Israel Matzav: US and Israel discussing what will trigger a strike on Iran

Wednesday, December 28, 2011

US and Israel discussing what will trigger a strike on Iran

At the Daily Beast, Eli Lake reports that one of the results of Leon Panetta's foolish remarks earlier this month is that the US and Israel have agreed on a series of trigger events that would bring about a US attack on Iran.

The sensitive work of trying to get both allies on the same page intensified this month. Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak visited Washington last week to go over Iran issues; and the undersecretary of state for political affairs, Wendy Sherman, and a special arms control adviser to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Robert Einhorn, were in Israel last week to discuss Iran as well. Panetta for his own part has revised his tone on the question of Iran’s nuclear program, telling CBS News last week that the United States was prepared to use force against Iran to stop the country from building a nuclear weapon.

The new diplomacy has prompted new conversations between the United States and Israel over what the triggers—called “red lines” in diplomatic parlance—would be to justify a pre-emptive attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Matthew Kroenig, who served as special adviser on Iran to the Office of the Secretary of Defense between July 2010 and July 2011, offered some of the possible “red lines” for a military strike in a recent Foreign Affairs article he wrote. He argued that the U.S should attack Iran’s facilities if Iran expels international nuclear weapons inspectors, begins enriching its stockpiles of uranium to weapons-grade levels of 90 percent, or installs advanced centrifuges at its main uranium-enrichment facility in Qom.

In an interview with The Daily Beast, Kroenig also noted that Iran announced in 2009 that it was set to construct 10 new uranium enrichment sites. “I doubt they are building ten new sites, but I would be surprised if Iran was not racing to build some secret enrichment facilities,” Kroenig said. “Progress on new facilities would be a major factor in our assessment of Iran’s nuclear program and shape all aspects of our policy towards this including the decision to use force.”

Until recently, current and former Obama administration officials would barely broach the topic in public, only hinting vaguely that all options are on the table to stop Iran’s program. Part of the reason for this was that Obama came into office committed to pursuing negotiations with Iran. When the diplomatic approach petered out, the White House began building international and economic pressure on Iran, often in close coordination with Israel.

All the while, secret sabotage initiatives like a computer worm known as Stuxnet that infected the Siemens-made logic boards at the Natanz centrifuge facility in Iran, continued apace. New U.S. estimates say that Stuxnet delayed Iran’s nuclear enrichment work by at most a year, despite earlier estimates that suggested the damage was more extensive.

Last week in a CBS interview, Panetta said Iran’s development of a nuclear weapon is a “red line.” White House advisers have more recently broached the subject more specifically in private conversations with outside experts on the subject.

But Lake notes that Israel is still refusing to commit to notify or seek permission from the United States before launching an attack on Iran. Frankly, that's a good thing. If we had agreed to notify the US, it would not currently be negotiating with us over red lines.

But no one here seriously believes that the Obama administration - which essentially fled from Iraq and is in the process of fleeing from Afghanistan - is going to take military action against Iran. In fact, that's the problem. Because Israel is less capable of taking action than the US, if it does take action, it will need to do so sooner than the US would have to take such action.

Obama has spent three years convincing Israelis and our government that he cannot be trusted. That mistrust cannot be undone overnight. And remarks made this month by Panetta and by US Ambassador to Belgium Howard Gutman have done much to ensure that we are continuing to go in the wrong direction.

Labels: Iranian nuclear threat, Leon Panetta, military option