Israel Matzav: Obama thinks he's convinced Bibi to wait

Thursday, February 09, 2012

Obama thinks he's convinced Bibi to wait

The New York Times reports that the White House thinks it has persuaded Prime Minister Netanyahu to give sanctions more time to convince Iran to stop developing nuclear weapons.

President Obama tried to defuse arguments for military action in a telephone call last month with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, the substance of which was confirmed by an Obama administration official who spoke only on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to describe the conversation. While the two men have had an often contentious relationship over Middle East diplomacy, American officials emerged from that exchange persuaded that Mr. Netanyahu was willing to give economic sanctions and other steps time to work.

Netanyahu and Barak will give them time to work - so long as they don't feel Iran is on the verge of entering that 'zone of immunity.' But there is no way that any Israeli government is going to pass on its one chance to stop Iran based on the promises of any other government - and certainly not based on promises from the Obama administration. For those who haven't figured it out yet, in this country, the words "never again" mean "never again will we rely on the nations of the world to come and save us from our enemies." And that means that we will attack when we feel that we need to - and not a moment before or after. Although it is well known that this country stood down in 1973 because Henry Kissinger threatened that the US would not help us if we pre-empted the Egyptians, we are in a much stronger position militarily now than we were then, and the fact that we waited is widely regarded today as a huge blunder. A lot of heads rolled because of that in the Yom Kippur War's aftermath, starting with the Prime Minister, Golda Meir.

The Times also discusses Obama's frustrations with Israel's conception of the 'zone of immunity,' arguing that Israel's view is too narrow.

“ ‘Zone of immunity’ is an ill-defined term,” said a senior Obama administration official, expressing frustration that the Israelis are looking at the problem too narrowly, given the many kinds of pressure being placed on Tehran and the increasing evidence that far tougher sanctions are having an effect.

The Israelis have zeroed in on Iran’s plan to put much of its uranium enrichment near Qum in an underground facility beneath so many layers of granite that even the Pentagon acknowledges it would be out of the reach of its best bunker-busting bombs. Once enrichment activities are under way at Qum, the Israelis argue, Iran could throw out United Nations inspectors and produce bomb-grade fuel without fear the facility would be destroyed.

At its core, the official said, the argument the Israelis make is that once the Iranians get an “impregnable breakout capability” — that is, a place that is protected from a military strike — “it makes no difference whether it will take Iran six months or a year or five years” to fabricate a nuclear weapon, he said.

The Americans have a very different view, according to a second senior official who has discussed the concept with Israelis. He said “there are many other options” to slow Iran’s march to a completed weapon, like shutting off Iran’s oil revenues, taking out facilities that supply centrifuge parts or singling out installations where the Iranians would turn the fuel into a weapon.

Administration officials cite this more complex picture in pressing the Israelis to give the latest sanctions a chance to inflict enough pain on the Iranian leadership to force it back to the negotiating table, or to make the decision that the nuclear program is not worth the cost.

Iran’s currency has plunged, they note; its oil is piling up in storage tanks because it cannot find buyers, and there is growing evidence of fissures among the country’s leadership.

Yes, the sanctions are having an effect alright. But their effect is on the Iranian economy, and not on the nuclear program, which continues to proceed full steam ahead. Iran is not a democracy, and Khameni has no fears of being voted out of office because its economy has gone down the toilet. Look at North Korea. How much did sanctions help there?

Other than South Africa (in which all the big powers cooperated), name me an instance where sanctions convinced a country to change its behavior without militarily changing the regime.

Read the whole thing.

Labels: Barack Hussein Obama, Binyamin Netanyahu, Iran sanctions regime, Iranian nuclear threat