Israel Matzav

Obama administration convinced Russia not to sell S-300 to Iran

Over the holiday, Russia announced (again) that it has decided not to sell the S-300 anti-missile defense system to Iran. The S-300 may be the best anti-missile defense system on the market, and its possession by Iran would immeasurably complicate any strike against its nuclear assets by Israel or the United States. Foreign Policy's Josh Rogin reports that the Obama administration played a major role in convincing Russia not to go through with the sale.

The issue was raised during Medvedev's visit to Washington in July. Two weeks ago, it was discussed again during a trip to Russia by NSC Senior Director for Russia Michael McFaul and Undersecretary of State Bill Burns. Defense Secretary Robert Gates pressed Russian Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov on the issue during his visit to Washington last week (along with still lingering potential Russian missile sales to Syria). And Secretary of State Hillary Clinton met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly on the day the announcement was made.

As for why the Russians finally decided to scuttle the arms deal after years of lobbying by Washington, the official speculated that Moscow now has something it needs -- and that it finally has faith that the U.S. is willing to help. Russia is jockeying for as much U.S. support as possible for their upcoming bid to join the World Trade Organization (WTO), and Moscow is planning to finalize its bid this year.

"Momentum on WTO accession is what they see as they next big negotiations with us. We're right in the middle of that. That's asymmetric because that's more in their interest than ours. I think we have to deliver on that," the official said.

But the Obama administration isn't asking Russia for favors or giving them out in return, the official explained. The idea is to make the U.S.-Russia relationship more valuable to the Russians than their relationship with Iran, and both countries should act in their own interests.

"The objective is not actually to develop a good relationship with Russia. The goal here is to advance our national security and economic interests and to promote universal values," the official said.

Experts, however, are divided on exactly what the Russian announcement means about the success of the reset policy, considering that Russia continues to aid Iran in other ways and remains at odds with the West about their occupation of Georgia.

What's clear is that the U.S. and Russia are now cooperating on key issues such as Iran more than before and that Obama team made the Iran weapons sales a priority in its dealings with Russia. What pushed Russia over the edge in this case was a mix of their desire for further concessions from the United States and a deteriorating relationship with Iran. Tehran protested the Russian announcement; their top military commander called the decision "illogical" because he said it was not required under U.N. Security Council Resolution 1929.

Read the whole thing.

While this is a positive development, the bottom line is that the Russians themselves have reserved the right to reverse the decision and sell the S-300 to Iran, so it's far too early to chalk this up as a re-set success, as the Obama administration is trying to do. And then there's the sale to Syria....

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 11:24 AM