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Sunday, August 01, 2010

Obama pressuring Abu Mazen over direct talks

Numerous media reports throughout the weekend indicate that President Obama has been putting real pressure on 'moderate' 'Palestinian' President Mahmoud Abbas Abu Mazen to come to the table and conduct 'peace talks.' Laura Rozen reports:
President Barack Obama has sent a letter to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas urging that he agree to go into direct talks with the Israelis next month, and warning that if he doesn’t, relations with the United States would be affected, Arabic newspaper Al Hayat and Israeli newspaper Ma'ariv are reporting.

The White House declined to comment Saturday on the reports of an Obama letter or confirm its existence.

Ma'ariv sourced confirmation of the letter to the head of the Palestinian negotiating team, Saab Erekat, while Al Hayat cited in detail from what it said was a leaked draft of the letter.

Among the letter's 16 points, the papers said, Obama pledged that if Abbas agreed to go into direct talks, there would be an extension of a partial Israeli West Bank settlement freeze currently due to expire in September.

"It is time to go to direct negotiations with Israel," the letter states, according to Al Hayat. "Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is ready to move to direct negotiations in the wake of the meeting held with him."

The letter warns that if Abbas refuses to enter direct talks next month, it will have implications on the relationship between the United States and the Palestinian Authority, and undermine trust in Abbas, the papers state.

Points 15 and 16 concern Israeli obligations and future confidence-building steps, the paper states.
Rozen reports that the Obama administration is trying to strike a balance: Not to be seen as too overbearing on the 'Palestinians' and not disclosing confidential understandings reached with Prime Minister Netanyahu (presumably regarding extension of the 'settlement freeze').

The US has denied threatening to cut relations with the 'Palestinian Authority,' a claim advanced by Hanan Ashrawi in an interview with al-Quds al-Arabi over the weekend.

Meanwhile, the 'Palestinian Authority' has denied giving up on its preconditions to holding direct talks, and chief 'Palestinian' negotiator bottle washer has denied that talks will resume after Ramadamadan, which starts next week and ends at approximately the same time as the Jewish New Year this year. And the always helpful Ban Ki-Moon urged Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak over the weekend to extend the freeze to Jerusalem.

Where is this heading? Obama is trying to get the 'Palestinians' to miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity. He is doing all he can to get them to the table, because he is deeply committed to them, and he knows that if they don't come to the table now, he may not be able to get things going again after the November elections when he will need to worry about his own political survival in 2012. Obama has promised the 'Palestinians' that if they come to the table, Prime Minister Netanyahu will extend the 'settlement freeze' for some period of time (whether de facto or de jure) and will extend it to 'east Jerusalem' de facto (it won't be announced). Abu Mazen is having difficulty overcoming his desire to humiliate Netanyahu, and so far at least, is insisting on everything in writing from Israel. He won't get it. Netanyahu would commit political suicide if he put the sentence with Obama's promise in writing.

In return, Netanyahu is getting funding for anti-missile programs and possibly some freedom of action, or vague commitment to American action, on Iran.

And the 'Palestinians' have a new 'peace proposal,' but we'll get to that in another post.

What could go wrong?

1 Comments:

At 12:20 AM, Blogger NormanF said...

Netanyahu was quoted as saying direct talks will happen later this month but I quite don't believe it. Its always possible the Palestinians could change their mind but even if they do show up, no one really expects direct talks to be any more successful than the proximity ones have been.

The Palestinians want in writing a committed Israel surrender and they're not going to get it. After climbing all the up the tree, its hard to see how they manage to get off it without losing face. And keeping face is more important to Abu Bluff than heeding the American President's pleas to help him get tougher on Israel.

Heh

 

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