“If we were able to build a regional defense capability
in, say, Jordan, that capability could easily defend Israel, Jordan and
even Egypt, if you so desired, adding one more layer to your
multi-layered defense,” he told Israeli officials and experts gathered
at the INSS think-tank.
Yair Ramati, head of the Israel Missile Defence Organisation,
appeared open to the idea. “The policy of the (Israeli) Defence Ministry
is always to cooperate with the countries of the region, including the
countries cited,” Ramati said at the conference, in reference to Jordan
and Egypt.
Well, yeah. But why in Jordan? Wouldn't the best geographic location for such a missile shield be in southern Israel?
A key protection system will be the much-vaunted, four-tier missile
defense shield known as Homa, The Wall in Hebrew. This includes the
long-range Arrow 3 system, designed to destroy Iranian ballistic
missiles outside Earth's atmosphere, down to the Iron Dome,
which has by official count shot down 84.6 percent of the short-range
Palestinian rockets it has engaged in the last two years.
Even so,
whatever the dimensions and capabilities of the generals' plan, another
report poured cold water on Israeli expectations of survival in the
next war, which will -- for the first time since the state was founded
in 1948, a half dozen wars ago -- target the home front.
Nathan
Faber of the Faculty of Aerospace Engineering at the Technion, Israel's
Institute of Technology, warned in an article on the website of the
Magen Laoref, or Homefront Shield, foundation, that the Homa could
crumble due to technological, operational and financial reasons in a
multifront war with Hezbollah, Iran and others.
Faber, formerly
chief scientist in the military's missile division, said at least
one-third of all missiles fired at Israel will in all probability get
through.
He calculates Israel could be threatened by 800 Iranian
Shehab-3b and more advanced Sejjil-2 ballistic missiles, and 400
Soviet-era Scud ballistic missiles held by Syria, some of which may be
used in its 33-month-old civil war.
There will also be 500-1,000
medium-range tactical missiles -- like Iran's Fajr or Fateh weapons,
which Hezbollah already has -- and more than 100,000 short-range rockets
held by Syria, Hezbollah and the Palestinian Hamas group in Gaza.
Faber
reckons about one-third of the missiles fired at Israel will be
intercepted by the air force, another third will malfunction and one
third will get through defensive screens, including about 400 of the
1,200 ballistic systems.
Regarding tactical missiles, Faber noted
that "since these are very precise missiles the great majority of them
will hit their target" after evading the anti-missile defenses.
He calculates Iron Dome -- which he assesses has a kill rate of only 66 percent -- will have to deal with 30,000 rockets.
The cost will be awesome -- and possibly prohibitive.
By
Faber's tally, Iron Dome operations will cost $6 billion, countering
400 ballistic missiles another $3 billion, while mid-range interceptions
will total as much as $2 billion.
Actually, the cost should be the least of our issues... if only we didn't waste so much money....
Israel confirms joint missile test with US in the Mediterranean
Israel has confirmed a joint missile test with the United States in the Mediterranean on Tuesday morning. Earlier, Israel had claimed it was not aware of such a test.
The Defense Ministry announced Tuesday that Israel and the United States
had successfully conducted a joint missile test in the Mediterranean
Sea, a short time after Russia said it had detected a missile launch in the area.
The
statement by the Defense Ministry said that the test of the Anchor
missile took place at around 9:15 A.M. Israel time, which coincides with
the report by Moscow that it had detected two ballistic missiles
launched from the same region of the sea.
The Russian embassy in Damascus, however, was quick to affirm that there was no evidence of a missile strike on Syria.
And what is an Anchor missile? The Anchor is part of Israel's Arrow missile defense system program.
US publishes details of Arrow 3 missile base Israel wanted kept secret
The headline of this story - as reflected in the graphic above - sounds really awful. But after reading the story, I have to wonder how the IDF expected a competitive bidding process to be carried out without at least some group of people gaining access to these plans.
The Obama administration had promised to build Israel a
state-of-the-art facility to house a new ballistic-missile defense
system, the Arrow 3. As with all Defense Department projects, detailed
specifications were made public so that contractors could bid on the $25
million project. The specifications included more than 1,000 pages of
details on the facility, ranging from the heating and cooling systems to
the thickness of the walls.
"If an enemy of Israel wanted to
launch an attack against a facility, this would give him an easy how-to
guide. This type of information is closely guarded and its release can
jeopardize the entire facility," said an Israeli military official who
commented on the publication of the proposal but declined to be named
because he wasn’t authorized to discuss the facility. He declined to say
whether plans for the facility have been altered as a result of the
disclosure.
"This is more than worrying, it is shocking," he said.
Pentagon
spokesman Lt. Col. Wesley Miller said he couldn’t comment on the
specifics of the Arrow 3 base, but he said the United States routinely
published the details of its construction plans on a federal business
opportunities website so that contractors could estimate the costs of
jobs. He said such postings often might be revised after contracts were
approved.
Israeli officials appear to have been well aware of the
danger of outsourcing building projects to the United States. In an
interview with the Reuters news agency in March, Lt. Col. Peleg Zeevi,
the head of the bidding process at Israel’s Defense Ministry, justified
Israel’s long history of relying on the United States to help build
military installations by saying that Israel needed "a player that has
the knowledge, ability and experience."
"We are aware of the
security issues that arise in deals with foreign firms, but because we
want real competition and expertise, we will create conditions that will
allow and encourage their participation," Zeevi said.
