Israel Matzav

Gearing up for war?

On Tuesday evening, I posted a video of Egyptian cleric Safwat Higazi calling for an Islamic Caliphate with its capital in Jerusalem. Walter Russell Mead points out that this is far from being the only threat of war emanating out of Egypt, and that Israel is turning up the rhetoric as well (Hat Tip: Memeorandum).

According to the latest polling from the Pew Global Attitudes Project, a majority of Egyptians want to ditch the peace treaty with Israel:

Most Egyptians favor overturning the 1979 peace treaty in which Egypt became the first Arab country to formally recognize Israel. Roughly six-in-ten (61%) want to annul the treaty, up slightly from last year (54%). Just under a third (32%) want to maintain it.

Opposition to the treaty has grown significantly over the last year among young people and the highly educated. Support for annulling the treaty has increased by 14 points among 18–29 year-olds and by 18 points among the college-educated.

Meanwhile, Egypt and Israel are at each other’s throats over Egypt’s cancelation of a Mubarak-era natural gas export deal. Egyptian officials insist the decision wasn’t politically motivated but stems from Israel’s failure to pay for the gas. Israel depends on Egyptian natural gas for 40 percent of its energy needs

The rhetoric on both sides is escalating. Israel’s Finance Ministry called Egypt’s decision ”a dangerous precedent that casts clouds over the peace agreements and the atmosphere of peace between Egypt and Israel.” Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi warned that Egypt’s border was “perpetually in danger.” Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman said Egypt was a “greater threat than Iran.” Egyptian officials have said they were well within their rights to cancel the deal—a Muslim Brotherhood spokesman called the decision “excellent.” In response, Israel appears to have mobilized six reserve battalions to defend the border with Egypt, as well as Syria.

I highly doubt Israel would undertake a preemptive attack unless it felt an imminent threat. But the problem here goes well beyond the Egyptian-Israeli treaty. As I have pointed out previously, if the Egyptian treaty proves to be unreliable, there won't be any others with the 'Palestinians' or any other Arab entity. Maybe that's a more realistic position to take anyway.

Labels: Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 7:18 AM