Iran deal confirms need for regime change - but where?
In testimony to the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on the Middle East and North Africa, Matt Levitt reports that the main beneficiaries of the sellout to a nuclear-armed Iran are the
Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and Hezbullah.
While the Iran deal leaves much open to interpretation, one thing is
certain: for Iran this deal is strictly transactional, not
transformational. To the contrary, Iran is almost certain to increase
its clandestine activities and support for proxies engaged in asymmetric
warfare and reasonably deniable intelligence and terrorist operations.
In other words, Hezbollah is about to take a place of even greater
prominence within the planning of Iran's revolutionary elite. Hezbollah
heeded Tehran's call to step into the breach of the Syrian war, and as a
result has drifted even further into the Iranian orbit as a result of
its intimate operations with the IRGC there.
But designating only Hezbollah entities -- or those connected to other
Shiite militia or terrorist groups answering to Iran -- is not enough.
Whether through Treasury designations or other tools, IRGC and Qods
Force officers and entities engaged in Iran's ongoing illicit conduct
must also be taken to task.
There are many areas of the Iran deal that warrant close attention as
the agreement moves toward implementation. Contending with what
Secretary Lew referred to as "Iran's menacing behavior" -- in particular
through its own IRGC Qods Force and Lebanese Hezbollah -- must be at
the top of the list. Failure to do so would not only undermine the logic
of the Iran deal as articulated by the administration, it would also
add to the very real trust deficit currently affecting our relationships
with allies both in the region and around the globe...
Michael Rubin argues that the 'deal' is done, and the only answer now is for the West to push
regime change in Iran.
With a deeply flawed JCPOA now a fact-of-life, with Iran empowered
and able to walk away with an industrial-scale, advanced nuclear weapons
program in 15 years, perhaps the best Plan B for the next
administration to consider is an all-out effort for regime change. After
all, the problem isn’t the Iranian people but rather the
unrepresentative theocracy which rules over them, nor is the problem
really the potential nuclear weapons; rather, it is those that would
wield them.
Regime change does not mean direct involvement, let alone military
involvement. Instead, it requires broadcasting geared to undermine the
regime and its legitimacy on bands to which the Iranian public actually
listens. It requires real and consistent support for Iranian trade
unions. With the IRGC or revolutionary foundations controlling most
Iranian industry and often failing to pay workers on time or failing to
provide them safe working conditions, there is ample room to organize.
If the Iranian government is forced to pump its windfall into back wages
rather than missiles, even Obama, and Senator Bernie Sanders cannot
object. And if those workers then organize and disrupt Iran’s oil
fields, for example, no one in Washington should shed any tears. There
are other economic tools in the U.S. arsenal as well which might exploit
the inflation that Iran will face as its economy absorbs its windfall
of cash.
There is no magic formula for regime change, but Obama and the
Democrats in Congress have effectively initiated a 15-year countdown.
Obama has cast America’s lot with Iran, and there is some wisdom to an
“Iranian strategy” so long as Iran is not led by the Islamic Republic.
Let the conversation begin, and efforts to undermine Khamenei’s rule to
accelerate exponentially. That would not only be the path to peace, it
would also be realization of a strategy that is decades too late in
coming.
Well, yeah, but who says we have 15 years (that assumes Iran abides by the deal)?
I also doubt that the Obama administration - or any successor Democratic administration - would be willing to do anything that would undermine the Iranian regime. Obama's whole goal in making Iran a nuclear-armed power was to provide a counter-balance to Israel in the Middle East. If Iran does not become a nuclear power, or is not willing to use that power, Israel remains the dominant power in the region, something the obsessively anti-Israel Obama (and the Left-dominated Democratic party) wish to avoid at all costs. This will only change if the Republicans win the next US Presidential election.
What could go wrong?
Labels: Barack Hussein Obama, Iran Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, Iran sanctions regime, Iranian nuclear threat, Iranian regime change, Israeli nuclear capability, National Democratic Party, regime change
Obama tried even harder than you thought to beat Netanyahu: Expedited visas for Israeli Arabs for 'get out the vote' drive
President Hussein
Obama tried even harder than was previously reported (in the US) to defeat Prime Minister Netanyahu (Hat Tip:
Memeorandum).
"What was not well reported in the American media is that President
Obama and his allies were playing in the election to defeat Prime
Minister Netanyahu," John McLaughlin, a Republican strategist, said in
an interview on John Catsimatidis's "The Cats Roundtable" radio show
broadcast Sunday on AM 970 in New York.
