Israel Matzav

'Palestinians' looking for a way out?

The Guardian reports that the 'Palestinians' may be looking for a way out of the 'statehood' trap (Hat Tip: Daily Alert).

Some Palestinian observers believe the PA leadership, despite its robust statements committing to the UN approach, may also be quietly seeking a way to "climb down the tree".

"The Palestinian leadership has repeatedly indicated that, if the US comes up with an acceptable formula, then they'll go back to the negotiating table," said Mouin Rabbani, an independent Middle East analyst. "At this point they're demanding nothing more than the US putting forward the terms of the Obama speech [a Palestinian state based on the pre-1967 lines with agreed land swaps] and for the Israelis to accept that. But the US has not even been willing or able to insist on that." Apart from other considerations, President Barack Obama is unwilling to risk alienating the pro-Israel lobby before next year's US election.

The Palestinian leadership, which embarked on the UN strategy as a means of increasing its leverage in talks, was thus being forced to pursue an alternative to negotiations, Rabbani said. The consequences could be far-reaching. "This represents the process of a gradual but irreversible disengagement by Palestinians of US-sponsored bilateral negotiations, the basis of which has been Israeli interests."

However, Diana Butto, a former legal adviser to Palestinian negotiators, said she expected a retreat from the UN strategy. "They [the Palestinian leadership] climb up trees and don't know how to get down, except by falling out of the tree."

The PA, she said, had not thought through what it hoped to achieve by pursuing the UN approach. "There is a lack of imagination. Pursuing statehood is just a tactic to strengthen its hand in negotiations." Statehood should, for example, enable the Palestinians to challenge Israeli policies and actions at the international court of justice, she said.

...

A recent opinion survey carried out in Gaza and the West Bank by the respected US pollster Stanley Greenberg found that at the top of the priority list for Palestinians were jobs, healthcare, water shortages and education. Mass protests against Israel, and even pursuing peace negotiations, came way down. Asked to choose, two-thirds favoured diplomatic engagement with Israel over violence.

Round the corner from the Ramallah parking meter, Adel Abu Mariam considered the possible outcomes of the Palestinian bid for statehood while minding his vegetable shop. "If the US has the will to make it successful, it will succeed," he said. "And if it fails, maybe people will be angry for a couple of days, but then life will go on. We have no strength for a new intifada. People know what happened before."

It doesn't sound like this vote is going to be anywhere near as momentous as people thought it would be a few months ago. On the other hand, if Obama is still President on January 20, 2013, all bets are off. If something like this happens in a second Obama term - God forbid - Israel will find itself isolated.

Read the whole thing.

Labels: Palestinian state RIGHT NOW syndrome, unilateral declaration of statehood

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 11:42 PM