It
appears, however, that Israeli officials were caught by surprise that
details of the facility at Tel Shahar, classified so top secret that
Israel’s military won’t officially confirm its location between
Jerusalem and Ashdod, would be made so public.
If this is the way the US does public tenders, and if Israel understood that and did not want these details disclosed, why didn't it arrange to approach a small number of trusted US defense contractors privately, with US government approval, to solicit bids without putting these kinds of details into the public domain? Or is the story here that Israel thought that's what it was doing or wanted to do and that the Obama administration thwarted those efforts? If that's the case, it's a serious breach, but that's not what the story appears to be saying....
Or since reporter Sheera Frenkel is based in Israel, is there something more here that didn't make it past the IDF censor?
One of my Twitter trolls issued a challenge today, saying that if Assad has the S-300, why isn't Israel hitting him? (Note that I do not respond to Twitter trolls with less than about 1,000 followers on Twitter - it's not worth giving them the exposure). But there are several answers to that question. One is that the fact that Assad says he has the S-300 doesn't mean he has the S-300. In fact, Israel is checking that report now.
And if anyone thinks that Israel does not have the capability of seeing what Assad is doing, maybe this report will change your mind.
Israel tracks
every heavy missile fired in the Syrian civil war, keen to study
Damascus's combat doctrines and deployments and ready to fend off a
feared first attack on its turf, a senior Israeli military officer said
on Thursday.
Colonel Zvika Haimovich of the
air defence corps said southward launches against Syrian insurgents by
President Bashar al-Assad's forces gave Israel mere seconds in which to
determine it was not the true target - a distinction that could prove
crucial for warding off an unprecedented regional conflagration.
"Syria's
batteries are in a high state of operability, ready to fire at short
notice. All it would take is a few degrees' change in the flight path to
endanger us," he told Reuters in an interview at his base in Palmachim,
south of Tel Aviv.
...
Long-range radars feed real-time data on the
barrages to Haimovich's command bunker, where officers brace to activate
Arrow II, a U.S.-backed Israeli missile shield that has yet to be
tested in battle.
The more threatening launches set off sirens across Palmachim, whose warplanes also await orders to scramble.
...
"We are looking at all aspects, from the
performance of the weaponry to the way the Syrians are using it. They
have used everything that I am aware exists in their missile and rocket
arsenal. They are improving all the time, and so are we, but we need to
study this, and to be prepared."
He
would not detail how Israel determines a missile fired in its direction
will not cross the border, saying only that the process took "more than
a few seconds, but not much more".
Another
Israeli expert, speaking on condition of anonymity, said it combined
split-second analysis of the strength of the launch with up-to-date
intelligence on Assad's intentions.
Haimovich also described as 'credible,' a report that Assad has used up about half of his SCUD missiles. Read the whole thing.
Finally, here's former Defense Minister Moshe Arens talking about the delivery of the S-300 to Syria in an interview this morning on Israel Radio.
Let's go to the videotape (Hebrew with English translation).
Let's put it this way: Have the Russians yet confirmed that they delivered the S-300 to Syria? Not that I have heard.
Israel and US successfully test David's sling (with video)
Israel and the United States have successfully tested David's sling, which is designed to shoot down medium range (70-300 km) missiles - what falls between Iron Dome and the Arrow series.
Let's go to the videotape and then I'll have more after the video:
The David’s Sling is a missile defense system currently under
development by Rafael in Israel and Raytheon in the US. The system would
defend against Iranian missiles such as the M600, the Zelzal, Fajr and
Fateh 110 deployed heavily in Hezbollah hands in Lebanon as well as
other missiles with a range between 70 and 300 kilometers. It is slated
to become operational in 2014.
Defense Minister Ehud Barak congratulated those involved in the test,
adding that David's Sling would form a significant layer in Israel's
multi-layered missile defense program.
"The major success of Iron
Dome batteries in Operation Pillar of Defense clarifies beyond all
doubt the huge importance of missile defense programs. The state of
Israel is a world leader in this field, thanks to its Israeli defense
industries and their people," Barak added.
Just as an aside, I want to remind you all that nearly 30 years ago, when Ronald Reagan proposed the Strategic Defense Initiative (Star Wars), Democrats howled that he was crazy. But I digress....
David’s Sling uses the Stunner interceptor, fitted into a launcher
that can hold 16 missiles. It works together with an advanced
phased-array radar made by Israel Aerospace Industries. The system can
also be formatted to defend Israel's skies against enemy aircraft.
David's
Sling will operate within Israel's multi-tiered missile defense system,
protecting the country from medium-range threats. The Iron Dome system
aims to intercept short-range missiles and rockets, while the country's
Arrow and eventually Arrow 3 seek to intercept long-range missiles and
ICBMs.
The anti-missile systems are great but for one small weakness: If you have to worry that you will need to use them, you can't really go about life normally in the first place.
I am an Orthodox Jew - some would even call me 'ultra-Orthodox.' Born in Boston, I was a corporate and securities attorney in New York City for seven years before making aliya to Israel in 1991 (I don't look it but I really am that old :-). I have been happily married to the same woman for thirty-five years, and we have eight children (bli ayin hara) ranging in age from 13 to 33 years and nine grandchildren. Four of our children are married! Before I started blogging I was a heavy contributor on a number of email lists and ran an email list called the Matzav from 2000-2004. You can contact me at: IsraelMatzav at gmail dot com
