The soldiers of the next war with Hezbullah: You and me
Ben Caspit argues that in the next war with Hezbullah, the soldiers will be you and me
. And the IDF is preparing for it.
Wars against guerrilla organizations with state-like capabilities
cannot be decided on the ground, but rather in the minds of people.
Israel has been intensively preparing for such a war.
In 2006, the IDF
attempted to carry out a well-known ground maneuver that failed because
Israel did not face a clearly defined enemy and its military was not
geared toward looking for guerilla fighters in Lebanon’s mountainous
terrain. Since then, several chief commanders of the Northern
Territorial Command have promised, in their very own words, that Israel
will not spare Lebanon’s infrastructures and will wreak as much
destruction in as little time as possible to force Nasrallah to stop
firing rockets and missiles well before he runs out of them.
And there’s something else. According to quite a few assessments, when
the next war breaks out, Nasrallah will attempt to do what no Arab
leader has attempted to do in the last 40 years.
He will try to carry
out a strategic seizure of areas within Israel proper. In a swift and
startling commando operation, he will attempt to invade it and perhaps
take over the Karmia kibbutz or the town of Shlomi or any other Israeli
town close enough to the Blue Line. Israel might be caught off guard.
The IDF looks with concern at the ground capabilities Hezbollah has
been demonstrating in Syria, noting that it has learned to operate large
ground frameworks such as battalions, brigades and even larger ones. It
can carry out an orderly ground campaign, putting up military-like
resistance. In light of this, the IDF is bracing for the possibility
that Hezbollah — if only to go down in history as having done this —
will attempt to mount such a “mindset-changing” move, hitting Israel in
its underbelly, thereby breaking the paradigm that “no foothold inside
Israel’s territory will be allowed.”
Incidentally, this will take place if and when Israel strikes Iran. I have written extensively
on this subject, although nothing is definitive. It depends on many
variables as well as the personalities of the decision-makers on all
sides. Israel views Hezbollah as a forward outpost of Iran’s
Revolutionary Guard, a kind of an Iranian bridgehead that will rain hellish fire on it come D-Day.
In Israel, it is amply clear that the soldiers of the next war will be
its citizens and not its military personnel. This is the reason why the
Home Front Command has been beefed up recently, seeing a bitter fight
over the division of purviews between Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon and
Home Front Minister Gilad Erdan.
The world has changed, and with it the nature of war. Israel, for a
change, is trying to prepare for the next war and not for the previous
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Labels: Galilee farmers, Hezbullah, IDF, IDF Home Front Command, Second Lebanon War