If there isn't a no-fly zone, we'll just blame the Joooz
Former Defense Department official Dov Zakheim advocates for a no-fly zone over Libya, and reminds us of the likely consequences if one is not imposed. Ultimately, if Libya's bloodbath continues, as no doubt it will, pressure will mount for military action that goes well beyond a no-fly zone. And if Qaddafi then falls, no matter who succeeds him. The United States will once again be blamed for bring about "regime change." The Arabs will resent U.S. intervention and they will find a way to blame Israel for it all. In due course, American flags will once again be burned on the Arab "street" throughout the region.What could go wrong?
It would be so much more advantageous to long-term U.S. interests if Washington were to mount a no-fly zone operation now -- including knocking out Libya's air defenses -- so that more members of Libya's armed forces will be encouraged to defect from Qaddafi, without the United States having to intervene on the ground. The alternative, which the administration continues to prefer, is to sit back and let events dictate what the United States should do. This is not policy; it is hand-wringing of the worst sort.
Labels: Barack Obama, Libyan no-fly zone
posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 5:16 AM
4 Comments:
A "No fly zone" was imposed over Iraq for 12 years with no effect on the military or political reality on the ground at all, and there is absolutely no reason to believe it will have any effect on the reality on the ground in Libya either. Not to mention the fact that to enforce it you have to first suppress, meaning bomb the crap out of, all the air defenses in the country. Which knowing Qadaffi have been positioned beside hospitals and public schools etc. as per standard Arab operating procedure. The main effect of attempting to enforce a no fly zone will be to increase civilian casualities far beyond what the civil war itself would cause, while having virtually no meaningful effect on the strength of Qadaffi's forces.
It may seem unfortunate but any attempt at any form of military intervention from the outside, be it the US, UN, NATO or whoever, can only make matters far worse. This is not our fight, and we should let the Libyans settle it themselves, as brutal and cruel as it may be. If we intervene in any way besides humanitarian aid this will make Iraq look like a cake walk.
And rest assured the west as a whole will be despised by the rest of the world for whatever we do, staying absolutely out of it is the only rational and sane option. Particularly since we have no real geo-political or economic interests in the country.
A "No fly zone" was imposed over Iraq for 12 years with no effect on the military or political reality on the ground at all, and there is absolutely no reason to believe it will have any effect on the reality on the ground in Libya either. Not to mention the fact that to enforce it you have to first suppress, meaning bomb the crap out of, all the air defenses in the country. Which knowing Qadaffi have been positioned beside hospitals and public schools etc. as per standard Arab operating procedure. The main effect of attempting to enforce a no fly zone will be to increase civilian casualities far beyond what the civil war itself would cause, while having virtually no meaningful effect on the strength of Qadaffi's forces.
It may seem unfortunate but any attempt at any form of military intervention from the outside, be it the US, UN, NATO or whoever, can only make matters far worse. This is not our fight, and we should let the Libyans settle it themselves, as brutal and cruel as it may be. If we intervene in any way besides humanitarian aid this will make Iraq look like a cake walk.
And rest assured the west as a whole will be despised by the rest of the world for whatever we do, staying absolutely out of it is the only rational and sane option. Particularly since we have no real geo-political or economic interests in the country.
Look, the Magnificent O only said "Gaddaffi must go" because it looked like the cross-dressing saladin was all but out the door. The plan was to rush at the head of the passing parade to claim credit or, who knows, to toss out a verbal incantation and hope it magically provided the final push by sheer force of oration. The last thing on O's mind was to set a marker on the sand that he would actually have to stand behind and be responsible for implementing. Heaven forbid. Hence the endless excuses for not implementing a no-fly zone unless Nato, China, Russia, the Aleuts, and a majority of deceased Presidents agree by seance.
Carl - Debbie Schlussel is of the view America should stay out. The radical Islamists in Libya won't appreciate America for helping them come to power and if they do come to power they will still hate America.
Democracy has been a disaster every place its been tried in the Middle East and its brought extremists to power. The kind of people free elections would bring to power in Libya are not going to be liberal democrats.
The West should arm both sides and let them wear each other down like it did with Iraq and Iran in the 1980s. We have no interest in either side winning their civil war.
Post a Comment
<< Home