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Tuesday, November 06, 2012

Obama's intentions on Iran

In addition to proving outright that President Obama lied about Iran in the Presidential debates (is anyone really surprised?), Jonathan Tobin argues that the disclosure on Monday of negotiations over Iran's nuclear program being headed up by neophyte Valerie Jarrett calls into question Obama's intentions or Iran.
Jarrett was born in Shiraz, Iran (her father ran a hospital there) but left when she was 5, though she is said to have spoken Persian as a child. But that’s the extent of her expertise on the country. Her main qualification is that she is a close confidante of both the president and his wife. She is also widely given credit for helping to jump-start the president’s career by introducing him into the corrupt world of Chicago politics, where she was a significant player. That gives her credibility with the Iranians since she has a direct line to the White House. But if a re-elected Obama is rightly suspected of wanting to show more “flexibility” with America’s foes, then the Jarrett caper seems to be evidence that he is more interested in making this sore issue go away rather than pushing Iran hard to give up the possibility of attaining a weapon.
Though Jarrett and Obama may think their Chicago background makes them tough, the Iranians have made fools of every Western negotiator they’ve dealt with in the past decade, because of their tenacity and willingness to use the charade of talks as a way to run out the clock while their scientists get closer to achieving the country’s nuclear ambition. While the sanctions that the administration reluctantly put in place against Iran have caused the country economic pain, the American conviction that this gives them leverage over the ayatollahs may be mistaken. So long as the Iranian regime believes they can outlast and out-talk the West on this issue, it’s doubtful they can be compelled to sign a deal that would eliminate the nuclear threat–or to observe it even if they did.
While the president has been talking tough about Iran during the election year, it remains to be seen how tough his envoy has been with the Iranians in their secret talks. If Ms. Jarrett emerges with a deal sometime after the election, the suspicion is that her goal is more to get the president off the hook for his promises than to actually stop the Iranians.
I'll go further. I'll predict that  sometime after the elections - regardless of their outcome - Obama will announce an agreement with Iran that will leave the Mullahcracy with a nuclear enrichment capability, but that will weakly commit the Iranians not to develop nuclear weapons. If he is still in power, Obama will then seek to blackmail Israel with pariah status if it attacks Iran on its own. In Obama's perfect world, he would be able to cut Israel loose outright unless the 'Palestinians' get their reichlet.

By the way, it was Jarrett who three times got Obama to call off the Osama Bin Laden liquidation.

What could go wrong?

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