The dumbest country in the Middle East
Who wins the prize as the dumbest country in the Middle East? The answer should be obvious. Despite all the Syrian bravado about Hezbollah's strong showing against Israel in the 2006 Lebanon war, surely Bashar al-Assad knows that his creaking Soviet weaponry would fare badly in any conflagration -- and that his presidential suite is well within the range of Israel's F-15s. For all the figures you read in the press about the size of Syria's military and its vast arsenal of tanks, the country is essentially a tin-pot dictatorship with little ability to project power beyond Lebanon, where for decades it has dominated its smaller neighbor's domestic affairs.Indeed.
If you think in regional terms, the (alleged) move [shipping scuds to Hezbullah. CiJ] makes marginally more sense. Iran, Syria's ally and patron, is looking to show the West that any strike on its nuclear facilities would be extremely costly for the United States and its allies. With pressure escalating, it's not hard to imagine that the powers that be in Iran leaned on Bashar to lend a helping hand next door. (Syria expert Andrew Tabler offers some other plausible motives here.)
The insane thing about all this is that Syria would be much better off by joining the pro-Western camp. It could get the Golan Heights back, get the sanctions lifted, and attract foreign assistance and investment -- while fending off pressure to open its deeply authoritarian system, just as Egypt has. It could reap billions in tourism revenue, thanks to its incredible archaeological and cultural riches. And it could finally bury the hatchet with other Arab states, which have long been frustrated by Syria's close ties to Iran, its support for militant groups, its meddling in Lebanon, and its intransigence on all things Israel.
There are responses from Syria here.
posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 11:52 AM
3 Comments:
If Israel gave up the Golan and its water to water-starving Syria, as the Hounshell article suggests, then Israel would certainly claim the title of dumbest nation in the Middle East.
Baby Assad and his Alawites know any reform would benefit the dominant Sunnis at their expense so their alliance with the heterodox Shia makes perfect sense from their standpoint. It legitimates their Islamist credentials and fends off the need for reforms at home - and part of delaying that indefinitely is the confrontation with Israel. Having to make peace with Israel would throw the regime's survival into question. The Egyptian Mubarak dictatorship holds the same faith as other Egyptians. Syria's minority Alawites do not and that itself is justification enough for the Assad regime's radical character.
"Syria would be much better off by joining the pro-Western camp. It could get the Golan Heights back, get the sanctions lifted, and attract foreign assistance and investment "
What BS!
They get nothing back. Ever heard of right by conquest?
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