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Friday, May 07, 2010

'Our friends the Saudis': Not worried about Iran, unwilling to help in the 'peace process'

Remove Formatting from selectionIf this expert (see his qualifications in the article) is correct, then 'our friends the Saudis' have no fear of the military power of a nuclear Iran, and no interest in helping to convince Israel that the Arab states want peace (which they don't - the Arab states will never willingly accept a Jewish state in their midst).
The Saudis see Iranian power in more political than military terms. It is Iranian political influence in Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen and Palestine that worries them, not the prospect of the use of Iranian military force. They see the Iranian threat to the Gulf states as centered in Iran's power to mobilize support among Shi'a sympathizers in those states, not in the prospect of an Iranian missile attack or amphibious landing on the Arab shore of the Gulf. (The revelation by the Kuwaiti newpaper al-Qabas a few days ago of the arrest in Kuwait of an alleged Iranian ‘terrorist' cell is the kind of evidence Saudis point to of the nature of the Iranian threat.) They do not worry that much about a nuclear Iran as a military threat, but rather worry that nuclear acquisition will make Tehran more ambitious in terms of pushing for political influence in the region and that nuclear weapons will make Iran seem a more attractive and powerful ally for sub-state groups throughout the Arab world.

I think that the Saudi perspective on Iranian regional power is much more accurate than ours. It is not Iranian military power that gives Iran regional influence but rather Iran's political links to powerful actors in states where the central government is weak. Those links are based on a mixture of shared ideology, sectarian affiliation, common antipathy to the U.S. and Israel, and short-term self-interests, in different degrees in different cases. But none of those relations are based on Iranian military power. I doubt that nuclear weapons will make that much difference, one way or another, in Iran's regional influence, because nuclear weapons will not change the nature of Iran's relations with its sub-state allies in the Arab world.

The nascent Saudi debate on this question has not generated much in the way of answers to how to deal with Iranian power. There is something of a consensus that Riyadh has forfeited the chance to play a greater role in Iraq through passivity, and one can see the beginnings of a more active Saudi policy there now (backing Allawi, receiving an delegation from the Sadrist movement since the election). While King Abdallah has a real personal antipathy toward dealing with Nouri al-Maliki, it is possible that after that even that obstacle will be overcome as the current maneuverings over the creation of a new Iraqi government continue. But American policy-makers should be aware that, while Riyadh shares their perspective that Iran needs to be contained, the Saudis are taking a very different view of the nature of the Iranian challenge than is ascendant in Washington.

So, what does this mean for the American debate on Iran? First, it is not clear just what position the Saudi government would take on an American military attack on Iran. It is likely that Riyadh would want the benefits of such an attack -- setting back the Iranian nuclear program, however briefly -- without taking any public responsibility for the American action. Washington should not count on any Saudi cooperation on such a plan that might become public. And American policy-makers should know that a more active Saudi policy on the Arab-Israeli conflict, if it were influenced by these Saudi "neo-conservatives," might not be completely supportive of American efforts to enlist Arab states in "confidence building measures" toward Israel. Saudi Arabia will judge those kinds of suggestions from a hard-headed "realist" perspective.
I don't buy the part of this analysis that deals with Iran. There's too much evidence to the contrary - that the Saudis do fear a nuclear Iran. And well they should since the Sunni's (Saudi Arabia) and the Shia (Iran) have hated each other for centuries. Not to mention the fact that Iran has ties to al-Qaeda....

3 Comments:

At 7:42 PM, Blogger NormanF said...

What the Saudis really lack confidence in is in America's ability to defend them... not surprising when they see it throw Israel under the bus and make nice with Iran. Now if you were Saudi, why would you want to give Obama the time of day?

But peace will break out in the Middle East any time now...

 
At 7:53 PM, Blogger nomatter said...

In essence Carl the whole world fears a nuclear Iran.
So what? We see fear and the reality of what to do with that fear amounts to nothing by the inaction of of the world toward Iran.

Our good friends in the House of Saud are expert poker players. Having said that, expect nothing from those who double-deal!

Iran will never nuke Saudi Arabia but they will ultimately control them with their nukes. Underneath the robes of our good friends the Saudi's one might find a few pairs of soiled undies.

They know what we do but eventually the days of having it both ways are numbered. Face it every leader(i say that loosely) arab,muslim,islamist in the ME and the country which they represent amount to dog meat. They are all terrorist enablers and sponsors of jihad because the book tells them so. Live by the sword, die by it!! Reality is, when comes to being real honest to goodness statesmen, forget it. They are all lost causes.

We call the Saudi's good friends and allies. (Just like all the rest of their buddies whom we use the world ally a little to easily..and with a straight face) I just laugh because the Saudi's own us just like soon Iran will own them.

I even hate to write this, but I believe the chances of Iran nuking Israel is very great for it will serve as a show of strength, to show Iran's neighbors what's in store for them if they don't march in line. Like a house of cards each ME country will become "occupied by Iran."

(of course what the proxies of Iran will do before that as you posted on another thread Carl, will be to warn us!)

 
At 10:09 PM, Blogger Unknown said...

Why should we have to guess what the Saudis really want. Israel should team up with North Korea knock off Iran and invade Saudia Arabia and Kuwait. Then they can split the oil revenues. Nobody would lift a finger especially if we keep the oil flowing and cut the price 20 percent.
If Lebanon and Gaza get invovled they get sent back to the stoneage.

The world thinks were murderers anyway - we should at least do it and get the benefit for it.

All were doing now is waiting for Iran to drop the bomb on us. And no one will lift a finger.

 

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