Israel Matzav

'It is possible that [Erdogan] is crazy'

Caroline Glick reviews the current state of affairs in Turkey and concludes that things are not as they seem, and that Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan seems oblivious to the bind into which he has gotten himself.

As for the Turkish economy, a closer analysis of its financial data indicates that Turkey's expansive growth is the result of a credit bubble that is about to burst. According to a Citicorp analyst quoted in The Wall Street Journal, domestic demand accounts for all of Turkey's economic growth.

This domestic demand in turn owes to essentially free loans the government showered on the public in the lead-up to the June elections. The loans are financed by government borrowing abroad.

Turkey's current accounts deficit stands at nearly 9 percent of GDP. Greece is engulfed in a debt crisis with a current accounts deficit of 10 percent.

Analysts project that Turkey's deficit will eclipse Greece's within the year. And whereas the EU may end up bailing Greece out of its debt crisis, Turkey has no one to bail it out of its own debt crisis. Consequently, Turkey's entire economic house of cards is likely to come crashing down very rapidly.

It is hard to understand why Erdogan is acting as he is given the poor hand he is holding. It is possible that he is crazy.

It is possible that he is so insulated from criticism that he is unaware of Turkey's economic realities or of the consequences of his aggressive behavior.

It is possible that he is hoping to combine a foreign policy crisis with Turkey's oncoming economic crisis in order to blame the latter on the former.

And it is possible that he believes that US backing gives him immunity to the consequences of his actions.

No matter what stands behind Turkey's actions, it is clear Ankara has overplayed its hand. Its threats against Israel and Cyprus are hollow. Its hopes to be a regional power are faltering.

All the more reason why Israel needs to stand firm against American demands that it prostrate itself before Turkey in a hopeless bid to restore relations to what they once were.

Read the whole thing.

Labels: Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkish economy, Turkish obsession with Israel, Turkish occupation of Cyprus

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 12:41 PM