US President Hussein Obama and US Secretary of State John Kerry are finally listening to Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu. Prime Minister Netanyahu told Israeli Army Radio on Tuesday that there is no reason for Kerry to come to Israel now, and so Kerry will skip Israel on a trip to the region this coming week that is meant to reassure skeptical allies about the Iran nuclear sellout.
Netanyahu, a fierce critic of the nuclear accord, said that the Iran
deal “has nothing to do with us, and has no influence” on Israeli
policy, before adding, “We’re not at the table, we are one of the
courses on the menu itself.”
Netanyahu was on an official
visit to Cyprus on Tuesday, where he spoke about the international
terrorist network supplied by Iran and its proxy Hezbollah. Netanyahu
said that the sophisticated network “covers over 30 countries on five
continents, including just about every country in Europe.”
...
In defending his alleged snub to the Jewish state, Kerry said, “I
think I’ve had more meetings with an Israeli prime minister and more
visits than any secretary of state in history. And I consider Bibi a
friend, and we talk still and we disagree on this, obviously, and I’ve
told him my feelings.”
I can't wait until Netanyahu's book comes out to hear what 'Bibi' thinks of their 'friendship.'
Ash Carter was in Israel hoping to begin a dialogue on how the U.S.
and Israel can mitigate risks of the international accord intended to
limit Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons and to lift many economic
sanctions. But Carter didn’t even get to begin that beginning. Netanyahu
is said to have insisted on talking only about how the Israeli
government would work against the deal while Congress is reviewing the
accord for 60 days, a period mandated by recent legislation.
An
Israeli official familiar with the conversations told us this week that
Israel is for now trying to thwart the deal. But that could change on
Day 61, the official said.
Carter confirmed on Wednesday that in
the meeting, Netanyahu "was very clear as he has been publicly in his
opposition to the deal." And a U.S. defense official told us that in the
meeting, Netanyahu didn’t explicitly rebuke the defense secretary. In
fact, at other meetings in the trip, Carter discussed expanded security
cooperation with Israel, and the official said Carter left optimistic
despite tension on Iran.
...
"The decision makers in Israel believe we don't start the dialogue
now because it will be used to make it seem like we acquiesce on the
deal,” said Michael Herzog, a former senior Israeli defense official and
the brother of the leader of Israel's Labor Party. All of Israel’s
major political parties have come out against the deal.
The
Israeli campaign for now is focused on Democrats in Congress. Israel's
ambassador to Washington, Ron Dermer, has had dozens of meetings with
lawmakers, urging them to vote against the deal after the review period
ends in September, according to Senate and House lawmakers and staff
members.
While Dermer and allies like AIPAC
are working Capitol Hill, Netanyahu will have lots of opportunities to
make his case directly to lawmakers as well. Dozens of U.S. lawmakers
will travel to Israel during the August recess. House Minority Whip
Steny Hoyer, a key and as yet uncommitted vote on the Iran deal, will
lead a group of freshman Democratic members of Congress to Israel next
month.
Meanwhile, as soon as the vote in Congress is over, the Obama administration is likely to allow a resolution that will be aimed at mandating 'Palestinian statehood' to pass the United Nations Security Council, and Obama may give us bunker busters, which he will of course prevent us from ever using.
Obama administration trying to bribe Israel to accept Iran deal
The Hussein Obama administration is trying to bribe Israel to just be quiet and accept Iran's becoming a nuclear power, according to twostories in the Times of Israel (Hat Tip: Sunlight).
According to the story at the first link above, the US plans to 'compensate' Israel for a 'quiet acceptance' of the US consenting to Iran becoming a nuclear power.
The package could include an increase in the
number of F-35 fighter jets the US is to supply Israel, and additional
batteries for Israel’s anti-missile defense systems, according to
reports in both Haaretz (Hebrew) and Yedioth Ahronoth this week.
A senior Obama administration official told
Yedioth that “the White House is willing to pay a hefty price to get
some quiet from the Israelis at this point. We are surprised the demand
has not been made.”
They're surprised? I'm not. This isn't about money and it isn't even about getting more military equipment. And by the way, am I the only one who notices the irony of the Nobel Peace Prize Winner offering military equipment to a former ally to get them to acquiesce in their sworn enemy stepping up to a new level of military power?
But the newspaper also quoted an unnamed Israeli source as conveying a more ambivalent stance about the reported talks.
“If we come with demands at this point, it
would mean that we have given up our objections to the deal, and now it
is just a matter of at what price. If Israel believes that the deal is
bad for its security, it cannot appear as someone who gave up in the
end,” the paper quoted the source as saying.
According to the reports in both Haaretz and
Yedioth, the US-Israel talks revolved around enhancing a previously
negotiated deal to supply Israel with 33 F-35 aircraft, the first batch
of which was expected next year. The total number of jets could go up to
50, Haaretz reported.
By the way, the Sunni Muslim Gulf State are being offered similar 'compensation packages'....
