Israel Matzav

Gadhafi gave orders to sabotage oil reserves?

Time Magazine is reporting that Libyan dictator Muammar Gadhafi has ordered his security forces to sabotage the country's oil installations.

There's been virtually no reliable information coming out of Tripoli, but a source close to the Gaddafi regime I did manage to get hold of told me the already terrible situation in Libya will get much worse. Among other things, Gaddafi has ordered security services to start sabotaging oil facilities. They will start by blowing up several oil pipelines, cutting off flow to Mediterranean ports. The sabotage, according to the insider, is meant to serve as a message to Libya's rebellious tribes: It's either me or chaos.

Two weeks ago this same man had told me the uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt would never touch Libya. Gaddafi, he said, had a tight lock on all of the major tribes, the same ones that have kept him in power for the past 41 years. The man of course turned out to be wrong, and everything he now has to say about Gaddafi's intentions needs to be taken in that context.

The source went on and told me that Gaddafi's desperation has a lot to with the fact that he now can only count on the loyalty of his tribe, the Qadhadhfa. And as for the army, as of Monday he only has the loyalty of approximately 5,000 troops. They are his elite forces, the officers all handpicked. Among them is the unit commanded by his second youngest son Khamis, the 32nd Brigade. (The total strength of the regular Libyan army is 45,000.)

My Libyan source said that Gaddafi has told people around him that he knows he cannot retake Libya with the forces he has. But what he can do is make the rebellious tribes and army officers regret their disloyalty, turning Libya into another Somalia. "I have the money and arms to fight for a long time," Gaddafi reportedly said.

As part of the same plan to turn the tables, Gaddafi ordered the release from prison of the country's Islamic militant prisoners, hoping they will act on their own to sow chaos across Libya. Gaddafi envisages them attacking foreigners and rebellious tribes. Couple that with a shortage of food supplies, and any chance for the rebels to replace Gaddafi will be remote.

This highlights one of the key points that most Westerners don't understand about the Middle East. With the exceptions of Egypt and Israel, there's no true nationalism and no sense of belonging to a country. There's only a sense of belonging to a tribe and the only loyalty - for generations - is to a tribe. Libya, like Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Syria and other countries, is a creation of Western mapmakers. It commands no nationalist loyalty. There's no 'melting pot,' and little true integration.

Add to that the fact that many of these people are uneducated and are fierce believers in militant Islam, and you have a real recipe for disaster.

Anyone who watched Gadhafi's hour-long rant on Tuesday night knows that this story is entirely plausible. (And please recall that Saddam Hussein tried to do the same thing during Gulf War I until he realized that Bush I wasn't going to throw him out).

What could go wrong?

Labels: George H. W. Bush, Muammar Gaddafi, Saddam Hussein, tribalism

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 10:09 AM