Iran steps into Obama's Iraq vacuum
In an earlier post, I reported that Iran is shipping weapons to Hezbullah (Lebanon - in response to the person who asked in the comments) via Iraq, in order to avoid the alleged Israeli air strikes that have plagued those shipments in Syria.
The use of Iraq as a transit point is just one symptom of a wider and deeply troubling phenomenon: Iran has stepped into the vacuum created when President Obama ordered US troops to flee Iraq, and Iran now controls Iraq. Here's another example: A September kidnapping and execution of seven MEK (Iranian opposition - banned by the Ayatollahs) members from Iraq is now being blamed on Iran.
The Sept. 1 attack on a base called Camp Ashraf killed at least 50 members of the Mujahedeen-e Khalq, or MEK, which had disarmed at the request of the U.S. military after the American invasion of Iraq and received explicit promises of protection from senior commanders. Instead, gory videos released by the group showed that many of its members had been shot with their hands tied behind their backs or in one of the camp's makeshift hospitals. MEK leaders, backed by an array of U.S. lawmakers, said Iraqi security forces carried out the attack.
Baghdad has long denied the charge, and U.S. officials have now concluded that a small number of Iranian paramilitaries from its feared Islamic Revolution Guards Corps helped plan and direct the assault on the camp. Three officials, speaking to Foreign Policy for the first time, said gunmen from two of Tehran's Iraqi-based proxies, Kitab Hezbollah and Asaib Ahl al-Haq, then carried out the actual attack. The Iranian involvement in the Ashraf massacre hasn't been reported before.
"Iraqi soldiers didn't get in the way of what was happening at Ashraf, but they didn't do the shooting," a U.S. official briefed on the intelligence community's assessment of the attack said in an interview. The official spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss classified information.
U.S. officials say that Iran's role in the attack didn't end with the killings of the MEK members at Ashraf. Instead, officials believe that Iranian commandos and fighters from the country's Iraqi proxies also abducted seven MEK members and smuggled them back to Iran. The missing MEK supporters haven't been seen or heard from since the attack.
Direct Iranian involvement in the Ashraf assault is one of the clearest signs yet of Tehran's growing power within Iraq, a dynamic of deep concern to American policymakers. Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's Shiite government has long maintained close ties with top Iranian leaders, and U.S. officials believe that Tehran prodded Maliki to refuse to sign a bilateral security pact in the fall of 2010 that would have kept some U.S. troops in the country. Perhaps under Iran's influence, Maliki has alienated Iraq's sizable Sunni and Kurdish minorities by centralizing power in Baghdad and refusing to share power or fairly divvy up the country's oil revenues.
The timing of the attack also raises questions about whether Iran's security services are as committed to finding a rapprochement with Washington as its civilian government appears to be. The assault took place in September, several months after negotiators from the two governments had begun secret nuclear talks in Oman that ultimately led to last month's landmark nuclear pact between the Obama administration and the government of Iranian President Hasan Rouhani. The deadly attack on a U.S.-allied group inside Iraq suggests that at least some elements within Tehran are willing to take steps that risk upsetting that fragile equilibrium.But the MEK is insistent that Iraqi troops also had a part in the attack.
MEK leaders in Washington strongly disagree with the U.S. conclusions about the Ashraf attack. They point out that the facility is guarded by fences, checkpoints and more than 1,200 Iraqi troops, making it extremely difficult for gunmen to reach the camp without, at a minimum, the active cooperation of Iraqi forces. They also note that survivors said the masked gunmen spoke Arabic and argue that the group's own operatives within Iran would know if the seven missing members had been brought into the country. They believe that Tehran ordered the attack, but say that it was carried out by Iraqi soldiers loyal to Maliki.It was inevitable that once US troops withdrew from Iraq, someone else would step into the vacuum. The hasty manner in which the troops were withdrawn made sure it was the bad guys - and not the good guys - who would step into the vacuum. Maliki is rolling with the punches and facing the reality that he has been left totally exposed. He isn't strong enough to fight Iran by himself.
Iraq is a case where President Obama snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, and he did so without paying a personal price. Thank you to the mainstream media for not pointing out the truth.
Labels: 1930's, Hezbullah, Iran, Iraq, MEK, Nouri al-Maliki
posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 10:47 AM
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