Israel Matzav

'A major escalation'

In an email, Barry Rubin writes that Thursday's terror attacks are a major escalation.

This isn’t just another terrorist attack—it’s a major escalation, a new phase in the Arab-Israeli conflict in two ways. First, it is the bitter fruit of the U.S.-backed downfall of the government of President Husni Mubarak in Egypt. Second, it is probably the first successful al-Qaida attack on Israel. (The Palestinian Popular Resistance Committees, a Gaza-based al-Qaida affiliate is the prime suspect.)

A group of up to 20 terrorists using vehicles fired across the Egypt-Israel border and then crossed into Israeli territory. Their armaments included mortars, and an RPG as well as handguns. The terrorists fired on vehicles—at least two buses and an auto--travelling on Israel’s highway 12 between Beersheva and Eilat. Soldiers engaged the terrorists in a firefight killing three. Several soldiers were wounded.

A mine was reportedly laid to ambush arriving Israeli troops. This is a very sophisticated and complex operations. The terrorists probably originated in the Gaza Strip and travelled through Egypt (whether they received local help there will be a major point of investigation). Israeli sources are reporting at least six Israeli fatalities and at least 15 wounded, though this has not been officially confirmed.

For more than 30 years the Egyptian government ensured peace along the desolate border between the two countries. In the post-Mubarak phase--as I warned back in February--the successor regime is not so committed to the Egypt-Israel peace. Military discipline has slackened and terrorist groups are increasingly operating in the Sinai penninsula. A recent Egyptian operation was intended to clear out terrorists, some of whom are affiliated with al-Qaida, from north Sinai.

The initial phase was marked by virtually free smuggling of arms, weapons, and money into the Gaza Strip for the Hamas regime there. The Mubarak government, though its efforts were imperfect, kept the flow of munitions limited, making it harder for Hamas to renew full-scale warfare against Israel. Now, a new conflict could break out any time as Hamas is better-armed and more confident.

But while the media will no doubt attribute this attack to al-Qaida groups--and that might be accurate--this is far from the only problem. Hamas would no doubt cooperate with cross-border attacks on Israel from Egypt, as would the powerful Muslim Brotherhood which might well provide 30 to 40 percent of the members in the next parliament.

One should also remember the old strategy of the PLO in the late 1960s and in the 1970s: create waves of attacks on Israel's borders, provoking Israeli retaliation and mass enthusiasm for war with Israel; then push Arab states into the war for what is hoped to be a full-scale showdown.

Have no doubt. This is not just an isolated incident but the opening of a new phase.It will get worse. At a minimum, Israel will have to devote a lot more of its limited resources to guarding the Egypt-Israel border. An important question is how decisively will the Egyptian military react and how supportive of the attack will be Egyptian public opinion.

Given U.S. policy, nothing can be expected from Washington except words of dismay. The Egyptian regime will assure everyone that it is committed to the peace treaty and will take strong action. But what will happen when the military hands over power to a parliament with an Islamist-far left majority in a few months? Anyone want to hand over Israel's West Bank border to sovereign Palestinian control?

Here is some background material on events in Egypt and Sinai:
http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/2011/08/11/terrorism-returns-to-egypt-will-sanity-about-islamism-arrive-in-the-west/
http://rubinreports.blogspot.com/2011/03/small-weapons-laden-ship-for-gaza-marks.html
http://rubinreports.blogspot.com/2011/02/egypts-revolution-more-they-reassure-us.html
http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/2011/07/25/nato-allies-egyptian-democracy-become-main-weapons-suppliers-for-hamas/

Israel Radio just reported (5:00) that the car in which four people were killed was hit by an anti-tank missile.

They also reconfirm that there are now 7 people confirmed dead (and not 6 which was the count when Barry sent me that email an hour ago).

UPDATE 5:38 PM

Barry's email now updated and posted here.

Labels: Egyptian-Israeli border, Eilat, Palestinian terrorism

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 5:03 PM