Israel Matzav: Soccer Dad's Middle East Media Sampler

Saturday, November 12, 2011

Soccer Dad's Middle East Media Sampler

Here's Soccer Dad's Middle East Media Sampler for Friday, November 11.

1) Did you hear the one about?

Yes, this is an actual headline: Pope meets with rabbi, imam and Druse, members of new initiative to promote peace in Holy Land:
Sheikh Muaffaq Tarif, leader of Israel’s Druze community, said he hoped Thursday’s audience would serve as an example to leaders around the world. The Druse religion is a secretive offshoot of Islam; the Druse within Israel are well integrated into society, serving as ministers, lawmakers and army generals.
While the council is represented by most of the main faiths present in the Holy Land, including the Anglican Church, there is no Greek Orthodox representation due to Orthodox-Catholic tensions, council members said.
In addition, the two most significant Islamic groups in Israel aren’t represented: the conservative Southern Islamic Movement and its more radical breakaway stepchild, the Northern Islamic Movement. It’s not clear how large either group is, but between them, they represent a fair indicator of popular religious Muslim sentiment in Israel.
According to Wikipedia, both the Southern and Northern Islamic movements are Israeli equivalents of the Muslim Brotherhood. The tone of the report seems to be that the absence of these groups is a blow to the efforts of the Pope to encourage peace. The truth is that they are not much interested in peace.

2) Down under

Iranian's are fleeing to ... Australia.
The journey for migrants from Iran to Australia is long, expensive and dangerous. Officials said this month that all eight people who drowned when an Australia-bound boat of asylum seekers capsized in Indonesian waters were Iranian.
Unlike Afghans, who until recently made up the largest group of asylum seekers and are mostly rural villagers, the recent Iranian arrivals tend to be well-educated, often secular or Christian and uncomfortable in a politically restrictive, theocratic Muslim state.
“The only reason they are putting their lives in such a huge danger to come through the boats or through the ocean or whatever is just because of the shocking situation in Iran,” said Nicky Danesh, a refugee and women’s rights activist who fled Iran for Europe with her family shortly after the 1979 Islamic revolution.
3) Define "strong"

From Ahead of Vote, Egypt’s Parties and Skepticism Are Growing in the New York Times:
Mr. Kamel is running for the Egyptian Social Democratic Party, among the strongest liberal groups with its mix of Muslims and Coptic Christians, which argues seriously that Egypt might emulate Sweden. The rally played on nostalgia for better days by not starting with the current martial national anthem, but a more romantic version from the 1920s with lines like “I am an Egyptian built by those who built the everlasting pyramids.”
Mr. Kamel noted in an interview that he could not run as a revolutionary. (The 42-year-old architect was pushing the youth envelope, but because Mr. Mubarak was 82, people half his age were deemed youthful.)
“They know that we were somehow pioneers in this, but now is not the time to say that,” he explained. “I have to speak about the new constitution, about education, health care and the environment.”
The conventional wisdom is that Mubarak and his cronies are bad and that whoever replaces them is good. It may not be that simple.

From Muslim Brotherhood Makes Fools of Naive West; Two Smart Egyptians Fear Future by Barry Rubin:
The opposition 21-party Egyptian Bloc has collapsed after only two months of existence. Only three determined secular-oriented parties remain in it: the genuinely liberal Free Egyptians Party (drawing mostly Christian support), the tiny Egyptian Social Democratic Party, and the radical leftist Tagammu Party.
The “Facebook kid” left-liberal Justice Party has formed its own bloc called The Revolution Continues while the Salafis (openly radical Islamists) are trying to combine in the Nour Party.
The three main “liberal” parties–Wafd, Free Egyptians, Justice–are all running against each other. They’ll split the vote and in district after district the Islamists will win.
The military council may not be populated with democrats and altruists, but they are driven by self interest. If the Muslim Brotherhood gains a significant foothold in government, the council will be the only counterweight against the Brotherhood's (eventual) designs for absolute power.

4) Saving face

Ma'an reports (via Daled Amos):
Facing failure in his bid to win full United Nations membership for Palestine, President Mahmoud Abbas may be forced to seek a lesser upgrade of his nation's status in the world body to protect his credibility from attack by Hamas.
Even going for "observer state" rank at the UN will likely expose the Palestinian Authority to more pressure from the United States and Israel, which have imposed financial sanctions in a bid to curb the Abbas administration's diplomatic campaign.
But Abbas has few alternatives if he wants to build on the domestic momentum his statehood drive has generated, compared to paralysis in the peace process upon which he had built his strategy for steering the Palestinian national struggle.
Abbas lost and now he seeks to safe face.

Two months ago the New York Times speculated:
Mr. Abbas’s plan, made public in a television address, follows months of failed American and European efforts to restart Palestinian negotiations with Israel. Some fear that Mr. Abbas’s move will raise expectations among his people, with nothing changing for them on the ground. Combined with alarmed reactions from Israeli settlers, violent showdowns could erupt.
Polls showed that Palestinians preferred negotiations to the UN sideshow. The initiative more likely came from the Palestinians' international cheerleaders, than from the Palestinian "street." My guess is that Abbas doesn't have the popular support to count on violent protests for a political boost. There are costs to overstaying your term in office for (nearly) three years.