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Sunday, February 03, 2013

'All of Lebanon is now South Lebanon'

Jonathan Schanzer reports that the next war between Israel and Lebanon is a question of when, not if, and that it's likely to be very bloody.
Today, by leveraging its military power in the Lebanese political arena, Hezbollah is now in control of the government. In the process, it has spread its influence from beyond Lebanon's south and the eastern Beqaa Valley. Indeed, the Israelis warn that Hezbollah has installed rocket silos and weapons caches throughout the country.
The exact number of rockets in Hezbollah's hands right now is not known. Conservative estimates indicate that it's around 60,000. And Israel's military establishment is keenly aware that it's not a question of if Hezbollah will use them, it's a question of when.
In all likelihood, whenever Iran wishes to make war – in retaliation for Israel's recent air strikes against the convoy in Syria, in response to a perceived threat against the Iranian nuclear program, or for any other reason – Hezbollah will likely be the actor to prompt it.
Israelis say that this war could be very costly in terms damage to Israel, particularly if longer-range rockets target Haifa, Tel Aviv, and other high-density cities. But the Israelis are also nervous about how the war will impact Lebanon. Given the way Hezbollah has reportedly squirreled away its ordnance in heavily populated areas, even Israeli surgical strikes will almost certainly yield mass casualties. Lebanese citizens are reportedly aware of this, and the anxiety level is rising there, too.
"The world needs to be prepared for the next war with Lebanon," the aforementioned senior official told me in Jerusalem. "It could be a very bad war."
What could go wrong?

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At 7:08 PM, Blogger Empress Trudy said...

This is a silly argument. Lebanon will blanket ALL of Israel it is capable of attacking. Respond in kind. It wouldn't matter if a single IDF mortar landed 50 ft inside of Lebanon, the reaction would be the same. If anything Israel's response should ruthlessly and completely obliterate Hezbollah's command structure. Put bunker busters on every conceivable hole in the ground Nasrallah is hiding in as well as 500 of his closest friends and family.

At 8:49 PM, Blogger NormanF said...

Drop neutron bombs on that country and wipe a Jew-hating country out of existence.

Israeli squeamishness in not doing what their ancestors did is not a sign of enlightenment; its a sign of a lack of faith in G-d and an unwillingness to hold onto the entire land.

In the end, the problem isn't the Arabs. The problem is with the Jews. Technological superiority of arms in a war can be neutralized by lack of faith.

Ehud Olmert fought the last war with Hezbollah to a standstill. The Arabs do not respect the weak and Israel's Jews had better never forget it!

What could wrong indeed


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