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Thursday, December 19, 2013

The Senate has had it with Iran

The United States Senate has run out of patience with Iran. Later today (Thursday), a bi-partisan group of Senators led by Mark Kirk (R-Il) and Robert Menendez (D-NJ) will introduce legislation to impose new sanctions on Iran if a deal to significantly degrade its nuclear program is not reached within six months.
Under the terms of the Joint Plan of Action hammered out weeks ago in Geneva, a six month period was to take hold during which Iran would freeze progress on its nuclear program and the U.S. would lift some sanctions and refrain from imposing new nuclear-related sanctions.
Under questioning from journalists, the State Department acknowledged days after the deal’s announcement that in fact the six month period had yet to begin, and that it wouldn’t start until Iran agreed on how to implement the JPA. Iran recently broke off the negotiations over the JPA’s implementation, and Agence France-Presse recently assessed that there was no end in sight for those talks. It had in the meantime Iran has continued to enrich uranium, pledged to bolster its plutonium production plant, and announced that it would test ballistic missiles.
The White House has nonetheless been heavily lobbying lawmakers to avoid imposing pressure on Iran during the so-called interim before the interim. Sources who spoke to National Journal implied that the Senate has had enough, and that ‘Iran’s temporary break-off in negotiations with world powers in Vienna last week has reinforced lawmakers’ doubts about Iran’s commitment.’ The bill is said to include options for a Presidential waiver, provided that the administration is able to certify that Iran is meeting its JPA obligations and negotiating in good faith in the context of a final agreement.
The Senate legislation will reportedly stake out positions both on the interim agreement and on what a final deal will need to include to satisfy US lawmakers. During the interim period, new sanctions would be imposed if Tehran violated the terms of the JPA, tested medium or long-range ballistic missiles which could eventually be used to deliver nuclear weapons, or was implicated in terror attacks against the United States anywhere in the world. Regarding a final deal, the legislation reportedly outlines tough sanctions should Iran refuse to substantially degrade its uranium and plutonium programs, both of which are widely thought to be involved in a drive for nuclear weapons. Senators will demand that Tehran meet the terms of the half-dozen binding United Nations Security Council resolutions demanding that it fully suspend those and other elements of its nuclear program.
Lawmakers more broadly have emphasized that the threat of future pressure will strengthen the administration’s hand in upcoming negotiations. Top Iranian officials have boasted that concessions granted under the JPA – which the White House insists are “limited, temporary, targeted, and reversible” – are actually extensive enough to “collapse” the sanctions regime.
Analysts have expressed concerns that the Iranian boasts are justified, and have cited a range of reasons from administration under-counting of how much the relief is worth to a potential feeding frenzy which would see nations and companies rush back into the Iranian market.
Senators are also said to be responding to among other things a convergence of polling showing that as many as eight out of every ten Americans support lawmakers in maintaining or increasing sanctions on Iran as a comprehensive agreement is negotiated.
Read the whole thing.

Obama would love to veto this legislation, but as he found out two years ago, you can't exactly veto legislation that passes 100-0.

But I would get rid of any provision that allows for Presidential waivers. Obama has lied more than any President in American history, and there's no reason to believe that he won't continue to do so. 

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