six months to one year. Therefore, Iran will not be able to reach the point where we would wake up one morning to an Iran with a nuclear weapon.

Interviewer: Excuse me, I would like to clarify this for our viewers. If Iran decides today to expel the IAEA from the country, it will need six months...

Muhammad Al-Baradei: Or one year, at least...

Interviewer:... to produce [nuclear] weapons?

Muhammad Al-Baradei: It would need this period to produce a weapon, and to obtain highly-enriched uranium in sufficient quantities for a single nuclear weapon.


In my view, a military strike would be the worst thing possible. It would turn the Middle East into a ball of fire.

Interviewer: It would be worse than sanctions?

Muhammad Al-Baradei: Much worse, because a military strike would mean, first and foremost, that even if Iran does not produce nuclear weapons today, it would implement a so-called "crash course," or an accelerated plan to produce a nuclear weapon, with the agreement and blessing of all the Iranians – even the Iranians living in the West.


Interviewer: Dr. Al-Baradei, what do the Iranian officials tell you when you confront them about the need for more transparency?

Muhammad Al-Baradei: They say there will be more transparency, but at the end of the day, I'd rather wait to see this transparency.


I always think of resigning in the event of a military strike.

Interviewer: You will resign in the event that...

Muhammad Al-Baradei: If military force is used, I would conclude that there is no mechanism left for me to defend.

Interviewer: This is a threat directed at the Americans – if you strike, I will resign.

Muhammad Al-Baradei: I am not doing this for material profit. If I was working in the private sector, I would... I am doing this out of the conviction that I am defending shared values. If we deviate from these shared values...

Interviewer: So there is no justification for an attack...

Muhammad Al-Baradei: The day I believe that the international system has begun to collapse is the day I will resign.


Interviewer: If the world reaches a consensus that there is no solution but to attack Iran, would you still resign? What if Europe, America, and the entire West agree that the only resolution is a military one?

Muhammad Al-Baradei: I don't think that what we are seeing today in Iran poses a clear, imminent, and immediate danger.

Interviewer: But in a year or two, it could become...

Muhammad Al-Baradei: If this happens, it will be a different story, but if a military strike is launched against Iran now, in my opinion, I will have no choice but to...

Interviewer: So there is no justification for a strike against Iran today.

Muhammad Al-Baradei: None whatsoever. There will be no point for me to continue doing my work if military force is used at present.


At 5:57 PM, Blogger Tiny Bunch said...

If there is a military strike on Iran he'll have to resign. No more reason for Iran to pay him the bribes since by then he would have failed them.

At 12:26 AM, Blogger NormanF said...

I don't think Israel is going to wait that long. Putting off action will be foolhardy and its clear diplomacy and sanctions have reached a dead end. For Israel, stopping the Iranian threat is an "ein breira" situation. There's no option in doing nothing and faced with a regime who goal is to wipe the Jewish State (G-d forbid) off the map, there is only one answer. Hopefully, that response will come soon.

At 1:30 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

El-Baradei is not to be trusted,
If he says 6 - 12 months you can be sure of a much shorter period of time.
For Israel to delay the inevitable, based upon
El-Baradei's stated time estimate, could leave it with no time and no options left.

"Muhammad Al-Baradei: I am not doing this for material profit. If I was working in the private sector, I would... I am doing this out of the conviction that I am defending shared values. If we deviate from these shared values..."

I wonder whose shared values he is so staunchly defending.


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