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Thursday, December 01, 2011

New chairman of US Joint Chiefs of Staff 'uncertain' Israel would warn before attacking Iran

In an interview with Reuters on Wednesday, Martin Dempsey, the Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, expressed uncertainty that Israel would warn the United States before attacking Iran.
The top US military officer told Reuters on Wednesday he did not know whether Israel would alert the United States ahead of time if it decided to take military action against Iran.

General Martin Dempsey, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, also acknowledged differences in perspective between the United States and Israel over the best way to handle Iran and its nuclear program.

He said the United States was convinced that sanctions and diplomatic pressure was the right path to take on Iran, along with "the stated intent not to take any options off the table" - language that leaves open the possibility of future military action.

"I'm not sure the Israelis share our assessment of that. And because they don't and because to them this is an existential threat, I think probably that it's fair to say that our expectations are different right now," Dempsey said in an interview as he flew to Washington from London.

Asked whether he was talking about the differences between Israeli and US expectations over sanctions, or differences in perspective about the future course of events, Dempsey said: "All of the above." He did not elaborate.

He also did not disclose whether he believed Israel was prepared to strike Iran.

...

The sanctions push got added momentum on Wednesday as diplomatic sources said Britain would support an embargo on Iranian oil imports. But Iran sees its nuclear program as a source of power and prestige and it is unclear whether sanctions will alter its cost-benefit analysis.

There has been concern that if world powers cannot nudge Iran into serious nuclear negotiations, then Israel, which feels threatened by Iranian nuclear aspirations, will attack.

Asked directly whether Israel would alert the United States ahead of time if it chose to go forward with military action, Dempsey replied flatly: "I don't know.
A few comments.

If the US wants sanctions to work they have to get serious about them and quickly. That means cutting off all of Iran's oil imports and banning anyone who deals with Iran's central bank from dealing in the US financial markets. Until now, the Obama administration has been anything but serious about sanctions, with the last set of US sanctions - which include a Presidential national security exception - being forced down the President's throat by Representatives Howard Berman (D-Cal) and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Fl). We'll never know if sanctions and diplomatic pressure are the right path to take until we take them seriously.

Second, it is unlikely that the Obama administration will be told anything about an Israeli attack until it is far enough along in progress that Obama cannot warn Iran (yes, we suspect he would do that) and cannot force or 'convince' Israel to turn back. When you turn your relationship with our Prime Minister into a personal vendetta (as Obama has done - contrary to all his claims that he's the best President for Israel evah), sometimes it comes back to bite you.

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