According to the second story, the State Department and the Pentagon have already approved the 'compensation package.' But listen to what it includes:
If the agreement is finalized, Israel will
receive a supply of precision-guided munitions consisting of 750 bunker
buster bombs, 3,000 Hellfire missiles, 250 medium-range air-to-air
missiles and 4,100 glide bombs, in a deal worth $1.879 billion.
In addition, the package includes 14,500
missile guidance systems — known as tail kits for Joint Direct Attack
Munitions — which convert unguided bombs into GPS guided missiles.
And the US is now claiming that Israel 'asked' for the deal, while Israel is claiming that this has nothing to do with Iran.
According to the agency, Israel requested the sale, which only includes types of weapons Israel already has.
“The proposed sale of this equipment will
provide Israel the ability to support its self-defense needs. These
munitions will enable Israel to maintain operational capability of its
existing systems and will enhance Israel’s interoperability with the
United States,” the statement read.
...
A Defense Ministry source told Israel Radio
the deal had nothing to do with Iran nuclear talks or any other conflict
in the Gulf region.
A report in Israeli media Tuesday indicated
the US and Israel were discussing a so-called compensation package that
would see Washington sell Jerusalem advanced weapons, including more
F-35 jets, in exchange for the Netanyahu government’s quiet acceptance
of the emerging nuclear deal with Iran.
So instead of stopping Iran himself, Obama is giving everyone else in the Middle East the capability of doing so themselves (that's what the bunker busters are for). Nobel Peace Prize? What could go wrong?
Wow! SIX MORE Hamas commanders were supposed to be in bunker busted meeting
Six more senior Hamas commanders were supposed to be at a meeting that Israel broke up with three bunker busters on Thursday morning, killing Mohammed Abu Shamalah, Raed al-Atar and Mohammed Barhum. Hamas is so scared of what has happened that they have charged an additional 150 people as 'collaborators.'
Hamas's "military wing", the Ezzedine al-Qassam Brigades, issued a
statement on Sunday saying that the men had been arrested over "security
leaks", a source told the Arabic-language outlet. The source claimed
Hamas was "in a state of confusion" following the elimination of three top al-Qassam Brigades commanders, Mohammed
Abu Shamalah, Raed al-Attar and Mohammed Barhum on Thursday, as well as
an attempted assassination of the Brigades's top leader, Mohammed Deif.
Hamas claims Deif survived the attack, which killed his wife and two
of his children, but has not issued any word on his condition.
Compounding the group's fears is the fact that the Israeli Air Force
strike killed Abu Shamala, Attar and Barhum as they met in a top-secret
bunker some 30 meters underground. Six other commanders were reportedly
due to join them, but the decision appears to have been taken to
eliminate them as soon as they were together, to avoid the possibility
of any of them getting away.
And the assassinations of top Hamas leaders has continued since, with the group's top financial chief and "Justice Minister", Mohammed al-Ghoul, taken out by an Israeli airstrike on Sunday.
The bunker was located under the home of the "Kilab" family, and the
IAF targeted the house and the tunnel beneath it with bunker-buster
bombs weighing up to three tons, both ensuring the elimination of the
terrorists and avoiding unnecessary damage to surrounding homes as much
as possible.
Their liquidation essentially wiped out Hamas's entire southern military command in Gaza.
Why aren't we doing the same with Shifa Hospital, where the most senior Hamas commanders are hiding out?
The JPost is reporting that the 'Palestinians' are accusing Israel of attempting to assassinate Ezzadein al-Qassam brigades commander Mohammed Deif (center) on Tuesday night.
Hamas leader Mousa Abu Marzouk charged on Wednesday after Gaza truce talks collapsed in a spasm of violence that Israel had targeted the group's armed wing leader Muhammad Deif in one of its air strikes on Tuesday in the coastal territory.
The Israeli military would not specify any of the targets of some 30 attacks across Gaza in response to rocket fire aimed at Israel. Marzouk said Israel had ruptured the truce alleging it was in order "to assassinate Muhammad Deif," but that civilians were killed at the site of the attack.
Palestinian health officials said three people were killed in a strike on a house in Gaza City, including a child and a woman. The third victim was not identified.
Israeli media said Israel had been targeting another leading Hamas militant in charge of rocket fire, but did not know whether or not he had survived the attack.
Deif is certainly a legitimate military target, and if he uses his home as a command post (which is likely), his home is also a legitimate military target.
The Sydney Morning Herald reports that two civilians were killed in the strike - Deif's wife and daughter.
"The wife of the great leader was martyred with his daughter," in a strike on Tuesday night, Hamas' exiled deputy leader Moussa Abu Marzouk wrote on Facebook on Wednesday.
He said nothing about the fate of Mr Deif himself. He said Israel had been looking for "an excuse to target a big Hamas leader".
Palestinian emergency services revised an earlier report of three killed in the strike on a large house in the city's Sheikh Radwan neighbourhood and said the victims were a woman and a two-year-old girl.
