Israel Matzav

'Palestinians' waiting for Obama 2.0: Could Obama cut off Israel's foreign aid?

Two weeks ago, I outlined the case for the 'Palestinian statehood' gambit working at the United Nations once the US election has passed. Others are now writing the same thing. Here's Awr Hawkins at Breitbart.com:

However, the AP is reporting that Abbas may wait until after the Nov. US elections to prevent "unwelcome complications to US-president Barack Obama's re-election efforts."

A request for statehood in the UN has to make it beyond the General Assembly to the Security Council. There, one state can veto the Palestinian request and statehood is denied.

Historically that one veto been the U.S., but I wonder if a re-elected Obama might feel obligated to pay the Palestinians back for their support should he be re-elected?

Here's Mohammed Daragmeh at Times of Israel.

Some Abbas aides are pushing for quick action, while Abbas is said to be leaning toward waiting until after the US presidential election in November. An earlier Palestinian UN bid could add unwelcome complications to UN President Barack Obama’s re-election efforts.

Palestinian officials have not taken sides publicly in the US presidential race. Although they have expressed disappointment over what they perceive as Obama’s failure to pressure Israel, they hope that — if re-elected — he will be more decisive in seeking a Mideast deal and freed from some of the domestic political shackles that hinder first-term presidents.

We all know what 'more decisive' means. President Obama himself told Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev in a candid moment that he thought was off camera and off mic.

Jonathan Tobin also believes that the 'Palestinians' are banking on a second Obama term, but he doesn't believe that will necessarily help the 'Palestinians':

Far more significant than the posturing in Ramallah were the comments by aides of PA President Mahmoud Abbas that their UN campaign would be largely put on hold until after the U.S. presidential election. As the Times of Israel reports, Abbas is planning to soft pedal his UN effort until November because he understands that any talk about the Palestinians could hinder Obama’s re-election hopes. Though the PA has been dismayed by the president’s election year Jewish charm offensive that has seen their concerns pigeonholed in Washington, Abbas is clearly hoping for a better result once Obama is safely returned to office.

...

As for their cherished hopes that a second Obama administration would do their bidding, that is exactly the sort of rumbling that scares Democrats who fear Jewish voters will remember the three years of administration pressure on Israel rather than the last few months of friendship. But even though the Palestinians have good reason to think that a Romney administration would be far less willing to tilt the diplomatic playing field in their direction as Obama has done, they need to remember why they’ve accomplished nothing in the past four years.

Even though Obama has been the least friendly president to Israel in at least a generation, the Palestinians got nothing out of it. President Obama picked fights with Israel over settlements, the 1967 lines and the status of Jerusalem, but the Palestinians still struck out because they foolishly thought Obama would do all their dirty work for them and still refused to negotiate.

Israelis may worry about what Obama’s re-election will mean for them, as they know it is a certainty that the charm offensive will end the day after the election. But they can take comfort in the fact that it isn’t likely that Mahmoud Abbas will get any braver or smarter in the next four years. Even with a friend in the White House, the Palestinians will gain no territory or a state so long as they are unwilling to negotiate. Nor can they hope to achieve those goals unless they are prepared to recognize the legitimacy of a Jewish state no matter where its borders are drawn. Because that is still a virtual impossibility, their faith in Obama or the ability of any American politician to help them is clearly misplaced.

I hope Tobin is right, but I fear that he's wrong. Obama can do a lot of damage to Israel once he is reelected because there are foreign policy functions that a President can carry out unilaterally. For example, what if Obama said in 2013 that he is sequestering all US foreign aid that Congress had allocated to Israel until Israel accepts a 'Palestinian state' on the 1949 armistice lines? Notice, no requirement that the 'Palestinians' do anything. (If you think that could not happen, recall George H.W. Bush holding up loan guarantees to Israel over 'settlements'). Could Congress do anything to force President Obama to release that money? Probably not.

What could go wrong?

Labels: Barack Hussein Obama, Obama's obsession with Palestinians, Palestinian state RIGHT NOW syndrome, US foreign aid

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 9:43 PM