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Monday, January 07, 2013

60% chance Obama will bomb Iran says... Anne Marie Slaughter!?!

Here's a fascinating segment from Sunday's Fareed Zakaria's GPS on CNN with Princeton Professor and former Obama adviser Anne Marie Slaughter.
ZAKARIA: Iran.

SLAUGHTER: So I think this president will be different than other presidents in terms of actually being willing to strike Iran because this president came into office determined to move the world away from nuclear weapons.

He came in with the idea that if we have 30 countries in the world with nuclear weapons, we're going to blow ourselves up. Part of his legacy is to actually move away from -- to a less -- to a world that could imagine not having nuclear weapons. So Iran, for him, is not just about Israel's security, it's not just about Middle East, it is about if another nation gets nuclear weapons, we are never going to be able to stop this.

So I actually think if they go toward deciding to get a nuclear weapon, he will strike. He will not live with containment, but for broader reasons than other presidents had.

ZAKARIA: So the exit question, I'll start with you Ian, is simple, is there -- will there be an Israeli or American strike in 2013?

...

ZAKARIA: So no strike, no deal? Would you agree?

HAASS: But the chances of a strike are not negligible. I would say they're somewhere around 30 or 40 percent because we can't live with a nuclear weapon and Israel and the United States may not be able to live with something that close to it.

SLAUGHTER: I think the chances of a strike are over 50 percent and because I think that's true, I think the chances of a deal are probably higher than Ian does because I think the Iranians are going to know that.

And there are an awful lot of reasons domestically, in terms of the falling apart of the Iranian economy, that means they are looking for a way to get a deal.

ZAKARIA: But you can't -- the deal and the strike have to collectively add up to 100 percent, right? Because so ...

SLAUGHTER: OK, so I would give it 60 percent of strike, 40 percent chance of deal.
Hmmm.

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