...
Mr Deif was appointed head of Hamas' military wing, the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades, in 2002 after the death of his predecessor Salah Shehade in a raid.
Mr Deif had survived at least five previous Israeli attempts to kill him.
An Israeli diplomatic source confirmed Wednesday morning to Walla! that Israel tried overnight to eliminate Mohammed Deif, the head of Hamas's "military wing," the Ezzedine Al-Qassam Brigades.
Hamas has claimed that five bunker-buster bombs were fired by Israel targeting the elusive mastermind behind Hamas's terror war.
...
While Deif's condition is currently unknown, local health officials quoted by Reuters said
three people were killed in a strike on a house in Gaza City, including
a child and a woman, possibly Deif's wife and daughter. The third death
was not identified, leaving speculation open that the IAF may in fact
have hit its mark.
Interior Minister Gideon Sa'ar (Likud) commented on the latest
attempt to end Deif's life; the terrorist leader has until now evaded
five IDF assassination attempts, losing both of his legs in one airstrike.
Deif "is exactly like (former Al Qaeda leader Osama) Bin Laden," appraised Sa'ar, speaking to Galei Tzahal (IDF Radio). "This is an arch-murderer. Where there is an operational opportunity to eliminate him - it must be taken."
Note that the Arutz Sheva report - published an hour ago - is four hours later than the Sydney Morning Herald report.
Hmmm.
P.S. Why can't we use bunker busters to target the bunker under Shifa Hospital the same way?
Israeli air force reportedly drops new leaflets over #Gaza: "Hamas commanders hiding in underground bunkers are not safe"
— Daniel Nisman (@DannyNis) August 3, 2014
Michael Makovsky and David Deptula still hold out hope for the Obama administration doing something to stop Iran. They suggest the US giving Israel the largest and most powerful bunker busters (which Israel does not have), the massive ordinance penetrator (MOP) and lending it the B-52 bombers to deliver the MOP's. It's a great idea, but I see little chance of Obama doing it.
President Obama has already taken one
potential source of leverage off the table by promising to veto
legislation that threatens tighter economic sanctions on Iran. This
leaves military pressure as the only option. But after the Obama
administration's unenforced "red lines" in Syria and Ukraine, Iran is
understandably dismissive of the threat of U.S. military action. That
leaves Israel.
The U.S. has previously
recognized the importance of Israeli military pressure against Iran's
nuclear-weapons program, some of which is fortified and buried
underground. In 2012, President Obama signed the United States-Israel
Enhanced Security Cooperation Act, which called for the delivery of
aerial refueling tankers and bunker-buster munitions to Israel.
Israel
has 2,000- and 5,000-pound bunker-buster bombs, some of which were
delivered by the Obama administration. Iranian planners, however, might
hope that these will prove insufficient to do major damage. The U.S.
should remove such doubt by providing Israel with the capability to
reach and destroy Iran's most deeply buried nuclear sites. The U.S.
could do this by providing an appropriate number of GBU-57 30,000-pound
bunker-buster bombs, known as the Massive Ordnance Penetrator or MOP,
and several B-52 bombers.
The Pentagon
has developed the MOP bomb specifically for destroying hardened targets.
It can penetrate as deeply as 200 feet underground before detonating,
more than enough capability to do significant damage to Iran's nuclear
program. There are no legal or policy limitations on selling MOPs to
Israel, and with an operational stockpile at Whiteman Air Force Base in
Missouri, the U.S. has enough in its arsenal to share.
Israel,
however, also lacks the aircraft to carry the MOP. Which means the U.S.
would need to provide planes capable of carrying such a heavy payload.
Only two can do so: the B-52 and the stealth B-2.
The
U.S. has only 20 B-2s and would not share such a core component of
nuclear deterrence. Nor is the Pentagon willing to part with active
B-52s. Of the 744 built since 1955, all but roughly 80 have been
decommissioned, sent to the "boneyard" at Davis-Monthan Air Force Base
in Arizona, and, in compliance with arms-control-treaty obligations,
mostly rendered inoperable. With plans for a new long-range bomber
delayed by defense-spending cuts and sequestration, current plans call
for keeping the active duty B-52s in service for at least another 20
years.
But there are more than a dozen
of the relatively "newest" B-52H bombers—built in the early 1960s—in
storage. Some of these should be delivered to Israel. There's no legal
or policy impediments to their transfer; they would just have to be
refurbished and retrofitted to carry the MOP.
By
transferring to Israel MOPs and B-52Hs the administration would send a
signal that its ally, which already has the will, now has the ability to
prevent a nuclear Iran.
Do any of you see Obama doing this? There's only a slight chance if he decides he wants to influence the outcome of the midterm elections.
The Pentagon has recently completed a series of field exercises on US soil as part of which a replica of an underground nuclear facility
was destroyed, Yedioth Ahronoth reported Friday.
