Soccer Dad's Middle East Media Sampler
Here's Soccer Dad's Middle East Media Sampler for Wednesday, July 18.
1) Coalition ends
Given the disbanding of the Plesner Committee, tasked with coming up with a plan for drafting Chareidi men two weeks ago, the dissolution of Israel's unity government is less of a surprise than its formation. Whatever else is true about Israeli politics, Binyamin Netanyahu and Likud do not appear to have been hurt much by the failure to arrives at workable solution.
In Unity Government in Israel Disbanding Over Dispute on Draft the New York Times reports:
With the economy strong and domestic terrorism all but disappeared, few doubt Mr. Netanyahu’s re-election, even if the draft failure has hurt him; now, it seems clear he will run from the right, and less likely that he would take steps on settlements or the broader Palestinian conflict that might alienate conservative and religious voters.
Far less clear is what will become of Kadima, a center-left party that broke away from the Likud in 2005 and has lost traction in recent months.
Similarly in Israeli coalition unravels as centrist Kadima party quits over draft dispute the Washington Post reports:
Kadima now returns to being the largest opposition party, one that had plummeting popularity before it joined the alliance.
Netanyahu, on the other hand, enjoys strong approval ratings, and his Likud party is expected to easily win the next elections, scheduled for late 2013. Avraham Diskin, a political scientist at Hebrew University in Jerusalem, said the coalition’s fate until then is likely to depend on the ultra-nationalist party of Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, who backs an aggressive conscription law that would also draft Israeli Arabs.
Neither article was terrible, but both suffered from one of the shortcomings Barry Rubin identified in the mainstream media's coverage of the Middle East. Both mentioned what Israel could do or attempt to do to help the peace process along. A week after President Abbas refused to negotiate because Netanyahu wouldn't release a sufficient number of terrorists, it's odd that anyone would still be suggesting that it is solely or mostly up to Israel to make peace.
2) Syria links
Barry Rubin notes some factors suggesting that Assad is running out of time:
There are three main factors that are making a rebel victory seem more likely.
First, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, with Turkey’s facilitation and U.S. coordination, are sending arms to the opposition.
Second, the regime has been rushing the same trusted units around the country to put down upsurges. After many months of battle, these forces are getting tired and stretched thin.
Third, President Bashar al-Assad really has nothing to offer the opposition. He won’t leave and he can’t share power. His strategy of brutal suppression and large-scale killing can neither make the opposition surrender nor wipe it out. Even if he kills civilians and demonstrators, the rebel military forces can pull back to attack another day.
Jonathan D. Halevi writes in Moment of Truth approaching in Damascus (via Daily Alert):
In a video uploaded to YouTube on Monday, Free Syrian Army commander Riad al-Asaad ordered rebel forces in southern Syria and the rural part of Damascus to wage the final battle against Assad’s forces in the capital. Rebel forces in the northern and eastern parts of the country were told to go to Aleppo, the economic capital of Syria.
Asaad’s statements reflect growing confidence among the rebels, who have destroyed a large number of armored vehicles and helicopters, killed thousands of soldiers while taking many others prisoner, striking a lethal blow to the Syrian army’s morale. Many Syrian army troops now appear to be exhausted, lacking resolve or belief in the justice of their cause. Desertions keep mounting and now include senior officers and circles close to the regime.
Khaled Abu Toameh reports Now the are slaughtering Palestinians:
According to Palestinian sources, unidentified militiamen stopped the bus, kidnapped the Palestinian men and took them to an unknown destination. A few days later the Syrian authorities announced that they had discovered the bodies of the victims in a field.
The men had been shot in the legs and chest before they were slaughtered like cattle, the Palestinian sources said.
...
Some Palestinians blamed radical Islamic gangs operating in Syria, while others did not rule out the possibility that the murderers belonged to President Bashar Assad's security establishment.
Benny Avni wonders if Assad or someone else will use his chemical weapons:
Whether or not Assad survives the deadly 16-month rebellion against him, his long-ignored weapons of mass destruction may soon be in play.
Whoever gets these terror weapons, and what they do with them, is a question to be handled by real world powers. It’s far beyond the capacity of the United Nations and Kofi Annan, to which America has so far subcontracted our Syria policy.
Washington has reportedly detected trucks moving chemical munitions out of storage facilities in the area of Homs — a hotspot of the rebellion against Assad’s rule.
Jonathan Spyer writes about a report showing the cynicism of the Assad regime:
In an interview with The Sunday Telegraph, Nawaf Fares, a senior Syrian diplomat who defected to the rebel side asserted that the Assad regime was responsible for a major act of terror in Damascus, which was blamed at the time on al-Qaida.
The former Syrian ambassador to Iraq left Syria last week.
In the interview with Telegraph correspondent Ruth Sherlock, Fares claimed that the regime set up the bombing of a military intelligence headquarters in al-Qazzaz, ensuring that personnel at the base absented themselves minutes before the explosion, and that the only casualties were civilians.
