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Wednesday, March 27, 2013

Khameni willing to talk to the US... but only to buy time

Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khameni is willing to open bilateral talks with the United States, but apparently only to buy time.
However, Khamenei is not optimistic about this scenario. He believes that Americans want Iranians to engage in bilateral talks to dictate their will and force Iran to halt its enrichment program. In his speech, he stressed, “From the viewpoint of the Americans, negotiation does not mean that we should sit down together and try to find a logical solution. … What they mean is that we should sit down together and speak until Iran accepts their views.”
Built on this conviction, a worst-case scenario emerges: By agreeing to bilateral talks, Khamenei could nullify the damaging effects of the new US tactic of repeatedly proposing talks. He maintains, “Our interpretation is that offers of negotiation are an American tactic to mislead public opinion in the world and in Iran.”
In Khamenei’s view, Iran’s engagement in mutual talks would reveal the United States’ real aim in insisting on talks with Iran as stripping Iran of its rights under the Non-Proliferation Treaty to peaceful nuclear technology. This could explain his opposition to engagement with the United States, would portray the US as an irrational bully and would let Iranians hold the Americans — and not their leader — responsible for the hardships they face as a result of sanctions.

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Direct talks, if they happen, between parties with these opposite assessments are a recipe for failure.
Iran is unlikely to bow to US pressure for two reasons:
  1. Ayatollah Khamenei is apprehensive about losing stature if he were to concede Iran’s “inalienable rights,” as he has often put it, under humiliating conditions; and,
  2. He firmly believes that “if the officials of the country get daunted by the bullying of the arrogant powers and … make concessions to those powers, these concessions will never come to an end,” maintaining that, “Indeed, the end to US pressure and intimidation will only come when Iranian officials … compromise … the Islamic Republic.”
Direct talks between Iran and the US may not inspire high hopes for an end to Iran’s nuclear crisis. However, they are the last chance to avoid a disastrous war.
It sounds to me like Khameni is looking to stall long enough to get a nuclear weapon in place. He apparently has at least until June, and by agreeing to talks could extend the deadline a bit longer.

What could go wrong?

Read the whole thing

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