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Monday, November 05, 2012

Do Americans ever lie to the pollsters? If so, when and why? Here's a fascinating blog post that looks at those questions.
But why do people lie to pollsters?  Well, probably because they feel uncomfortable with telling them their true feelings.  This propensity has been identified in the past as "the Bradley/Wilder effect," after 2 accomplished American politicians who lost elections quite handily after leading in the polls near election day.  Both of them were black, and went up against white opponents.  The Bradley/Wilder effect has been defined as a racial phenomenon, with white people not wanting to appear racist to the pollster by admitting he was planning to vote for the white candidate, and therefore lying. But what explains the Silber effect, where both candidates were white?

The Silber effect can be defined as respondents lying to pollsters because they don't want to admit they hold a politically incorrect view.  As the American media and popular culture has moved further and further into the berserk-left fever swamps, the number of normal people finding themselves to be further and further "out of the mainstream."  At least out of the abnormal, politically correct media world mainstream.  

Hence, more and more people lying to pollsters.

This would explain the tremendous crowds turning out for Mitt Romney (dwarfing those for Obama) and the enormous Republican gains in early voting and absentee ballots, while all the polls show the race within 2-3 points of 50% either way, even in states with strong Republican majorities in their statehouses, like Florida, Ohio, and Wisconsin.  It would explain the consistent panic and ill-temper of the Obama campaign, while the Romney folks are upbeat and cheerful. 

This year, we have a double-whammy.  We have a black vs. white candidate, but the black candidate is the incumbent, which in theory should render the Bradley/Wilder effect negligible.  But Pres. Obama ran in 2008 as a healer, a practical, common-sense moderate with the vaguest slogan ever heard, only to govern from the furthest left ever seen in the White House.  So expect A LOT of erosion of his support from broadly moderate or even liberal voters.  But in the privacy of the ballot box, not while talking to pollsters.
Hmmm. Read the whole thing (there's a lot more). 

Are American voters lying to the pollsters? We'll find out on Wednesday morning.

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At 12:03 AM, Blogger Captain.H said...

Americans probably are lying to the pollsters, for the reasons stated. However, the liberal MSM-commissioned polls are also lying, BIG-TIME, to the American people. The polls the MSM are using are typically with over-sampled Democrats and under-sampled independents and Republicans. You can read all about this at blogs, including Hot Air dot com, Dick Morris dot com, etc., etc.

There's going to be a lot of MSM types with a lot of egg on their faces the day after the election. President-Elect Romney, a (slim) Republican Senate majority, a (slightly) increased Republican House majority, most Governor elections going to the Republicans, etc. The rank & file Dems are in for a very unpleasant shock.


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