Israel Matzav

Abu Mazen to offer Hamas 'elections' in January

'Moderate' 'Palestinian' President Mahmoud Abbas Abu Mazen plans to continue implementing Fatah's reconciliation agreement with Hamas by offering to hold elections in January 2012, according to one of his senior aides, Nabil Abu Rudeineh.

"We're suggesting January, because the law requires 90 days notice," says Abu Rudeineh. He adds that the proposal has been extended to Hamas informally but will not be officially on the table until Abbas meets with Hamas officials, probably early next month in Cairo. Both Abbas and Hamas chief Khaled Mashal will be in Egypt this week, but the Fatah chief, whose titles include chairman of the PLO, says the brief visit will be filled by meetings with the military leaders in Cairo. "I don't have time, only one night," Abbas says in an interview. "Maybe next time, by the beginning of next month."

If Hamas agrees, the stage will be set for an overhaul in Palestinian politics, and with it relations with Israel, the United States and a rapidly changing Middle East. The Palestinian Authority will almost certainly have a new president: Abbas, 76, has repeatedly insisted — to TIME as recently as last week — that he will not run for re-election, and has ordained no successor from the rolls of Fatah, the secular movement that long dominated Palestinian politics but is burdened with a reputation for corruption and incompetence. In fact the only previous time Fatah and Hamas faced off in elections, in January 2006 balloting for the Palestinian legislature, Hamas'surprise victory was regarded in no small part as a protest vote against Fatah's unresponsive reign.

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New balloting would also give Palestinian a working legislature for the first time in years. The Palestinian Legislative Council elected in 2006 and seated in Ramallah has not met since the split between Gaza and the West Bank a year later. During that time, Abbas (whose own term actually expired in 2009) has ruled by fiat, while each faction persecuted the other, with Israeli troops arresting some Hamas parliamentarians on the West Bank. In fact, how Israel would respond to a government that includes Hamas is one of the major uncertainties embedded in any new elections. When the reconciliation was announced, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu tried to pour cold water on it, saying Israel would refuse to negotiate with a Palestinian government that included a faction committed to Israel's annihilation, as Hamas' charter states. But that statement may no longer be in effect after the Shalit deal, which was nothing if not a negotiation with Hamas.

I disagree. Israel did not negotiate directly with Hamas over Shalit, and there is NO support in Israel (at least among Jews) for negotiating with Hamas without the three conditions that have always been attached to negotiating with Hamas: Recognizing Israel's 'right to exist,' committing to honor past agreements and renouncing terrorism. Since destroying Israel through terrorism is Hamas' raison d'etre, there is no chance that it will fulfill those three conditions and therefore electing Hamas will be a dead end for the 'peace process.' Like the New York Times, Time Magazine's Karl Vick cannot understand the difference Israelis make between doing what's necessary to release a kidnapped soldier and negotiating with terror organizations over 'final status.'

But Vick does raise an interesting possibility.

Finally, the prospect of early elections casts a new light on Abbas' demand that Netanyahu make good on a promise by his predecessor as prime minister to release still more Palestinian prisoners in the wake of the Shalit deal. Among more than 5,000 Palestinians still in Israeli prisons is one who polls consistently show winning the presidency of the Palestinian Authority — Marwan Barghouti. In some polls, the Fatah activist wins even if he runs from his cell.

I have my doubts that the Israeli public would support a move to release Barghouti to run against Hamas. We don't see a whole lot of difference between them. Barghouti doesn't have the same (undeserved) 'moderate' aura that Abu Mazen has.

Labels: Abu Mazen, Fatah, Hamas, Marwan Barghouti, Palestinian elections 2012

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 12:29 PM