"There was money moving
that included taxpayer U.S. dollars, through non-profit organizations.
And there were various liberal groups in the United States that were
raising millions to fund a campaign called V15 against Prime Minister
Netanyahu," McLaughlin said.
He noted an effort to oust Netanyahu
was guided by former Obama political operative Jeremy Bird and that V15,
or Victory 15, ads hurt Netanyahu in the polls. McLaughlin said the
Israeli leader rebounded after delivering a speech to Congress early
this month, prompting more critical ads.
V15 was viewed as part of a broader campaign to oust Netanyahu. The group was linked
to Washington-based nonprofit OneVoice Movement, which reportedly
received $350,000 in State Department grants. Money to OneVoice stopped
flowing in November, officials said, before the Israeli elections.
After
Netanyahu's win, V15 co-founder Nimrod Dweck said in an interview with
Ronan Farrow aired on MSNBC's "Jose Diaz-Balart" that "not a single
cent" of State Department or taxpayer money had gone to their campaign.
"These are false allegations and they have nothing to do with reality," Dweck said.
McLaughlin also cited an effort "to organize the [Israeli] Arabs into one party and teach them about voter turnout."
"The
State Department people in the end of January, early February,
expedited visas for [Israeli] Arab leaders to come to the United States
to learn how to vote," McLaughlin said.
"There were people in the
United States that were organizing them to vote in one party so they
would help the left-of-center candidate, Herzog, that the Obama
administration favored," he added.
All except the expedited visas
have been reported here before. But as usual, the US mainstream media largely ignored it.
When I was in the US the last couple of weeks, I was asked a lot why the Israeli Arabs and the Left were able to unify while the Right was not. Now, we have a clue as to why.
If only Obama expended as much effort on regime change in Iran and Syria as he did in Israel, the world would be a better place.
Labels: Barack Hussein Obama, Binyamin Netanyahu, Iranian regime change, Knesset elections 2015, regime change, Syrian regime change, V-2015
The rewards of reporting crimes in Iran
This is what happens to people who
report crimes in Iran against the government's wishes.
Iran has hanged two men for their role in a robbery and assault that was filmed and posted on YouTube.
The ISNA news agency reported that the two men, both 24, were hanged in
Tehran before a crowd of some 300 people after being convicted of
"moharebe," or waging war against God, a broad charge that is punishable
by death under Iran's interpretation of Islamic law.
The men were sentenced in December after a 37-second video was posted on
YouTube showing four masked men robbing a man and assaulting him with a
long knife or machete.
Two additional men were sentenced as accomplices to 10 years in prison and 74 lashes.
Aren't you proud that the Obama administration decided not to help those who wanted to overthrow the Ayatollahs four years ago?
Labels: Barack Hussein Obama, crime, executions, Iranian regime change
Iranian students claim Israeli strike would strengthen regime
Two Iranian student leaders who are visiting in Israel believe that an Israeli strike on Iran would
strengthen the Islamist regime.
“An attack would be a blessing for the Islamic Republic, a gift from God for them because then they could use this type of attack to play the victim around the world,” said Amir Abbas Fakhravar of the Confederation of Iranian Students (CIS).
Fakhravar added that an Israeli attack would not bring about a regime change in Tehran, and instead would bring Iran new sympathetic allies and would give it legitimacy in the eyes of the public it lost after the contested 2009 presidential elections.
“After 2009 and the [pro-democracy] Green Movement they lost their legitimacy in the country. It’s not hard to regain this legitimacy after an Israeli attack,” Fakhravar said.
He added that for a regime devoted to paranoid conspiracies blaming Israel for all of its peoples’ hardships, an Israeli attack would be all the proof that Tehran needs to focus the eyes of the public on Israel, effectively silencing dissent within Iran.
The students advocate sanctions instead.
Instead of military action, Fakhravar believes that if the international community ensures tougher sanctions against Iran it can stop the drive for a nuclear weapon.
He said the central component in Iran is oil dollars, which give the regime the cash it needs to pay Basij militiamen and Revolutionary Guard soldiers. If the money dries up, according to Fakhravar’s logic, the regime would lack the means to pay its foot soldiers to crack down on unarmed demonstrators.
Fakhravar is in Israel along with CIS spokeswoman Saghar Erica Kasraie.
