Israel Matzav

Israel better off with 'Palestinian' balance of terror shifting toward Hamas

Jonathan Tobin writes that the balance of terror among the 'Palestinian' terror organizations is shifting toward Hamas.

It must also be pointed out that the balance of terror between the moderate rejectionists of Fatah and the more extreme rejectionists of Hamas is shifting. Hamas’ 2006 coup in which they seized control of Gaza gave them a power base they will never surrender. This Hamasistan is, for all intents and purposes, an independent Palestinian state where they exercise sovereignty and have been able to impose their Islamist beliefs on the area. Given the upside down ethos of Palestinian politics in which anti-Israel violence conveys legitimacy, their continued policy of terror has made them more, not less, popular on the West Bank. The Gilad Shalit ransom deal further enhanced their prestige.

Just as important is the fact that Hamas’ Muslim Brotherhood allies are now major power brokers in Egypt. The overthrow of the Mubarak regime ended Egypt’s cooperation with international efforts to isolate Hamas. That strengthened Hamas’ strategic position and increased its leverage in talks with Abbas who has already, according to previous reports by Abu Toameh, conceded that PA Prime Minister Salam Fayyad — a favorite of Western governments who has sought to improve the economy of the West Bank — will lose his job once the pact goes into effect.

Far from differences over peace with Israel being an impediment to fulfillment of the treaty between the two, the main obstacle appears to be Fatah’s fear of losing an election to Hamas. Given that Abbas’ term of office expired years ago and that he has chosen to continue without benefit of re-election, it’s fair to say that Fatah is not likely to want to face off against Hamas in a scheduled May 2012 ballot.

In the meantime, Hamas continues to make clear they will use their growing power to pursue war against Israel. As Elliott Abrams wrote last week, Hamas Prime Minister Ismail Haniya told a huge rally in Gaza last week:

We affirm that armed resistance is our strategic option and the only way to liberate our land, from the [Mediterranean] sea to the River [Jordan]. God willing, Hamas will lead the people… to the uprising until we liberate Palestine, all of Palestine.

Haniya is planning a tour of the Middle East in a sign of Hamas’ strength. Americans who seek to pressure Israel to accommodate Palestinian demands should take that vow seriously. Unlike Fatah’s supposed acceptance of the peace process, Hamas means what it says and will use any unity pact to help implement their vision of Israel’s destruction.

Israel could actually be better off with Hamas inside the 'Palestinian Authority.' Let me explain why.

It should be clear to all of us (and Tobin hints at it) that Fatah and Hamas ultimately share the same goal - the destruction of Israel, God forbid. They differ only on tactics.

For the last 18 years, Israel has pretended, and has thereby allowed, encouraged and even cajoled the Western world into pretending, that Fatah - in the form of the 'Palestinian Authority' - wants peace with Israel. Even over the course of the last three years, one rarely hears from the Israeli government that Fatah doesn't want peace or that Israel doesn't have a 'peace partner,' despite Fatah's hostile behavior.

On the other hand, Hamas has rightfully been depicted as a bogeyman. Even most of the Europeans recognize Hamas as a terror organization.

Once the two are together in the same 'government,' the government of Israel will have no choice but to refuse to 'negotiate' further with the combined 'Palestinian Authority' and it will have no choice but to tell the world that Fatah has chosen the path of terror. The games and deception will be over.

Despite Obama being in the White House, the United States will also have no choice but to refuse to support the combined entity. Even if Obama wins reelection, God forbid, he is barred by law from supporting a 'Palestinian Authority' that includes Hamas. And regardless of the makeup of the next Congress, very few Representatives and Senators will want to amend a law for the benefit of a terror organization. There will be very little that Obama can do to help the 'Palestinians.'

On the other hand, if Fatah rejects the unity pact, Abu Mazen runs the risk of open civil war, but gains important allies in the West, including Obama, who could push much more strongly for a 'Palestinian state' in a second term where he does not need to worry about reelection. But Abu Mazen has chosen once again to take the opportunity to miss the opportunity.

What could go wrong?

Labels: Hamas-Fatah reconciliation

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 10:32 AM