Israel Matzav

Where is the red line on Iran?

No, this post isn't about President Obama's red line on Iran - we already know he doesn't have one. It's about Prime Minister Netanyahu's red line. He has one, but no one knows yet where it is.

The truth is that Iran has already crossed the first potential red line and is now able to produce a nuclear weapon within a few months. Israel must attack now or gamble that sanctions will be placed on Iran that deter or stop it from making a bomb, and that if a decision to make a bomb is made, Israel’s intelligence is good enough to detect it with enough time for it to quickly stop Iran.

As the significance of Iran’s technical achievements becomes realized by the Israelis and the West in general, expect the argument to shift. It will be repeatedly stated that even if Iran develops a bomb, it lacks the ability to fit it onto a warhead for effective delivery. But waiting for this red line to be approached is another unwise gamble.

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Ironically, as I’ve written before, it is very possible that the Iranians are deliberately trying to cross that red line so as to provoke a limited strike that gives them an excuse to pull out of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and announce that they will begin building nukes. For Israel, it’s a Catch-22 of the deadliest kind and it is the hardest decision any leader of that country has had to make.

The only way to prevent this horrid scenario from being actualized is for the Obama administration to take tough measures as suggested by members of Congress. Jonathan Schanzer and Mark Dubowitz point out that the threat of sanctions on Iran’s energy sector is already causing banks and major companies to back out of investing in Iran. The Chinese are trying to come to the rescue by building refineries, but those will take years to finish. Senators McCain and Lieberman have proposed legislation forcing the president to publish a list of human rights violators in Iran so they can be personally sanctioned. Senators Brownback and Cornyn have presented the Iran Democratic Transition Act that paves the way to support the democratic opposition and actively support a transitional government. These bills must be immediately passed and enforced.

The Israelis are preparing for the worst. It is no coincidence that Israel revealed a fleet of unmanned aerial drones that can fly for an entire day and reach Iran shortly following the regime’s latest announcement. Only immediate, concrete, aggressive action can convince the Israelis to wait. Should such a strike commence, the international outcry against Israel will be misplaced. It will be the lack of action by the U.S. and its allies that, more than anyone aside from Ahmadinejad and Khamanei, will have forced Israel’s hand.

Read it all. It sounds like the red line is fast approaching.

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 4:33 AM