Sorry, but it's almost not relevant whether the Iranian people back the regime. First, there is no indication that the sanctions are having any effect on stopping Iran. Even if they 'can't pay the foot soldiers,' they will be able to bring in Hezbullah mercenaries from Lebanon as they did in 2009. And the mercenaries - who speak Arabic and not Persian - are likely to be even more ruthless to the local populace.
Second, it's late for sanctions. Strong sanctions might have had an effect if they had been implemented two or three years ago when the Obama administration was wasting time trying to 'engage' with Ahmadinejad. Instead, that time was wasted, and just in the last couple months (and over Obama's objections) we are seeing sanctions against Iranian oil. It may - likely is - too little too late.
Third, if we reach the point where we have to strike Iran or accept a nuclear-armed Iran, what the Iranian people think and whether they will resent Israel is irrelevant. Iran will have to be stopped. And if the US and the rest of the relatively free world won't do it, Israel will have no choice but to try.
Labels: Iranian nuclear threat, Iranian regime change
Confederation of Iranian Students statement on UK embassy attack
I received via email the following statement from the Confederation of Iranian Students and the Iranian Freedom Institute regarding the Basij-led attack (that's what they're calling it - the Iranians are calling the attackers 'students') on the British embassy in Tehran on Tuesday.
As the U.S. and its European allies begin to impose effective sanctions on the Islamic Republic, the western democracies should anticipate that the regime will initiate more of these fully-authorized, staged incidents under the guise of a student movement. The so-called students, of course, are plain-clothed basiji following orders from the regime. Even Moussa Ghornani, a member of the legal committee of the Iranian Parliament, admitted unwittingly in a statement that “the students who entered the British Embassy yesterday were members of one of the official and effective organizations within the regime.” The basiji “students” published an announcement in the Raja News (the official news agency of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad) that railed against the government of Britain because “this evil government had the audacity to sanction our Central Bank.”
The western democracies should take this incident as evidence that the recently imposed sanctions on the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) have infuriated the regime. And for good reason. The CBI sanctions will disrupt the smooth flow of revenue to the regime that is essential to pay its loyalists, the basiji, and the Revolutionary Guard Corps leadership. The Iranian Freedom Institute (IFI) and the Confederation of Iranian Students (CIS) applauded the imposition of CBI sanctions noting that this is a major step in the right direction.
Contrary to the regime’s propaganda, the Iranian freedom student movement believes the regime has lost its legitimacy and has called repeatedly for its removal. The western democracies should not be misled by the regime’s subterfuge. The Iranian freedom student movement seeks a free, democratic and secular Iran. The Confederation of Iranian Students, in particular, has been at the forefront of this fight for basic human rights and freedoms that the Iranian people desperately seek. Be clear on this point. The Iranian regime, not the average Iranian citizen, is affected by the CBI sanctions and only the imposition of oil sanctions would have a decisive impact on the Islamic Republic.
IFI and CIS believe that the imposition of oil sanctions against the Islamic Republic will cut off the life blood of the regime – the revenue essential to meet the payrolls of its domestic security forces, the basiji and the Revolutionary Guard Corps leadership. The oil sanctions report prepared by the CIS presents a detailed analysis showing how a carefully developed and implemented plan, coordinated closely with the Saudi government, would cripple the Iranian regime and avoid shocking the international oil markets during the current period of international financial turmoil. In this regard, IFI and CIS strongly support French President Sarcozy’s call for international sanctions on the Iranian regime’s oil exports, and will continue their efforts to encourage the U.S. Congress to adopt bipartisan legislation toward that end.
Well, I'm glad to see we've finally done something effective. Imagine if we actually had shut down all access for the Central Bank of Iran to the world financial markets. Maybe they'd even think about stopping the nuclear program.
And with that, I'd like to direct a question or two to whomever sent me this email (yes, I got this anonymously - that's how all these things come - but obviously whoever sent it is at least aware that this blog exists and is probably looking out for this post).
If you were to unseat the Mullahs and Ahmadinejad, what would you do with Iran's nuclear program?
If you were to unseat the Mullahs and Ahmadinejad, what kind of relations, if any, would you anticipate having with the State of Israel?
Two and a half years ago, during the Green Revolution, I could not get straight answers to either of those questions. And so, we will try again.
Labels: Basij, British embassy, Iran sanctions regime, Iranian central bank, Iranian nuclear program, Iranian regime change, Tehran
A matter of time?
US Defense Secretary and former CIA director Leon Panetta told television interviewer Charlie Rose on Tuesday that an Iranian revolution is '
a matter of time.'
