Israel Matzav

Obama to release Pollard as a ploy for 2012 elections?

An interesting possibility is raised by Farley Weiss, the second-vice president of the National Council of Young Israel, in an op-ed in the Arizona Republic. Weiss discusses the history of Jews voting overwhelmingly for Democrats in US Presidential elections, and notes that the one time that did not happen was the 1980 election (Hat Tip: Wally E via Arutz Sheva).

It is safe to say that, whomever the GOP nominates in the next presidential election, he or she will be strongly pro-Israel. This has to be of concern to the Obama camp.

The closest example to the present situation might be when Jimmy Carter ran for a second term. He had received 71 percent of the Jewish vote in 1976, but after being perceived by that community as not being a friend of Israel, his support dropped from 45 percent to 39 percent in the 1980 election against Ronald Reagan.

What Weiss doesn't mention is that most of the Jewish vote that was lost by Carter did not go to the Republican candidate, Ronald Reagan. It went to the Independent, John Anderson. American Jews are - for the most part - constitutionally incapable of voting for a Republican. If anything, it is far more likely that Jews will stay home in 2012 than it is that they will vote for a Republican.

Still, Weiss thinks that Obama may wish to shore up his Jewish support, and raises three ways in which Obama might do that.

Now Obama has but three options that might help him to turn Jewish voting patterns in his favor. The first and most obvious is to alter his stated positions vis-a-vis Israel. This is unlikely but for some possible semantic changes.

Second, he could play a much stronger hand against Iran to prevent that country from acquiring nuclear weapons. His calls for sanctions against Iran, already proved ineffective, might be strengthened rhetorically. However, it seems clear a military response is unlikely.

After all, the administration has publicly and privately admonished Israel against considering any such action.

The third possible option, one that would correct an injustice, would be to release Jonathan Pollard from prison. Pollard has been incarcerated for more than 25 years for having passed classified information to an ally - Israel. He committed an offense for which the average sentence is two to four years.

Could Pollard be released as a ploy for Jewish support in the 2012 elections? I think the answer is yes, but not to gain the Jewish vote. Quite bluntly, I don't believe that the Jewish vote matters in US Presidential elections. While Jews are 'concentrated in key states,' those states are overwhelmingly Blue (with the exception of Florida and Ohio), and 'punishing' Obama would mean that he gets 60% of the Jewish vote rather than 80%.

But what does matter is Jewish money. Many Jewish donors have become very uncomfortable with Obama, largely because of his treatment of Israel, as I reported with respect to Haim Saban two weeks ago. While the Saban story is now being walked back (Hat Tip: Memeorandum), there are other Jewish donors who have been reported to be uncomfortable with Obama over his treatment of Israel. Releasing Pollard may be a way of getting those Jewish donors back on board.

If I am right, Pollard's release would not come as an 'October surprise' in 2012 (as Weiss' analysis would seemingly dictate). It would be more likely to come somewhere between the opening of the 2012 primaries and the Democratic National Convention in August. And Pollard, more than anyone else, would undoubtedly resent being used that way. If it does happen, I would hope that Pollard will be allowed to speak out from the safety of Israel. What a cynical way to use a man who has suffered so much.

Labels: Barack Hussein Obama, Campaign 2012, Jewish vote, Jonathan Pollard

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 2:17 AM