The tests were declared a resounding success having exceeded all expectations.
The results of the
experiment were relayed to friendly nations with the aim of reassuring
them as to the US's ability to destroy Iranian nuclear facilities in a
single strike.
It was also meant to convey that the US is serious in its intentions to attack Iran
should circumstances allow it.
The experiment
included the firing of several bunker buster bombs
first introduced by the US Defense Department in July 2012. The GBU-57
B bomb is mounted on a B-2 bomber and as part of the experiment
penetrated the underground facility's concrete ceilings.
The US has suggested it will manufacture only a limited amount of such bunker busters. Each bomb
is estimated at $ 3.5 million and the overall cost of developing the new weapon was $500 million.
The size of the munition is six times greater than any other known
bunker buster. It weighs 13 tons and its speed of penetration two times
faster than the speed of sound at a rate of accuracy of five meters.
The real question appears to be not whether the United States can do it, but whether Obama will have the guts to pull the trigger. Or whether Chuck Hagel will have the guts to do it while Obama is on the golf course.
The US is considering an Israeli request to buy some 6,900 bunker busters, which would be awfully useful in destroying Iran's nuclear capabilities (Hat Tip: MFS - The Other News).
The United States is considering an Israeli request to buy 6,900 GPS
bombs, weighing up to one ton, as Middle East tensions rise, Defense News reported Tuesday.
The Pentagon notified Congress on Monday of the potential $647 million sale of bombs, the smallest of which weighs 250 pounds.
“The United States is committed to the security of Israel, and it is
vital to US national interests to assist Israel to develop and maintain a
strong and ready self-defense capability,” said a statement from the
Pentagon’s Defense Security Cooperation Agency, which oversees foreign
weapon and equipment sales.
“This proposed sale is consistent with those objectives,” it added.
“The proposed sale of munitions will enable Israel to maintain
operational capability of its existing systems.“
Israel has similar munitions and can absorb more of them into its
arsenal. The additional stockpile may help replace bombs used in the
Pillar of Defense counterterrorist operation and also may be linked to
possible overall operations in the future, more specifically in case a
conflict with Iran breaks out.
The bombs and GPS-guided tail kits, called Joint Direct Attack Munitions, or JDAMs, are built by Boeing.
The proposed sale would also include 3,450 Small Diameter Bombs.
We've heard stories like this before. I would not take this as meaning that we are going to attack Iran next month.
Maariv, which is Hebrew-only, reported on Thursday that Israel sought advanced weaponry, including advanced bunker busters and refueling planes with which to attack Iran, in exchange for Israel agreeing not to attack Iran this year (Hat Tip: Memeorandum). A US official substantially confirms the report, but describes as 'unrealistic' the US conditioning the supply on Israel's agreement not to attack Iran this year. This is from the first link.
The US offered to give Israel advanced weaponry -- including bunker-busting bombs and refueling planes -- in exchange for Israel's agreement not to attack Iranian nuclear sites, Israeli newspaper Maariv reported Thursday.
President Obama reportedly made the offer during Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu's visit to Washington this week.
Under the proposed deal, Israel would not attack Iran until 2013, after US elections in November this year. The newspaper cited unnamed Western diplomatic and intelligence sources.
And this is from the second link.
"Such a request was made" around the time of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's visit to Washington this week, the official said, confirming media reports.
But the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity given the sensitivity of the issue, played down as "unrealistic" reports that the United States would condition supplying the hardware on Israel promising not to attack Iran this year.
Israel Radio reports that the White House issued a statement today saying that President Obama and Prime Minister Netanyahu did not discuss bunker busters during their meeting on Monday. (The transcript and video of Thursday's White House press briefing is not up yet at this writing).
Obama doesn't want to give us that massive ordnance penetrator to beat Iran? No problem. We Jews will just develop our own. It's called an MPR-500 guided missile.
Below are some of the highlights of the media coverage, achieved following the Airshow:
"It may look just like the regular Mk-82 500-pounder that is used the world over, but IMI’s MPR 500 is an altogether smarter beast", reports David Donald in AIN Online (15/2/2012). "Although it can be used as an unguided bomb, the MPR 500 is most effective when used with various precision guidance options, such as laser, infrared or GPS/inertial […] the weapon drives a straight path through the obstacles, virtually eliminating “J” effects that cause the warhead to deflect and explode incorrectly." (Read full article).
CNN's Dean Irvine (18/2/2012) reported that: "the selling point for this bomb is its ability to penetrate four layers of reinforced concrete." In Defense Update, Tamir Eshel (12/2/2012) addressed Boeing's approval of the bomb's compatibility with their Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) guidance kit, stating that: "The combination of IMI’s MPR 500 with Boeing’s JDAM guidance kit substantially enhances operational flexibility while reducing total ownership costs [...] making it ideal for [use against] gardened targets in dense urban areas or in close proximity to friendly troops". (Read Full Article).
