Israel Matzav

Thursday, January 02, 2014

The Jordan Valley obsession

Maariv, a Hebrew-only daily, reports that the Defense Ministry has told the United States that it cannot accept the American 'security plan' for Israel and the 'Palestinians.'

The US's security plan involves a slow transition from IDF patrols over the region to Palestinian Authority (PA) forces, with an international presence, according to reports. IDF drones would also be deployed over the area, as a means of gathering information about any terrorist activity that could potentially develop there.

The Israeli government has insisted that the region is of crucial importance to Israel's future, and has been critical of plans to hand over the area to the PA. Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has insisted that in the event that Israel withdrew from Judea and Samaria, as per Kerry's plans, the Jordan Valley be kept under Israeli control.

The US's plan is based on the 1967 "Allon Plan," which received wide acclaim at the time. The plan insists that the Jordan Valley is the key to Israel's security, even in the event of a withdrawal to 1949 Armistice Lines; however, analysts have noted that the rest of Judea and Samaria is actually more crucial to Israel's security than the Jordan Valley itself.

Despite this, the Israeli government has insisted that its only "red line" would be maintaining its presence in the Valley. On Sunday, a Ministerial Cabinet approved a bill to annex the Valley on that premise.

Read the last clause of the second sentence of the third paragraph again:

however, analysts have noted that the rest of Judea and Samaria is actually more crucial to Israel's security than the Jordan Valley itself.

If that's true - and one look at a topographical map makes it very obvious why that's true - why is Israel obsessing with the Jordan Valley. In my view, it's a gamble to kill the deal altogether. If Israel were insisting on the high ground of the Samarian mountains (which is what really is critical from a security perspective), then you could in theory reach a compromise on the borders.

But if we insist on the Jordan Valley - and on what would be a logistical nightmare of transiting people between Jerusalem and the Jordan Valley through the 'Palestinian state' on a regular basis - I believe that insistence is grounded in the hope (at least at the Defense Ministry - I believe that Netanyahu genuinely wants a deal) that it will cause the 'negotiations' to bog down and collapse.

Right now, that potential collapse of the 'negotiations' may be our best hope.

Labels: Binyamin Netanyahu, borders and security, defensible borders, interim borders, Jordan Valley, Judea and Samaria, secure borders, temporary borders

Monday, March 07, 2011

Netanyahu trying to buy off Haredim?

I've mentioned before how we get free newspapers in our mailbox a couple of times a week. One of them showed up this morning (Monday), and reports that in preparation for Prime Minister Netanyahu's new 'peace initiative,' he plans to buy off the Haredim (ultra-Orthodox) by allowing them to build new housing in the ultra-Orthodox 'settlements' (like Beitar and Kiryat Sefer) and in 'east' Jerusalem neighborhoods (like Ramat Shlomo). Because the Haredim are desperate for new housing, Netanyahu calculates that by throwing them this concession, their parties will not join with the more nationalist parties (like National Union and Jewish Home) and the right wing of the Likud in opposing his new initiative.

You will recall that the new initiative calls for giving the 'Palestinians' a 'state' with 'temporary borders,' which would likely consist of about 60% of Judea and Samaria. It would not necessitate dismantling any Jewish cities or towns in Judea or Samaria.

According to the article, which appears in a paper-only Hebrew publication called b'Mercaz ha'Inyanim (In the Center of Matters), which is specifically directed at the Haredi community, the thaw in the housing market will not be limited to Haredim. The thaw will also include the 'settlement blocs' like Maaleh Adumim and Gush Etzion. However, the 'settlement blocs' constitute far less than the amount of land in Judea and Samaria that Netanyahu proposes to retain when he gifts the 'Palestinians' a 'state' with 'temporary borders.' The 'settlement blocs' constitute less than 10% of Judea and Samaria. No housing permits will be issued for those towns that are outside the 'settlement blocs,' and they will be 'dried out' by not being allowed to expand.

What could go wrong?

Labels: Binyamin Netanyahu, Palestinian state, temporary borders