Israel Matzav: Liveblog from #tomorrow12 The Tomorrow's Borders of Israel

Thursday, June 21, 2012

Liveblog from #tomorrow12 The Tomorrow's Borders of Israel

This is a liveblog of the 'Tomorrow's borders' panel. The list of panelists and their bios are here.

Nir Hefetz opens with story of Israel postponing the 'settlement freeze' due to a demand that it include Jerusalem before it was even voted upon. Implies that George Mitchell leaked it to Yediot's Shimon Shiffer to try to pressure the government.

Dan Rothem gives demographic statistics and slips in double counting of 'east' Jerusalem Aravs without most people noticing. He also uses Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS) figures for Judea and Samaria as if they were reliable. He uses 2012 numbers for overall, but 2010 numbers for 'east' Jerusalem claiming 285,000 Arabs.

Naftali Bennett gets up to speak. Bennett says conflict can't be solved but we can learn to live with it (which is what I have argued on this blog many times). He has up the JCPA topographical map:

Bennett comes to 1.8 million 'Palestinians' in Judea and Samaria, while Rothem had put up a number of 4.3 million. That's what the argument over demography is about.

Bennett gives his plan. NO expulsions - not for Israelis and not for 'Palestinians.' Says most Arabs just want to live. Focus on what we can solve. Don't waste time in Oslo and Annapolis. Shooting for perfection will just bring disaster.

Caroline Glick is next. Says she agrees with Bennett and that we should accept the fact that Judea and Samaria belong to Israel. Says 'Palestinians' don't want peace and that we have fulfilled our obligations under UN resolutions. The only legally binding document under international law is the British Mandate and that said that Judea and Samaria belong to Israel.

Three models: 'Palestinian' sovereignty, i.e. Gaza. Shared sovereignty like Judea and Samaria but 'Palestinians' are using that to erode our legitimacy. Sole Israeli sovereignty like in Jerusalem. Sole Israeli sovereignty does much better job of guaranteeing citizens rights.

Why no Israeli Arab terrorism? The reason is because Israel has sovereignty in Galilee and Negev.

Caroline posts demographic study from 1997-2009 and says she will give Arabs citizenship. Says that Rothem's data has been proven incorrect since 2004. It relied on 1997 PCBS census that overstated by more than 1.8 million. Birth rates converging. Massive aliya potential in Europe. 'Palestinians' have net emigration since 1994. From a demographic perspective, the future belongs to the Jews. We are only western democracy with fertility rate above replacement rate (US at 2.1 is around replacement rate).

Ilan Paz next - battery running out. Paz urges accepting Rothem's statistics. Says PCBS reliable. Then goes on to talk about security fence. Argues that Jerusalem is not united and therefore we should give up Arab neighborhoods and we can solve the problem of the holy basin. Of course, Paz ignores the fact that surveys have found that the 'Palestinian' Arabs in Jerusalem don't want to live in a 'Palestinian state.'

Makovsky is next. He reads what Netanyahu said a couple of weeks ago, and says that Netanyahu says we need peace to avoid a binational state and that we don't want 'Palestinians' to be part of our state. He says no one wants to annex the 'Palestinians.' Israel does not want a binational state.

Makovsky developed a map of a proposed peace agreement.

He claims there is hope for peace, and that the gaps are narrower than people realize.

Now in moderator's Q&A. Makovsky says that based on his conversations with Abu Bluff, they understand that Israel is going to maintain a presence in the Jordan Valley for some time to come even if there is an agreement. I find it hard to believe Abu Bluff will accept that.

I did not get to ask the questions I wanted to ask in the Q&A. I wanted to point out that the statistics presented by Rothem and Paz double counted the 'east' Jerusalem Arabs, and whether it matters how small the gaps are when we all have seen that the 'Palestinians' have not made a single concession at least since 1993.

Labels: Caroline Glick, David Makovsky, Naftali Bennett, President's Conference