Israel Matzav

Pollsters: Denial ain't just a river in Egypt

Pollsters John McLaughlin and Pat Caddell, Republican and Democrat respectively, have seen their work attacked all week, because they found that Barack Hussein Obama will only get 43% of the Jewish vote in 2012. Alana Goodman reports that McLaughlin and Caddell have come back swinging.

“I probably know more about polling in my little finger, over 40 years, than that person [Washington Post polling manager Peyton Craighill] has ever,” Caddell told me during a conference call with reporters.

On Greg Sargent’s Washington Post blog, Craighill claimed the McLaughlin-Caddell survey was “a clear example of advocacy polling” that did not “represent neutral, independent research.”

...

Caddell and McLaughlin went on to respond to the two major criticisms of their poll: that it allegedly had a skewed sample, and that it asked unfair and leading questions. For example, only 65 percent of their poll respondents said they voted for Obama in 2008, which conflicts with the exit polling data claiming 79 percent of Jews voted for him. Caddell said the sample’s demographics were solid, but it’s common for many people not to admit voting for a president when he becomes less popular.

In a Washington Post blog, Adam Serwer alleged that certain questions in the poll “primed” respondents to view Obama negatively. For example, one question seemed to suggest Obama had called on Israel to return to the 1967 borders, divide Jerusalem, and accept the right of return. According to Serwer, this question may have tainted the rest of the answers from respondents.

McLaughlin denied this, saying the question was asked late in the poll and wouldn’t have had a big impact. Caddell said the question was simply meant to gauge the respondents’ reaction to a particular argument.

Hmmm. Methinks the Obama supporters just might be having a hard time facing the truth, although, there is no assurance that all those Jews will vote Republican rather than stay home.

Labels: Barack Hussein Obama, Campaign 2012, Jewish vote

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 8:23 AM