StrategyPage.com (21/2/2012), stated IMI's "Bunker Buster", has joined the heavier (5000 lb) GBU-28 bombs already in service with the Israeli Air Force (IAF) – enabling more penetrator bombs to be carried per sortie. (Read Full Article).
The Washington Post reports that experts believe that Iran's Fordow nuclear plant outside the 'holy city' of Qom, where Iran is enriching uranium underground, is not immune to bunker buster bombs.
But impregnable it is not, say U.S. military planners, who are increasingly confident about their ability to deliver a serious blow against Fordow should the president ever order an attack.
U.S. officials say they have no imminent plan to bombard the site, and they have cautioned that an American attack — or one by its closest Middle Eastern ally, Israel — risks devastating consequences such as soaring oil prices, Iranian retaliation and dramatically heightened tension in a fragile region.
Yet as a matter of physics, Fordow is far more vulnerable than generally portrayed, said current and former military and intelligence analysts. Massive new “bunker buster” munitions recently added to the U.S. arsenal would not necessarily have to penetrate the deepest bunkers to cause irreparable damage to infrastructure as well as highly sensitive nuclear equipment, probably setting back Iran’s program by years, officials said.
...
In arguing their case, U.S. officials acknowledged some uncertainty over whether even the Pentagon’s newest bunker-buster weapon — called the Massive Ordnance Penetrator — could pierce in a single blow the subterranean chambers where Iran is making enriched uranium. But they said a sustained U.S. attack over multiple days would probably render the plant unusable by collapsing tunnels and irreparably damaging both its highly sensitive centrifuge equipment and the miles of pipes, tubes and wires required to operate it.
“Hardened facilities require multiple sorties,” said a former senior intelligence official who has studied the formerly secret Fordow site and who agreed to discuss sensitive details of U.S. strike capabilities on the condition of anonymity. “The question is, how many turns do you get at the apple?”
U.S. confidence has been reinforced by training exercises in which bombers assaulted similar targets in deeply buried bunkers and mountain tunnels, the officials and experts said.
My problem is that every time I see a report like this, I cannot help but wonder whether it is spin by the Obama administration that's designed to hold off an Israeli attack. What could go wrong?
Key Israeli defense officials believe that the time to strike, if such a decision is made, would have to be by the middle of this year.
Complicating the task is the assessment that Iran is stepping up efforts to move its work on enriching uranium deep underground.
Several officials at the heart of the decision-making structure, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were discussing some of Israel's deepest secrets, said they feel compelled to give the sanctions time.
In this way, somewhat paradoxically, the new economic sanctions the US and Europe are imposing – while meeting a repeated Israeli request – have emerged as an obstacle to military action.
An Israeli strike would risk shattering the US-led diplomatic front that has imposed four additional rounds of sanctions on Iran and jolt the shaky world economy by causing oil prices to spike. Still, the officials said that if Israel feels no alternative but to take military action, it will do so.
The US has sold Israel dozens of 100 GBU-28 laser-guided "bunker-buster" bombs. The 2.5-ton bombs are capable of penetrating more than 20 feet of solid concrete.
It's not clear how much damage the bunker-busters could actually do. Iran's main enrichment site at Natanz is believed to be about 25 feet (6 meters) underground and protected by two concrete walls.
US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta told The Wall Street Journal last week that even more sophisticated US bunker-busters aren't powerful enough to penetrate all of Iran's defenses.
...
A one-time surgical strike, the most likely attack by Israel, "can't do more than politically declare that we aren't willing to tolerate" a nuclear Iran, Shapir said.
That has raised speculation that Israel's veiled threats are no more than attempts to get Iran to back down.
I don't expect Iran to stop unless they are forced to stop, and it seems that Israel can delay them at best. But if no one else does anything, we may have no choice but to try.
But initial tests indicated that the bomb, as currently configured, wouldn't be capable of destroying some of Iran's facilities, either because of their depth or because Tehran has added new fortifications to protect them.
Doubts about the MOP's effectiveness prompted the Pentagon this month to secretly submit a request to Congress for funding to enhance the bomb's ability to penetrate deeper into rock, concrete and steel before exploding, the officials said.
The push to boost the power of the MOP is part of stepped-up contingency planning for a possible strike against Iran's nuclear program, say U.S. officials.
...
Officials said the planned improvements to the MOP were meant to overcome shortcomings that emerged in initial testing. They said the new money was meant to ensure the weapon would be more effective against the deepest bunkers, including Iran's Fordow enrichment plant facility, which is buried in a mountain complex surrounded by antiaircraft batteries, making it a particularly difficult target even for the most powerful weapons available to the U.S.
Developing an effective bunker-buster is complicated in part because of the variables, experts say. Penetration varies depending on factors such as soil density and the types of stone and rock shielding the target.
Boeing received a contract in 2009 to fit the weapon on the U.S.'s B-2 Stealth Bomber. The Air Force began receiving the first of the bombs in September, a time of growing tensions with Iran. The Air Force has so far contracted to buy 20 of the bombs, and more deliveries are expected in 2013, after additional tests are made.