"I think we saw in evidence of that in the last election in Iran that there was a movement within Iran that raised those very same concerns that we're seeing elsewhere," Panetta said.
"And I think in many ways, it's a matter of time before that kind of change and reform and revolution occurs in Iran as well."
Iranian security forces crushed mass protests in the wake of Iran's disputed June 2009 re-election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Panetta acknowledged the difficulties supporting such protests given the potential for backlash.
"We should try to take every step to try to support their effort but at the same time, we've got to analyze each situation to make sure that we do nothing that creates a backlash or that undermines those efforts," he said.
...
"I think the reform movement in Iran is learning one hell of a lot from what's happened in Tunisia and Egypt and Libya and Syria," Panetta said.
Supporters of Iran's opposition Green movement are watching the Arab uprisings with a mixture of admiration, regret for their own movement's failure and concern about what might replace fallen regimes.
"One of the issues we were looking at when Tunisia and Egypt happened is ... what sparked this? What made this all happen?" Panetta said, listing factors including social media and populations of youth who lacked hope for the future.
"The fact is when people decide that that moment has come, that's a moment when tremendous change is about to happen," Panetta said.
"And I think it's true, not only in the Middle East. It's going to be true in Iran as well."
Iran might have had a revolution already had the Obama administration backed the 'green movement' in 2009 or 2010. But unlike US ally Hosni Mubarak, whom Obama called upon to resign, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been treated with kid gloves by the Obama administration, which has also allowed Iran to continue the development of nuclear weapons.
It's a matter of time until there is regime change in Iran alright. Sometime after there is regime change in the United States. The real question is whether the Iranians will develop nuclear weapons in the interim.
What could go wrong?
Labels: Barack Hussein Obama, Green Movement, Iranian nuclear threat, Iranian regime change
Iranian opposition urges big turnout for funeral
Hoping to use a large turnout for political gain, Iran's opposition has called for opposition members to attend the funeral of
Ezzatollah Sehabi, an 81-year old opponent of the regime who
died of a stroke on Tuesday.
Opposition websites carried statements urging broad participation in Sahabi's funeral, which will be held in Lavasan on Wednesday. They said there was already a heavy security presence in the northeastern city in anticipation of the event.
Sahabi served as budget chief in the administration formed after Iran's 1979 revolution. He was also elected to the first post-revolutionary parliament but was sidelined by the powerful Islamic clergy in the 1980s.
A longtime activist, Sahabi was jailed both before and after the revolution and spent a total of 15 years behind bars on various charges including efforts to overthrow Islamic rule.
His daughter, Haleh Sahabi, is one of many Iranian activists arrested following a spate of protests in Iran in 2009. She is serving her two-year jail sentence.
Hmmm.
Labels: Ezzatollah Sahabi, Green Movement, Iranian regime change
In Iran too, follow the money
Michael Ledeen reports that much of the rift between Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Ayatollah Ali Khameni is all about - surprise! - money. It seems that Jewish and Christian concepts like tithing aren't enough for the Ayatollah:
He wants to have it all - under the table.
So now the Ahmadinejad people and the Khamenei people are fighting it out in the streets of Tehran, as Reza tells us. Those who have followed this blog for some time will recognize it as the latest phase in what I call “The War of the Persian Succession,” a nasty fight over who will be the next Supreme Leader of Iran, after the passing of Khamenei.
Remember, too, that Mousavi — the leader of a Green Movement that is very much a player in this struggle — designed a strategy that would lead to the implosion of the regime, not its overthrow in a dramatic confrontation. He believes that the internal conflicts are so severe, that if only pressure can be maintained, the system will come down. He hoped that pressure would come from the West, but it didn’t (even though the sanctions have made life more difficult). So the process is slower than it might have been, but still moving along the lines he designed.
I think it is unlikely that one “faction” will definitively prevail over the other. The leader and the president are siamese twins, fused at a vital part of their anatomies, and separation might well be fatal to both. Each has weapons aimed at the other’s heart, and the weapons consist of information of massive fraud and theft.
The Greens issued a lengthy report on these practices, and on the skullduggery the contending forces are practicing on each other. It’s quite spectacular (h/t Michael Rubin and Ali Alfoneh):
Read the whole thing. I wonder if there's a way we can make that internal rot grow a little faster.... Maybe a little honey pot....
Labels: Ayatollah Ali Khameni, Iranian regime change, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
