Four more years of Obama makes another Middle East war more likely
- The big loser is Israel. It now has to make a choice – does it accept a practically nuclear Iran and keep President Obama’s support, or does it try to stop Iran unilaterally and risk Obama’s abandonment? Israel itself goes to the polls in a few months and this will surely be a critical issue.What could go wrong?
- The big winner is Iran. Obama will likely make a deal with the Iranian regime. In exchange for Iran stopping just short of nuclear weapons – just one screw’s turn away – the president will drop sanctions and restore relations. It will look like a diplomatic victory for Obama personally, but what it means is in essence a nuclear Iran becomes a nuclear weapons state and can dominate the oil-rich Persian Gulf. The world’s energy security will to a great extent be in Iran’s hands.
- The big question mark is the Middle East. Do Iran’s neighbors go nuclear themselves, creating a nuclear arms race in one of the most dangerous and economically important parts of the world? Or do they accommodate Iran, and let Iran dominate the region from Iraq to Egypt? The Arab spring nations will move into increasingly towards chaos and Islamism. They will blame Israel and the US for their economic woes. As America retreats from the region, Israel will be isolated. Another Arab Israeli war is likely.
Labels: Arab spring, Barack Hussein Obama, Binyamin Netanyahu, Iranian nuclear threat, Israeli attack on Iran, nuclear weapons
posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 1:26 PM
2 Comments:
From a Christian perspective (other than that is my belief--I'm not a particularly actively practicing one, and yes I know how that sounds), I have to wonder if we truly are not looking at the end days and Armegeddon. Even in 2008 I wondered.
I had this very sinking feeling, that although all the outward signs, the enthusiasm, seemed to point to ousting Obama, it wasn't going to happen. And I found myself thinking the Prophesy of the one who will promise peace, who is charismatic and will fool people, who will reign for 7 years....
My sense is the next years are going to be a conflagration of 'change'--the likes that many don't and can't imagine--and will regret. And I sort of muse of the events and that we may see [more] things that fit into the end days Biblical prophecy.
I think I need to pull out my Bible and refresh, perhaps. Even if I feel a bit ridiculous saying it--because it conflicts with my practical logic.
The problem for Iran is that ideologically they can't adopt a bomb in the basement approach. They MUST tell the world they are a bona fide nuclear state. This is crucial to them. This last turn of the screw approach will not suffice, and honestly, if I were them I wouldn't respect it either. Why? Obama won't do anything, the EU, Russia or China won't do anything. Moreover Obama wants to be able to sell his chest thumping that he actually stopped nuclear escalation so he'll HAVE to block all the Arab states from adopting a nuclear weapons program at all costs.
What's ironic or funny, is that as we speak, the UK is quietly but seriously considering the ramifications of abandoning nuclear weapons entirely. Restaging them from sub bases in Scotland, which as an independent country will forbid them would cost 10 Downing street 50 billion pounds it doesn't have. It may be an opportune time to get rid of the whole thing.
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