Should a decision be made to use the MOP as currently configured, it could cause "a lot of damage" to Iran's underground nuclear facilities but wouldn't necessarily destroy them outright, Mr. Panetta said.
"We're developing it. I think we're pretty close, let's put it that way. But we're still working at it because these things are not easy to be able to make sure that they will do what we want them to."
Mr. Panetta added: "But I'm confident, frankly, that we're going to have that capability and have it soon,"
...
According to Air Force officials, the 20.5 foot-long MOP carries over 5,300 pounds of explosive material. It is designed to penetrate up to 200 feet underground before exploding. The mountain above the Iranian enrichment site at Fordow is estimated to be at least 200 feet tall.
Israel has large bunker-buster bombs but the U.S. hasn't provided the MOP to any other country.
Hmmm. It seems to me that what you ought to do is to hit Iran now with what you have to delay them and then develop the MOP further to stop them completely.
But Obama won't do that. He'll wait for Iran to attack Israel first (God forbid).
Time Magazine: Israeli military expert told cabinet Israel can't delay Iran for more than a year
Time Magazine is claiming that a senior IDF officer told the cabinet last year that an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear installations will not set Iran back more than a year.
But could Israel go it alone?
...
But as quoted by a senior security official, the assessment offered to the cabinet of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last autumn was not altogether encouraging:
“I informed the cabinet we have no ability to hit the Iranian nuclear program in a meaningful way,” the official quoted a senior commander as saying. “If I get the order I will do it, but we don’t have the ability to hit in a meaningful way.”
The key word is”meaningful.” The working assumption behind Israel’s military preparations has been that, to be worth mounting, a strike must be likely to delay Tehran’s nuclear capabilities by at least two years. But given the wide geographic dispersion of Iran’s atomic facilities–combined with the limits of Israel’s air armada–the Jewish State can expect to push back the Iranian program only by a matter of months — a year at most, according to the official, who attributed the estimate to the Atomic Energy Commission that Israel has charged with assessing the likely effect of a strike.
That assessment comes as no surprise to military experts both inside and outside Israel. ”That’s a perfectly logical calculation, for somebody who actually knows how Israel assesses this,” says Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Perhaps the most respected military analyst working stateside, Cordesman went on for a while in our telephone interview about how weary he’d grown of reading back-of-the-envelope estimates of “former Israeli officials.” The reality, he says, is that the decisive, actual capabilities are known only to the military professionals who have the details in front of them. Even then, the course of action – in this case, whether Israel will launch the attack it has spent more than a decade equipping and training its military for — will be determined by more than strictly military matters:
Israel is going to act strategically. It’s going to look at the political outcome of what it says and does, not simply measure this in terms of some computer game and what the immediate tactical impact is.
What everyone agrees, however, is that as formidable as the Israeli Air Force is, it simply lacks the capacity to mount the kind of sustained, weeks-long aerial bombardment required to knock down Iran’s nuclear program, with the requisite pauses for damage assessments followed by fresh waves of bombing. Without forward platforms like air craft carriers, Israel’s air armada must rely on mid-air refueling to reach targets more than 1,000 miles away, and anyone who reads Israel’s order of battle sees it simply doesn’t have but a half dozen or so. Another drawback noted by analysts is Israel’s inventory of bunker-busting bombs, the sort that penetrate deep into concrete or rock that shield the centrifuge arrays at Natanz and now Fordow, near Qum. Israel has loads of GBU-28s, which might penetrate Natanz. But only the U.S. Air Force has the 30,000-pound Massive Ordnance Penetrator that could take on Fordow, the mountainside redoubt where critics suspect Iran would enrich uranium to military levels.
Would Obama help Israel out in a bid to win reelection? Don't count on it.
The next time President Obama brags about what great support he has given Israel, you can ask him about this story. There is a fear in Israel that the GBU-28 bunker busters that we purchased from the United States have defective fuses.
Israel ordered its first batch of the GBU-28 in 2005 and reportedly received them a year later. In 2007 it asked the Pentagon for another batch of bombs but the delivery was delayed due to concern in Washington that Israel planned to use the bunker buster bomb to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, some of which are located in fortified bunkers.
In September, Newsweek reported that the Obama administration had recently decided to authorize the delivery of 55 GBU-28 bombs as part of an aid package aimed at improving ties with Jerusalem.
Concerns in Israel now are that some of the bombs supplied to Israel over the years could have been installed with defective fuses.
On Friday, the US Justice Department announced that it had reached a settlement with Kaman Corp. which allegedly substituted a fuse in four lots of fuses made for the bombs. Under the settlement, Kaman Corp. will pay the government $4.75 million.
The US government alleged in its lawsuit against the company that the installation of defective fuses could lead to the premature detonation of the bomb and cause accidental misfires.
