Israel Matzav

Iran getting closer to nukes?

Is Iran getting closer to a nuclear weapon? That depends whether you believe what the President's minions in the mainstream media publish on a Monday morning or whether you believe what they publishe when they're trying to dump news on a Friday afternoon when no one will notice. (By the way, this is one of the oldest tricks in book - I always try to listen to the last newscast on Friday before the Sabbath starts for exactly this reason). Here's what Reuters published on Monday morning.

But, contrary to some Western media reports in the run-up to Friday's International Atomic Energy Agency report, Iran does not yet seem ready to deploy advanced enrichment equipment for large-scale production, despite years of testing.

Instead, the IAEA document showed Iran was preparing to install thousands more centrifuges based on an erratic and outdated design, both in its main enrichment plant at Natanz and in a smaller facility at Fordow buried deep underground.

"It appears that they are still struggling with the advanced centrifuges," said Olli Heinonen, a former chief nuclear inspector for the Vienna-based U.N. agency.

"We do not know whether the reasons for delays are lack of raw materials or design problems," he said.

...

The IAEA, which regularly inspects Iran's declared nuclear sites, has little access to facilities where centrifuges are assembled and the agency's knowledge of possible centrifuge progress is mainly limited to what it can observe at Natanz.

Asked whether Iran may keep more advanced centrifuges at a location which U.N. inspectors were not aware of, an official familiar with the issue said: "That is, of course, the million dollar question."

If Iran eventually succeeded in introducing the newer models for production, it could significantly shorten the time needed to stockpile enriched uranium, which can generate electricity or, if processed much further, nuclear explosions.

But it is unclear whether Tehran, subject to increasingly strict international sanctions, has the means and components to make the more sophisticated machines in bigger numbers.

"Iran has been testing its second-generation models for several years but they do not appear to be ready for full-scale use yet," said analyst Peter Crail of the Arms Control Association, a Washington-based research and advocacy group.

"Iran's ability to mass produce them is also uncertain."

But here's what Reuters reported on Friday afternoon at link dump time.

Iran has sharply stepped up its controversial uranium enrichment drive, the U.N. nuclear agency said on Friday in a report that will further inflame Israeli fears the Islamic Republic is pushing ahead with atomic bomb plans.

The nuclear watchdog also gave details of its mission to Tehran this week where Iran failed to respond to allegations of research relevant to developing nuclear arms - a blow to the possible resumption of diplomatic talks that could help calm worries about a new war in the Middle East.

"The Agency continues to have serious concerns regarding possible military dimensions to Iran's nuclear program," the International Atomic Energy Agency said in a quarterly report about Iran issued to member states.

Iran's increase of work that can have both civilian and military purposes underlines that it has no intention of backing down in a long-running dispute with the West that has sparked fears of war.

...

The confidential IAEA report showed that Iran since last November had tripled monthly output of uranium refined to a level that brings it significantly closer to potential bomb material, an official familiar with the agency's probe said.

"The concern is that they are trying to give the impression that they are putting in the capability that could much more quickly make weapon-grade uranium," nuclear proliferation expert David Albright said.

"This could all be posturing to show further defiance, but unfortunately it does concern many countries about what is Iran planning." Albright added that Iran seemed to have problems developing newer and more efficient centrifuges.

Hmmm.

Labels: Iranian nuclear threat, uranium enrichment

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 1:53 PM