Israel Matzav

New NIE on Iran delayed

At the beginning of the week, I reported that an updated National Intelligence Estimate on Iran was due out in the next couple of weeks. Now, it seems that estimate is going to be delayed.

The reasons behind the latest delay are murky; two of the officials said the precise reasons for the latest delay are classified. But it is likely that the various intel agencies are still reviewing, revising, and debating the document to reach an agreement about what it should say. In the past, this has been a long and sometimes contentious process. The final product is supposed to reflect the consensus view of U.S. intelligence as a whole, though dissents often pepper the footnotes.

Laura Rozen adds:

But in some ways the report update seems a bit of domestic political kabuki, since that judgement is clearly not informing the Obama adminitration's thinking. The U.S., as well as Russia, France, the UK and the International Atomic Energy Agency board of governors have rebuked Iran for failing to disclose a secret enrichment facility in Qom under construction since 2006. U.S. officials have previously indicated they believe Iran is hiding nuclear trigger research it has conducted. A report earlier this month by the IAEA's Director General Yukiya Amano says Iran is not fully cooperating with the Agency and the Agency can therefore not be sure that Iran's nuclear program is for purely peaceful purposes.

In other words, the new report doesn't really matter. Well, here is something that would make it matter: How about a clear statement regarding responsibility for the previous report, which essentially took the military option out of the hands of the Bush administration for the last year of Bush's term.

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 6:56 AM