Israel Matzav

Ghajar evacuation meant to press Hezbullah to disarm

In the comments, in my last post about Ghajar, someone suggested that the withdrawal from Ghajar was meant to pressure Hezbullah. And in fact, that's exactly what the JPost says, after quoting Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman.

UNFIL political adviser Milos Strugar told The Jerusalem Post that according to UN resolution 1701, Israel was suppose to withdraw from all Lebanese territory, and had done so, with the exception of the northern part of Ghajar.

He said that in UNIFIL,"We have been actively engaged with all the parties on how to facilitate the withdrawal. Recently we forwarded some ideas for the withdrawal to Israel." An Israeli withdrawal could set the stage for more tension between Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri's Western-backed political bloc and its Shiite Hizbullah rivals, who have extended their political influence in Hariri's shaky coalition government and maintain the country's strongest military arsenal.

Hariri's allies would likely use the pullout to argue that Hezbollah no longer needs its weapons and that disputed land can be regained with the help of the international community instead. Hizbullah, which refuses to disarm, is already saying its military power would be to thank for any Israeli pullout.

Sorry folks, but this isn't going to get Hezbullah to lay down its arms. As implied above, Hezbullah will instead take credit for having forced Israel out of Ghajar, as is already happening.

Hizbullah on Sunday positioned itself to claim victory for any pullout.

"If the withdrawal happens, it (Israel) won't be doing it for free but because of fear of the resistance and Lebanon's strength through the resistance," Hizbullah legislator Nawar Saheli told The Associated Press in Beirut.

Moreover, Hezbullah has plenty of other excuses for keeping arms aside from Ghajar. There's Shaba Farms and there are the seven former Shiite villages that are now in Israel. Not to mention Israel itself.

No, it's not about Ghajar, and Israel withdrawing from Ghajar won't make Hezbullah give up its arms. We've already done the 'unilateral withdrawal' thing twice before - Lebanon in 2000 and Gaza and Northern Samaria in 2005. Not only didn't it bring peace, it brought war. Now, Netanyahu and Lieberman want to do it again.

What could go wrong?

Labels: Ghajar, Hezbullah, seven former Shiite villages, Shaba Farms, unilateral withdrawal

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 6:50 AM