Israel Matzav

Coalition crisis over draft law

A coalition crisis is brewing between the Likud and Kadima over efforts to force Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) men to be exposed to the draft at age 18. On Wednesday, negotiations between the two parties fell apart, and now Kadima leader Shaul Mofaz is threatening to withdraw from the government.

Vice Premier Shaul Mofaz convened his Kadima faction on Wednesday amid a break down in efforts to draft a universal service bill, saying "we are in the midst of a crisis, but we also have an opportunity. Without a meaningful solution we cannot remain in the government." Mofaz stated that he would leave the coalition by Friday if progress was not made on the issue.

Mofaz called the emergency meeting after Kadima MK Yohanan Plesner walked out of a meeting with Vice Premier Moshe Ya'alon aimed at finding a replacement for the Tal Law. Plesner said negotiations on a universal service bill were "at a dead end."

Mofaz said that he was meeting Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu on Wednesday evening to discuss the issue.

After Plesner and Ya’alon discussed and agreed on enlistment quotas and personal sanctions for those who do not join the IDF or do national service, the Likud minister presented a different stance in a Wednesday-afternoon meeting, according to Kadima.

A Kadima source, while unable to specify the changes Ya’alon requested, said they would turn the bill into “a copy of the Tal Law,” which allowed haredim to indefinitely postpone service, and make it “empty of content.”

Ya'alon rejected Kadima's claims that there was a "blow up" in the meeting with Plesner.

Speaking in an interview with Army Radio Ya'alon downplayed the issue, saying, "Kadima should come back. My door is open. I still want to pass a bill. If we don't succeed in legislating it by the end of the [Knesset] term, there might not be a bill. It looks more political than practical," Ya'alon said.

The Likud minister said that if a replacement for the Tal Law was not legislated by July 31 when the Tal Law expires, the authority to enlist haredim will go to the Defense Ministry.

"We will bring more people sharing the burden in the Arab and haredi sectors with or without Kadima," Ya'alon stated. "There is a principled argument on whether we want more haredim or to declare war on the haredim. They are insisting on throwing haredim in jail. Throw people in jail for learning Torah? If we do that, all the progress that has been made with the programs that there already are will go backwards," he added.

If they insist on throwing the Haredim in jail and the rabbis say to go to jail, there will not be enough cells to hold all the Haredim. That's reality.

In a Thursday morning interview with Israel Radio, Yaalon elaborated on his position.

"I would like to see the haredim join the IDF at 18 years old," Ya'alon said. "But if we try this, we will start a civil war."

...

The main dispute between Likud and Kadima was over whether there should be quotas limiting the number of yeshiva students permitted to avoid the draft, as Kadima demands, or merely setting targets for the number of haredim drafted, which the Likud prefers. The parties also disagree on the final age at which service could be avoided and the extent of sanctions against draft evaders.

Ya'alon said that his proposal was more realistic than that being put forth by MK Yohanan Plesner, the Kadima MK who has taken up the mantle of increasing the IDF draft rate for haredim. "The haredim will not vote for my proposal, but they will not star a civil war over it," Ya'alon said, "Plesner's proposal will erase all the inroads we've made in integrating haredim, including the Nahal Haredi program."

Ya'alon added that the Likud has accepted the fundamentals of Plesner's recommendations, but that negotiations are being held up by Plesner's own personal stubbornness.

Nahal Haredi, by the way, is the largest single unit in the IDF today.

YNet adds:

Kadima sources said that this was the biggest crisis since the Plesner Committee was dissolved a week ago and blamed the prime minister for going back on agreed-upon points regarding the draft age, exemption quotas, and personal and community sanctions for draft-dodgers. According to Kadima, all the most important points of the law had been rejected.

On Tuesday evening, after meeting with Plesner, Ya'alon updated Netanyahu on the negotiations' progress, and it appeared that things were on the right track to coalesce a bill to be brought to the Knesset next week.

Whether this is a negotiating tactic or a true breakdown, Kadima is claiming that Netanyahu is not interested in presenting a decision to the cabinet next week and therefore torpedoed the talks.

Last Sunday, the Likud faction approves five basic principles from the Plesner Committee, including personal responsibility for haredi draft-dodgers; universal draft; and sanctions against institutions that encourage draft-dodging. After approving these points, the Likud said that the only part of the Plesner Committee's recommendations it did not accept was the idea of drafting Israeli Arabs.

Kadima is trying to do three things: Save its own very bleak political future, pass a very populist law, and destroy the connection between the political right and the religious right (which don't necessarily go together in this country). Withdrawing from the government accomplishes none of those goals, although it might turn many Kadima MK's (if there are any left) into martyrs after a future election.

The Likud, on the other hand, wants to change as little as possible in order to preserve potential future partnerships with the Haredim, it wants to do just enough to avoid the embarrassment of having to deal with the Supreme Court again, and it has absolutely no fear of elections, with survey after survey showing that it would emerge as by far the largest party.

Look for a minimalist deal to be reached and look for Kadima to stay in the coalition. But if Kadima does withdraw from the coalition, you can bet that the Haredim, at least, will give the Likud peace and quiet until the next election in November 2013.

Yisrael Beiteinu? Unlikely to withdraw since they will also lose seats to Yair Lapid in any future election. Notice how they have toned down their rhetoric since Netanyahu sent Yaalon to take the lead in the negotiations.

What could go wrong?

Labels: Haredim, IDF, Knesset elections 2012, Nachal Charedi

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 8:41 AM