There more from Fares at MEMRI.
"I would like to remind Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki: You know full well what Bashar Al-Assad did to Iraq and to the Iraqi people. Your security agencies know full well the extent of the damage and the killings – thousands of Iraqis were killed – at the hand of Bashar Al-Assad.
"The Iraqi PM, the security agencies, and most of the Iraqi politicians are fully aware of this and have documentation of it. Personally, I have a lot of criticism toward the [Iraqi] prime minister for taking a stand that runs counter to the way things really are.
[...]
"He knows full well what Bashar Al-Assad did against him personally, against the Iraqi people in its entirety, and against the Shi'ites in particular."
While Ambassador Fares's charge in the Telegraph seems consistent with other actions taken by the regime, the interview transcribed by MEMRI he seems to be trying to distance himself from the regime.
The latest news from Syria seems to be a significant blow to Assad.
The bomber, said by a security source to be a bodyguard assigned to Assad's inner circle, struck a meeting attended by ministers and senior security officials in the Syrian capital as battles raged within sight of the presidential palace.
State television said Defence Minister Daoud Rajha and Assad's brother-in-law Assef Shawkat, the deputy defence minister, had been killed in a "terrorist bombing" and pledged to wipe out "criminal gangs".
A Syrian security source confirmed Shawkat, 62, was killed and said intelligence chief Hisham Bekhtyar was wounded. State television said Interior Minister Mohammad Ibrahim al-Shaar had also been wounded in the blast.
Labels: Bashar al-Assad, Haredim, IDF, Iraq, Kadima, Middle East Media Sampler, Nouri al-Maliki, Plesner Committee, Soccer Dad, Syrian uprising
And they're out! Kadima leaves government
That was quick.
Kadima has decided to leave the government over their inability to get the Likud to commit to a law that would throw all the Haredim in jail for draft evasion.
Kadima was left with no choice but to leave the coalition after a failure to bridge the gaps between party its position and that of the Likud, Kadima leader Shaul Mofaz told faction members in a closed-door meeting Tuesday, party sources said.
Mofaz was unwilling to compromise on the issue, and therefore was left with no choice but to pull his party from the coalition, according to the source.
All but three Kadima MKs voted to leave the government. The three MKs were Avi Dichter, Otniel Schneller and Yulia Shamalov Berkovich.
Netanyahu held meetings with Kadima MKs on Tuesday in hopes of convincing them to remain in the coalition. Mofaz called a meeting of the faction at its Petah Tikva headquarters for 5 p.m. on Tuesday to discuss whether the party should leave the government.
Leading into the meeting, Mofaz on Tuesday afternoon rejected, what Netanyahu had characterized as a compromise offer, to resolve the Tal Law crisis.
According to Mofaz, the offer was that fifty percent of haredim between the ages of 18-23 would be drafted by the IDF and another 50% would be drafted into national service between the ages of 23-26.
Mofaz said that the proposal violates the ruling of the High Court on the issue, the principle of equal sharing of the burden of military service, is not proportional and does not meet the ultimate test of effectively resolving the issue.
Mofaz also noted that the proposal also did not include all draftable persons, and therefore, in reality, would merely maintain the unmanageable status quo.
I'm trying to keep a straight face.... Really....
Labels: Haredim, IDF, Kadima, Knesset elections 2012, Likud party, Plesner Committee
Heh: Plesner himself proposed deferring Haredi army service to age 26
In what is perhaps the best indication yet of the extent to which the battle over 'sharing the burden' is a populist gimmick, Channel 10 revealed over the weekend that MK Yochanan Plesner (Kadima), who is now leading the charge to draft all Haredim at age 18,
proposed in May that Haredim be able to defer army service until age 26.
Likud officials said yesterday they believed that they could get Kadima to back down from its position on the bill. That is because it emerged over the weekend that Plesner had worded a bill on army service for Haredim, a week after his Kadima party joined the coalition in May, which was similar to the formula Ya’alon is now proposing. Plesner says he vehemently opposes Ya’alon’s plan.
The existence of Plesner’s May proposal was revealed by the news website Nana 10.
According to Ya’alon’s bill, the ultra-Orthodox could defer service until age 26. However, Plesner’s wording from his May bill says the same thing: “The defense minister may postpone for one year the drafting of a candidate for military service for purposes of study of the Jewish religion. He may postpone the candidate’s service for additional periods of one year each, as long as the sum total of the periods does not exceed eight years − in other words, from ages 18 to 26.
But the bill produced by the committee Plesner headed allowed for deferment of service only until age 22. After that, a yeshiva student would have to choose between national civilian service and military service. According to the Plesner committee’s bill, the defense minister could exempt from Israel Defense Forces service exceptionally bright students − known in Jewish tradition as iluim.
