Israel Matzav

Hamas takes a beating

Jonathan Schanzer argues that Hamas suffered a serious blow with the fall of Mohammed Morsy's Muslim Brotherhood junta in Egypt.

After Morsy’s ejection last week, Gaza-based leader Ismail Haniyeh stated that he was “not afraid.” If he isn’t, he should be. Now, Hamas has only two patrons left, and both are Western allies that could be tempted to throw Hamas under the bus for greater financial or political incentives. Meanwhile, the Egyptian Army has stepped up efforts to block Hamas’ financial lifeline, the underground smuggling tunnels connecting Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula to Gaza, while the Rafah Border crossing – the only overland exit for the Hamas-controlled territory – has remained largely closed since Morsy’s dramatic demise.

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As one Israeli official put it, Egypt was Hamas’s “back office.” The Brotherhood played a particularly crucial role in ensuring the bulk-cash smuggling that has kept Gaza’s economy running.

In other words, under Morsy, the Egyptian government was at odds with itself. Conspiratorial minds might even link the Hamas issue to last week’s toppling, but the country’s Gaza policy was not even a peripheral reason for the military’s intervention.

For Hamas now, the problem is less about the Egyptian army’s wrath or the rapid unraveling of Morsy, and more about the overall beating that the Muslim Brotherhood brand just took. In Egypt, there is no easy way forward. The movement can either swallow its defeat and retreat to its former role of Islamic opposition, or launch an “intifada” against the state. These are tough choices for the “mother ship” of the Muslim Brotherhood, which sets the tone for the other regional movements, including Hamas.

Hamas’ adversaries understand this. Israel’s public security minister Yitzhak Aharonovitch recently suggested that the Islamist faction was weaker. Palestine Liberation Organization official Yasser Abed Rabbo also called upon Hamas to rethink its position in the region. “The victory of the revolution in Egypt and the fall of the Muslim Brotherhood warrants [such] reflection,” he told Palestinian state radio, adding, “Hamas must realize that the Brotherhood can no longer protect it."

The PLO, of course, lacks the means to topple Hamas, and the Israelis are not likely to strike at Hamas given the multitude of other military threats on their plate (Iran nukes and Syrian WMD are chief among them).

For the moment, then, Hamas is probably safe. It still appears to have the backing of Qatar and Turkey. Nevertheless, the divorce from Iran and Syria, followed by the collapse of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, give the impression that Hamas has buckled at the knees. Whether it is allowed to stand again may depend upon the new junta in Cairo.

So long as the current regimes in Qatar and Turkey remain in power, they will continue to support Hamas. But one has to start to wonder how long the regime in Turkey will last, and how active Turkey's support can be given the recently arising challenges to Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

What could go wrong?

Labels: Egypt, Gaza, Hamas, Mohammed Morsy, Muslim Brotherhood, Qatar, Turkey

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 10:48 PM