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Tuesday, May 18, 2010

No justification to stop Israel from striking Iran

Jonathan Tobin writes that if the Obama administration accepts the nuclear deal worked out among Iran, Brazil and Turkey, President Obumbler will be giving Iran another year to work on nuclear weapons development and will have no justification (as if he has any right now, but that's a separate issue) to stop Israel from striking Iran.
For the past few months, we’ve heard a great deal about how the Obami have drawn conclusions about the way the Iranians reacted to Washington’s yearlong quest for “engagement.” We’ve been given to understand that the administration wasn’t going to be fooled any longer and was preparing to get tough with the Iranians. Yet the suspicion that the co-sponsorship of this latest Iranian effort to evade sanctions by Turkey and Brazil will deter a stiff American response hangs over all speculation about the next step.

As Michael Slackman writes in the New York Times:
Mr. Obama now faces a vexing choice. If he walks away from this deal, it will look like he is rejecting an agreement similar to one he was willing to sign eight months ago. But if he accepts it, many of the urgent issues he has said will have to be resolved with Iran in coming months — mostly over suspected weapons work — will be put on hold for a year or more. Many American officials believe that is Iran’s most pressing goal.
That’s the bottom line for Iran. If the United States accepts this deal, it will mean giving Iran another year’s grace to work toward its goal of nuclear capability. That will be added to the full year Iran gained from Obama’s feckless engagement and the months wasted dithering about sanctions. After this next year we will have given them, we can expect only another attempt at dissimulation to gain Iran’s program as much time as it needs. In other words, despite the avowed determination by both President Obama and Secretary of State Clinton that they will not allow Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon, this process they have helped create will lead inevitably to just that result.

That’s why if Washington really is serious about stopping Iran’s nuclear program, the only possible response to this deal is all-out opposition by the United States and its allies. If not, then the president will be acquiescing to a process by which Iran has the ability to indefinitely stall an international response. That is to say that America’s policy will be, like it or not, to simply give Iran a pass and move on to other concerns. And from there it is a very short step to acknowledging that the United States is prepared to live with the Islamist regime in Tehran having a nuclear bomb. That will mean that the only possible hope for a check on Tehran will be the possibility of an Israeli military strike to stave off the existential threat to the Jewish state. That’s a scenario that we know the administration is desperate to avoid. But if they are prepared to meekly accept the Turkish agreement, what arguments can they possibly muster to persuade the Israelis to refrain from defending themselves?
I'm not sure the administration is desperate to avoid it all. In fact, that is precisely the problem.

But other than that, he's got it right. And the 'argument' they will muster to stop Israel will not be an argument but a threat not to resupply the Jewish state in the event that it attacks Iran and is attacked by Hamas, Hezbullah and Syria in return.

What could go wrong?

3 Comments:

At 4:06 PM, Blogger Andre (Canada) said...

Again, another pundit who uses a completely wrong premise as the basis for his argument. Isn't clear by now that Obama WANTS Iran to get nuclear weapons? Is there any meaningful act that anyone can point to which would show that Obama is really and truly opposed to this? Pious words from Obama and Hillary do not count. What really matters is what they have done or not done over the last 16 months. They have not imposed any sanction, they have not increased the pressure on Iranian ship in the straight of Hormuz, they have not increased their naval presence in the area, they have not massed troops at the border with Iran, they have actually decreased the supply of the offensive weapons that Israel would need to attack Iran, etc...
There is not a single shred of evidence that Obama is bothered the least bit by Iran going nuclear. In fact, I think that he relishes this thought as it is the game changer that, he believes, will push Israel to have no choice but to accept a 2-state solution, leading soon to a 1-Islamic state solution. This is the "final solution" that Obama has in mind and the plan is unfolding perfectly.

 
At 7:12 PM, Blogger NormanF said...

Israel is going to have to resupply itself. Its time for the IDF and IMI to get moving to solve the problem.

 
At 11:53 PM, Blogger Augusto Sousa said...

Having so many problems imposed on someone we get fed up and leave everything and lose everything but after that what they destroyed is our name, mothers and fathers name. If to return twenty years after about their problems or who they are that you no longer recognize and don't care to. I always imagine and until i die the only way to have respect is for each to have a gun. Something, why i like American way. That i've met in the past seem to give me this impression of two way force (not three against one) of respect of this fact and they have the guns. It is too late now and i just don't care and will run away again when I have to. Since not having a gun i would have to. Once you start imposing people to do things and having their last name tarnished by controling someone in stead of respecting their affects of not just you but your families last name (Isreal). It is the best way to settle it. A whore who tell lies about her kids and fathers last name. Isreal needs to be one country Isreal. If, and if iran interferes in any way Isreal will exist for Isreal and it's people because in this world everything is divided in to two ways like male and female.
Like this guy above who is suggesting that America wants Iran to have weapon may pave the way for Isreal to put up the Iron Curtain.

 

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