Plesner’s proposal from two months ago also sets milestones for the drafting of the ultra-Orthodox. “The defense minister will formulate regulations within three months of the drafting of this law, quantitative goals for the draft and for national civilian service, so that within five years from the passing of the law, it will be applied in full.”
Ya’alon’s proposal states that the full draft of the ultra-Orthodox will be completed by 2016.
Heh.
Labels: Binyamin Netanyahu, IDF, Moshe Yaalon, Plesner Committee, Shaul Mofaz
Committee member rips Plesner for adding recommendations to report after committee disbanded
Israel Radio reports that committee member Professor Yedidia Stern is accusing Chairman Yohanan Plesner (pictured) of adding divisive recommendations to the Plesner Committee report on changing Israel's military draft after the committee disbanded. The recommendations include some of the most divisive issues, including the insistence on drafting Haredim at age 18, and the demand for personal sanctions against those who do not serve.
On Thursday morning, Haaretz published an interview done by Ari Shavit with Professor Stern behind its paywall. Fortunately,
the print version has made it online. Here's some of what was said:
"Plesner is intelligent, serious, hard-working and persistent," says Stern. "But the report he composed after the committee was disbanded goes too far, too forcefully. Its current version could aggravate the problem it is intended to solve."
Stern is afraid the Plesner report could bring us to a harsh internal confrontation.
"As Israelis, we must define our goals clearly," says Stern, in his small room at the institute, located in Jerusalem's Talbiya neighborhood. "One important goal is equality in distributing the burden. Another is integrating ultra-Orthodox people into Israel's economy. But the most important goal is integrating them into society. We must enable the development of an ultra-Orthodox Israeli who is not necessarily Zionist by ideology, but is part of Israeli society."
"The new Haredi-Israeli can feel solidarity with Israeli society without losing his separate identity. He will be part of the national sovereign experience without losing his faith and endangering his community. The main path to reaching this goal is through military service. If the Haredim treat the IDF as they do Zaka [a largely Haredi organization that gathers remains of the dead for burial] and Yad Sarah [an Orthodox-run charity] - we will have made a difference. If IDF uniforms hang on clothes lines in Bnei Brak and Beitar Illit and Ramat Beit Shemesh - Israel will be a different place," he says.
"The ultra-Orthodox are brothers in an important counter-culture. They need and are entitled to recognition, protection and the ability to thrive," says Stern. "On the other hand, we can't let them take over the public space, public money and the Israeli narrative. To achieve the right balance between these goals we must integrate them into the social fabric while creating solidarity based on mutual respect. We must not hate them, degrade them or belittle ourselves before them. ... We must make them part of the military service experience in a measured way that doesn't undermine the foundations of their existence."
Once the High Court of Justice has had its say (striking down the Tal Law ) we must accept its ruling. The Plesner committee had to draft the plan for the ultra-Orthodox community's integration into Israeli society, he says.
Enlisting Haredi men at age 18 could endanger their identity, evoke sweeping resistance and ignite a culture war, says Stern. By contrast, at age 22 they are married yeshiva graduates, deeply anchored in their way of life. Their recruitment will not cause the major yeshivas' collapse nor undermine the Haredi world. This was a balanced, far-seeing decision. True, it will cost more, but the social proceeds are much higher, he adds.
"The report's decisions reflected a resolve to recruit them with respect, and treated Torah study as one of the elements shaping Israel's identity as a Jewish state," said Stern. "They also reflected Israel's values as a liberal state that does not use force to change its citizens' identity."
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu received bad advice from someone and disbanded the committee, he continues. This was an error that harmed Netanyahu's chances of reaching an agreed solution. It created a crisis in which Plesner had no choice but to complete the report himself. But when he did so - in two days - he went too far, setting an 80 percent draft goal and a quota of 1,500 draft-exempt yeshiva prodigies, he says. Stern believes 80 percent is too ambitious and the 1,500 quota is problematic.
Read the whole thing.
Stern is right that there would be much less resistance to sending Haredim to the army at age 22 than at age 18. But of course, to have the courage to admit that, one must also accept (as Stern does but others do not) that the army cannot serve as a melting pot that will produce identical Israelis. The mistaken goal of looking to create identical Israelis is what has made this society discard the possibility of having a professional,
volunteer army, which would cost us less and be more efficient.
What's most important is not making Haredim 'part of
Israeli society.' Those who want to be will be if they are integrated into the workforce, and those who want to be insular (which will likely be most Haredim) will remain among their own. But what's more important is to integrate Haredim into the Israeli economy and enable them to earn a living without suffering discrimination and (wherever possible) without the need to form their own business ventures serving only the Haredi community. Unfortunately, I don't see that happening. In the long run, in a welfare state like ours, the failure to integrate Haredim into the economy will be far more costly than any (lack of) military service or 'failure' to make them '
Israelis.'
Labels: Haredim, IDF, Israeli economy, Plesner Committee