In September 2010, the Defense Department announced that it had awarded Kaman Precision Products, a subsidiary of Kaman Corp, a $35 million contract to manufacture fuses for four foreign countries. One of those countries was likely Israel. South Korea is also in possession of the GBU-28.
Read that closely. Although Israel has been buying bunker busters since 2006, the contractor who apparently installed defective fuses started working for the US government in September 2010. Hmmm.
Massive Ordnance Penetrator delivered to US Air Force
Bloomberg is reporting that the United States has finally deployed the oft-delayed 30,000 ton Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP). The MOP is a massive bunker buster which is deployed on a B-2 bomber. It is thought to be especially useful for reaching underground installations in Iran.
The Air Force Global Strike Command started receiving the bombs in September, Air Force spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Jack Miller said in a short statement to Bloomberg News.
The deliveries “will meet requirements for the current operational need,” he said.
The Air Force in 2009 said Boeing might build as many as 16 of the munitions. Miller yesterday had no details on how many the Air Force plans to buy. Boeing in August received a $32 million contract that included eight of the munitions.
Command head Lieutenant General James Kowalski told the annual Air Force Association conference in September the command “completed integration” of the bunker-buster bomb with the B- 2, “giving the war-fighter increased capability against hardened and deeply buried targets.”
The bomb is the U.S. military’s largest conventional penetrator. It’s six times bigger than the 5,000-pound bunker buster that the Air Force now uses to attack deeply buried nuclear, biological or chemical sites.
The B-2, developed by Falls Church, Virginia-based Northrop Grumman Corp. (NOC), has a shape and skin capable of evading radar. It’s the only U.S. bomber designed to penetrate air defenses such as those believed in use by North Korea and Iran. It’s also the only aircraft currently capable of carrying the new bomb.
The B-2 has bombed targets in the Afghanistan and Iraq wars. Three in March flew round-trip, non-stop missions from Missouri to Libya in the opening hours of U.S. air strikes, dropping 45 bombs.
Little authoritative information has been published about the capability of the Massive Ordnance Penetrator. A December 2007 story by the Air Force News Service said it has a hardened- steel casing and can reach targets as far down as 200 feet underground before exploding.
The new, 20.5-foot-long bomb carries more than 5,300 pounds of explosives and is guided by Global Positioning System satellites, according to a description on the Web site of the Pentagon’s Defense Threat Reduction Agency.
The Pentagon in July 2009 formally asked Congress to shift funds in order to accelerate by three years fielding the weapon.
Read the whole thing. I've discussed the MOP many times, albeit not recently. You can find a list of those links here.
Report: US supplied Israel with 55 bunker busters this month
Israel Radio reports (7:00 pm) based that the French website Le Canarad Enchaine reports that according to the French intelligence agency, the United States has provided Israel with an additional 55 bunker busters for use against Iran this month.
Each bunker buster carries one ton of explosives. They were given to Israel to use against Iran without giving a green light for such an attack.
London's Daily Telegraph has gotten a pretty good idea of what's in that IAEA report to be released later this month. If they have the report, they're not saying, but they cite 'western diplomats' who have apparently seen it. And it doesn't really allow for any conclusion other than the fact that Iran is developing nuclear weapons.
Yukiya Amano, the organisation’s director-general, is unlikely to draw a definitive conclusion that Iran is making nuclear weapons, but according to Western diplomats the facts will make any other conclusion implausible.
They believe the IAEA has substantiated evidence from intelligence reports, interviews with Iranian scientists and on-the-ground inspections that Iran is carrying out a nuclear weapons programme in parallel to its civilian energy goals.
The agency will sound the alarm over Iranian scientists’ work to develop a ballistic missile warhead capable of carrying a nuclear device. It has already uncovered evidence that Iran has been carrying out research into triggers for nuclear weapons.
Inspectors have also questioned Iranian scientists on simulation programmes that they believe are designed to design and test a potential weapon.
“This is the product of a vast amount of work by the IAEA which will show the level of evidence they’ve accumulated and make clear a number of supplementary indications they have uncovered,” said a Western diplomat. “It makes an inescapable case that Iran has ambitions to militarise the uranium it has been enriching at its production facilities.”
Another official said: “The Iranians have been very evasive, and quite clever about it at times. It’s been difficult to discover the smoking gun. But this will be more detailed than before. The director-general will point to black holes in the Iranians’ explanations. It will undoubtedly increase the pressure.”
...
The IAEA will provide indications that enriched uranium production is moving from the long-established Natanz facility to Fordow, an underground plant that is regarded by Iran as bomb-proof near the holy city of Qom. Iran has produced more than 70kg of 20 per cent enriched uranium and would easily increase its output if production shifts to the mountain plant. Scientists say that 20 per cent enriched uranium can be refined to the 90 per cent weapons grade level without design changes in the production lines.
The report is likely to provide further ammunition to the case of Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, for pre-emptive military action.
