Israel Matzav

Terror attack on US in next 3-6 months 'certain'

While Dennis Blair told the Senate on Tuesday that Hezbullah is not a threat to the United States, he also said that a terror attack against the US in the next 3-6 months is 'certain.'

Adm. Blair testified that al Qaeda is eyeing targets the group in the past attempted to attack, including commercial jets and financial institutions in New York City, and the Washington Metro system.

Mr. Blair's testimony also focused on al Qaeda's continuing efforts to obtain biological, chemical and nuclear weapons, but he said he would only discuss details in a closed session.

Following Mr. Blair's testimony, CIA Director Panetta pointed out that the biggest problem for America's spies is tracking the "lone wolf" operative who has no background in terrorism.

You mean the kind of 'lone wolf' who might have arrived in the US as an illegal immigrant from Mexico?

And then there was his assessment on Iran:

On Iran, Mr. Blair said the intelligence community believed that Iran was preparing the groundwork for building nuclear weapons, but that Tehran had made no political decision to build the arms. Despite political turmoil that has brought hundreds of thousands of protesters into the streets since the June 12 presidential elections, Iran's decision-making process would remain the same, he said.

Overall, Mr. Blair said he gave he protesters little chance for success. "Strengthened conservative control will limit opportunities for reformers to participate in politics or organize opposition," he stated. "The regime will work to marginalize opposition elites, disrupt or intimidate efforts to organize dissent and use force to put down unrest."

The U.S. intelligence community in the past failed to predict political events in Iran. For example, a noted CIA assessment of Iran in the fall of 1978 predicted there was no prospect for an Islamic revolution -- a prediction that proved wrong within five months.

What could go wrong?

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 6:05 PM