Israel Matzav

The next war in Lebanon and Syria will be short

Noah Pollack says that Israel's next war with Hezbullah, Lebanon and Syria will likely be short.

The war calculations of Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah involve an estimation of how much time the Obama administration will give Israel to fight. In 2006 — very much owing, of course, to Israel’s poor performance — the IDF fought for only a month before accepting terms from the UN. There are good reasons to believe that next time, Israel will have even less time.

A new war would explode the myth that Obama’s outreach to the Arabs and pressure on Israel have set the Middle East on a new path. Israeli-Arab wars, this narrative holds, were the kind of things that happened during the Bush years, when the president ignored the peace process and alienated Muslims, and neocons imperiled world peace before breakfast. To have a war unfold in the enlightened, post-Cairo speech era, after dozens of visits by George Mitchell to the region — that would be quite an embarrassment.

How many days — much less weeks — would pass before Obama began criticizing the Israeli operation and refusing diplomatic protection at the UN?

The resistance groups are surely counting on America to enforce a short conflict that restricts the IDF’s ability to strike back forcefully at Hezbollah. But it is not clear, given Obama’s declining political fortunes, how much leverage he will have over Israel. In private, the Arabs will be telling Obama to let Israel finish the job. What Nasrallah is counting on, Obama may not be able to deliver. Or may choose not to. Or F-16s may begin sorties over Damascus. The uncertainty about where America stands is dangerous.

Wars between Israel and the Arabs generally operate on a simple rule: As soon as Israel starts to win, the Security Council imposes a cease fire. The two exceptions to that rule were the Second Lebanon War and Operation Cast Lead, in each case owing to the Bush administration being in power (you will recall that the Obama administration forced Israel to stop Operation Cast Lead in time for The One's inauguration).

We will definitely have less time than in either of those wars. What could go wrong?

Read the whole thing.

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 5:19 AM