I just want to point out that when Obama took office, Iran had 1,000 kilos of low enriched uranium - they now have four times that. And as recently as June, I reported that they had 38.3 kilo of medium enriched (20%) uranium. The number cited above is nearly double what I reported in June.
The Telegraph also adds a couple of things that were only hinted at in the Israeli media yesterday (until last night) and that were couched in terms of being 'scheduled long in advance.' The Telegraph says otherwise.
The dramatic disclosures came as the Israeli defence ministry confirmed that it had fired “a rocket propulsion system” from its Palmach airbase after a white streak was spotted in the skies above the centre of the country early yesterday.
The ministry, which insisted that the launch had been long planned, censored further details. But Western experts concluded that Israel had fired a Jericho-3 ballistic missile, which is capable of carrying a nuclear warhead and could form a component of any attack on Iran.
It also emerged that Israel’s air force simulated a long-range attack at a Nato base in Sardinia last week.
The exercise, which was not initially disclosed in Israel, included an air-to-air refuelling component. Potential targets in Iran lie between 950 and 1,400 miles from Israel’s borders. Any mission to destroy them would would require aerial refuelling.
I think Israel is telling Obama that if he doesn't take action, Israel will. Obama isn't as big a fool as we sometimes think he is, and he knows that Israel attacks Iran, US interests will not be spared by Iran's response.
In an exclusive story to be published in Newsweek on Monday, Eli Lake reports that the Obama administration sold bunker buster bombs to Israel in 2009 (Hat Tip: Memeorandum).
While publicly pressuring Israel to make deeper concessions to the Palestinians, President Obama has secretly authorized significant new aid to the Israeli military that includes the sale of 55 deep-penetrating bombs known as bunker busters, Newsweek has learned.
In an exclusive story to be published Monday on growing military cooperation between the two allies, U.S. and Israeli officials tell Newsweek that the GBU-28 Hard Target Penetrators—potentially useful in any future military strike against Iranian nuclear sites—were delivered to Israel in 2009, just several months after Obama took office.
The military sale was arranged behind the scenes as Obama’s demands for Israel to stop building settlements in disputed territories were fraying political relations between the two countries in public.
But Lake himself admits that the bombs were actually promised to Israel by the Bush administration.
The Israelis first requested the bunker busters in 2005, only to be rebuffed by the Bush administration. At the time, the Pentagon had frozen almost all U.S.-Israeli joint defense projects out of concern that Israel was transferring advanced military technology to China.
In 2007, Bush informed Ehud Olmert, then prime minister, that he would order the bunker busters for delivery in 2009 or 2010. The Israelis wanted them in 2007. Obama finally released the weapons in 2009, according to officials familiar with the still-secret decision.
James Cartwright, the Marine Corps general who served until August as the vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told Newsweek the military chiefs had no objections to the sale. Rather, Cartwright said, there was a concern about “how the Iranians would perceive it,” and “how the Israelis might perceive it.” In other words, would the sale be seen as a green light for Israel to attack Iran’s secret nuclear sites one day?
So it sounds like the Bush administration actually ordered that the bombs be supplied and what Obama did was not to stop that supply. And that is exactly what I reported in May 2010 based on reports in Globes (Israel's business daily) and DEBKA.
The Pentagon approved the delivery of 100 GBU-28s in 2005, after years of hesitation. It notified Congress of the delivery of 50 more bombs in 2007. US and Israeli sources told "Defense News" that the IAF has not yet procured all the bombs approved of both types, nor has it used them in reprisal air strikes, in order to keep them ready for possible use against Iranian nuclear sites.
Moreover, in November 2010, I reported that the IAF had taken delivery of GBU-39's, a lighter version of the bunker busters to be used with Israel's F-15I jets. They're also discussed at the previous link.
So is this a big deal? My guess is that the Obama administration wanted this report released now to help in its efforts to mend ties with the Jewish community. But the truth is that it's not a big deal.
Selling these weapons to Israel doesn't do much good if Israel can't use them because of diplomatic constraints, which is why the diplomatic pressure that the Obama administration has put on Israel (which it chooses to ignore every time it talks about American military cooperation with Israel) does much more damage than military assistance helps. These arms are meant to keep the Israelis from getting nervous about Iran, but, ironically, the only way Israel can restore its deterrence against Iran is to use them.
So no, this is not a big deal. But Eli Lake is a nice guy and I hope he gets a lot of hits for this story.
I am an Orthodox Jew - some would even call me 'ultra-Orthodox.' Born in Boston, I was a corporate and securities attorney in New York City for seven years before making aliya to Israel in 1991 (I don't look it but I really am that old :-). I have been happily married to the same woman for thirty-five years, and we have eight children (bli ayin hara) ranging in age from 13 to 33 years and nine grandchildren. Four of our children are married! Before I started blogging I was a heavy contributor on a number of email lists and ran an email list called the Matzav from 2000-2004. You can contact me at: IsraelMatzav at gmail dot com
