Israel Matzav: National Security Adviser: Israel can stop Iran 'for a long time,' expect Netanyahu to act

Monday, November 18, 2013

National Security Adviser: Israel can stop Iran 'for a long time,' expect Netanyahu to act

Yaakov Amidror, who until very recently was Prime Minister Netanyahu's National Security Adviser, has told the Financial Times of London that Israel is capable of stopping Iran's nuclear program 'for a long time,' and that Prime Minister Netanyahu will not hesitate to act alone if he feels that Israel is threatened.

[Netanyahu's] comments came as Israel’s former national security adviser, Yaakov Amidror – one of Mr Netanyahu’s closest associates until he stepped down in October – told the Financial Times that his country’s military could stop Iran’s nuclear programme “for a very long time”.

There was “no question” that Mr Netanyahu would be prepared to make the decision to strike unilaterally if necessary.

“We don’t need permission from anyone – we are an independent state,” said Mr Amidror, who has known Mr Netanyahu since 1969 and served as his national security adviser for two-and-a-half years. “We have our own sovereignty. If Israel is in a position in which Israel must defend itself, Israel will do it.”

Mr Amidror also told the FT that Israel’s air force had been conducting “very long-range flights . . . all around the world” as part of its preparations for a possible military confrontation with Iran.

Defence experts have expressed scepticism over Israel’s ability or willingness to strike Iran’s nuclear sites, including the underground enrichment facility at Fordow, on its own, without the backing of the US military.

The US has consistently opposed a unilateral Israeli strike, which could put its military installations in the Gulf at risk, bring massive retaliation against Israel, and draw Washington into a broader regional war.

On the other side, military intelligence chief Amos Yadlin published a major paper last month in which he said that Israel can 'easily handle' any Iranian response to an Israeli attack (pdf link) (Hat Tip: IMRA).

Iran could respond to an attack in two main arenas: against Israel, or in the Persian Gulf against the United States and/or the Sunni Gulf states, mainly Saudi Arabia. The common Western assessment, which envisions a horror scenario of Iranian responses and consequent developments, serves as an excellent deterrence tool for the Iranians by undermining the threat of the military option and reducing the likelihood that the regime in Tehran will agree to a diplomatic solution.

This paper challenges the commonly held Western view through a systematic analysis of Iran’s capabilities and the possible range of Iranian strategies to be used against Israel. The analysis complements studies that have been conducted on the Iranian response in the Gulf, 4 and takes into account the response capability of Iran’s ally Syria and that of Iran’s Lebanese and Palestinian proxies. In addition, this paper makes four policy recommendations to reduce the possibility of regional escalation, which in any case is unlikely, considering the interests of the relevant actors. The main conclusion is that the possibility of a strike against Iran is a pivotal instrument of diplomacy. A measured but credible use of this tool can help achieve the goals of the international campaign: to pressure Iran so that it agrees to concessions regarding its nuclear program, which will ensure that it does not possess military nuclear capabilities, and to reduce the likelihood of regional escalation.

But Israel Radio reports this morning that Israeli policymakers expect that there will be an interim deal between Iran and the P 5+1 this week or next - possibly as soon as Wednesday, and that the existence of such a deal will make it politically more difficult for Prime Minister Netanyahu to order an attack on Iran. According to the report, French President Francois Hollande, who is visiting Israel today (and wreaking havoc on Jerusalem's traffic), has told Prime Minister Netanyahu that he cannot resist the enormous American pressure that is being placed on him to approve a deal. The Prime Minister will meet with Russian President Putin on Wednesday - the same day that the next round of P 5+1 talks open in Geneva, but no one really expects anything to come from that meeting.

Israel Radio also reports that despite the French saying that the deal to be signed with Iran is 'improved' and includes a halt to construction of the plutonium reactor at Arak and to the further enrichment of uranium to the 20% level, the expectation here is that even if those items are included in any eventual deal, Iran will follow in North Korea's footsteps and violate the deal almost immediately.

So despite our military people saying that we can handle this, we're going to sit on the sidelines and watch Obama bungle it and possibly get a lot of us killed, God forbid.

What could go wrong?

Labels: Barack Hussein Obama, Binyamin Netanyahu, Francois Hollande, Iran sanctions regime, Iranian nuclear threat, Israeli attack on Iran, P 5+1, Vladimir Putin