The Jordan Valley obsession
The US's security plan involves a slow transition from IDF patrols over the region to Palestinian Authority (PA) forces, with an international presence, according to reports. IDF drones would also be deployed over the area, as a means of gathering information about any terrorist activity that could potentially develop there.
The Israeli government has insisted that the region is of crucial importance to Israel's future, and has been critical of plans to hand over the area to the PA. Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has insisted that in the event that Israel withdrew from Judea and Samaria, as per Kerry's plans, the Jordan Valley be kept under Israeli control.
The US's plan is based on the 1967 "Allon Plan," which received wide acclaim at the time. The plan insists that the Jordan Valley is the key to Israel's security, even in the event of a withdrawal to 1949 Armistice Lines; however, analysts have noted that the rest of Judea and Samaria is actually more crucial to Israel's security than the Jordan Valley itself.
Despite this, the Israeli government has insisted that its only "red line" would be maintaining its presence in the Valley. On Sunday, a Ministerial Cabinet approved a bill to annex the Valley on that premise.Read the last clause of the second sentence of the third paragraph again:
however, analysts have noted that the rest of Judea and Samaria is actually more crucial to Israel's security than the Jordan Valley itself.If that's true - and one look at a topographical map makes it very obvious why that's true - why is Israel obsessing with the Jordan Valley. In my view, it's a gamble to kill the deal altogether. If Israel were insisting on the high ground of the Samarian mountains (which is what really is critical from a security perspective), then you could in theory reach a compromise on the borders.
But if we insist on the Jordan Valley - and on what would be a logistical nightmare of transiting people between Jerusalem and the Jordan Valley through the 'Palestinian state' on a regular basis - I believe that insistence is grounded in the hope (at least at the Defense Ministry - I believe that Netanyahu genuinely wants a deal) that it will cause the 'negotiations' to bog down and collapse.
Right now, that potential collapse of the 'negotiations' may be our best hope.
Labels: Binyamin Netanyahu, borders and security, defensible borders, interim borders, Jordan Valley, Judea and Samaria, secure borders, temporary borders
posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 12:06 AM
3 Comments:
Keyword: Counties
Has any defense person even floated the idea?
"IDF drones would also be deployed over the area, as a means of gathering information about any terrorist activity that could potentially develop there"
And how exactly is that going to help? The IDF has always known about terrorist activity in areas it has withdrawn from, both in Judea and Samaria and in Gaza. We all know the results: loud complaints from the Israeli side about the activity while refusing to do anything practical about it since the territory was already handed over, eventually leading to repeated terrorist attacks and another war.
Who was it again who said "insanity is doing the same thing over again and expecting different results?"
I think you're underestimating the importance of the Jordan Valley, which, if Israel had sufficient control over, would be the only way to prevent a 'Palestinian' 'State' from becoming another Gaza. Think what Gaza would look like now if Israel had stayed in the Philadelphi corridor...
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