Tidal wave building?
Is there a tidal wave building against Barack Obama? Does the Obama campaign believe (regardless of whether it's true) that there's a tidal wave building against Barack Obama? Doug Ross puts some data points together. (Hat Tips: Bad Blue and Memeorandum). Obama doubles field offices in "leans Dem" New Mexico:Read the whole thing. And a great, big HMMM....
Real Clear Politics currently has New Mexico leaning toward Obama by ten points...
...Given Obama’s troubles raising cash and Mitt Romney’s distinct campaign dollar advantage, you do not suddenly open up twice as many field offices in a state in which you’re polling ten points ahead, unless you are seeing something troubling going on.
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• Losing the Independents
Carville and Greenberg have just released a new poll, and it’s devastating for Obama. Among independents — the precious, eagerly sought, oh-God-everybody-loves-them independents — Romney leads Obama (this is a poll this week) by 15 points, 53 to 38 in independents. This is remarkable. This is a Stan Greenberg and James Carville poll. “Independents disapprove of Obama’s job performance 56 to 40%. And when looking at intensity, disapproval is greater than two to one, 47 to 20%.”
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Boston Globe: Predictive Model Yields Romney Landslide
The Lexington economic forecasting firm takes two economic indicators plus three political variables, plugs them into a formula, and out pops the percentage of the popular vote the incumbent party is expected to win. The formula has correctly predicted the outcome in 14 of the last 16 presidential elections...
...The most recent update of the formula, using July economic data, shows President Obama losing decisively, with just over 45 percent of the popular vote.
Labels: Barack Hussein Obama, Campaign 2012
posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 10:43 AM
2 Comments:
A whole century of American history shows that incumbent presidents are only defeated when the economy is in the toilet. It's the American peoples' way of expressing their extreme displeasure, firing the incumbent and giving the new guy a chance.
The economy is certainly in the toilet, probably the worst numbers since the Great Depression, although not that bad.
I really think that at this point, a vast majority of Americans have decided for whom they'll vote. I did 4 years ago-ANYBODY BUT OBAMA!
The best outcome would be a landslide for Romney-Ryan, Republican capture of a Senate majority and a strengthened House majority. Of course, the win will have to be above the margin of Democratic vote fraud.
Captain H: "Of course, the win will have to be above the margin of Democratic vote fraud."
This is difficult in some states at least until 2015. Rotten, rotten Dems have undermined the vote.
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